1. Update and Next Steps Green Ribbon Committee September 8, 2010 Adaptation Strategy Richard M. Daley, Mayor

2. 1 Adaptation agenda Copyright 2010, City of Chicago Review of impacts research Overview of climate impacts on Chicago: Temperature, Precipitation, Water Systems, Ecosystems, Health, Infrastructure Approach Next Steps 1

3. 2 Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2010 predictions show that the Midwest could experience 45-85 days over 95° Fahrenheit by the end of the century, far more than the 31 days projected in 2007 Temperature: A warmer Chicago Chicago Metropolitan Area Annual Average Temperatures Observations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios

4. 3 Midwest Seasonal Precipitation Events Projections under High Emissions Scenario 2010-20392040-2069 Winters and Springs Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, 2040 springs could have 20% more precipitation events and summers could have 10% fewer Precipitation: Wet winters & springs and dry summers Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. Summers % changes relative to a 1961-1990 average

5. 4 Great Lake Water Levels Observations and projections under High Emissions Scenario Facts: - In a high-emissions scenario, Great Lake Water levels could remain constant due to a balance between increased precipitation and evaporation. However, by 2020, evaporation could surpass precipitation, thus decreasing Lake levels - Lake Michigan water levels could decline by 1.5 feet by the end of the century Water systems: Changing Great Lake water levels Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

6. 5 Source: Hayhoe. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009. Ecosystems: Changing Plant Hardiness Zones Midwest Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones Observations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios Facts: - From 1990-2006, Northern IL shifted from Plant Hardiness Zone 5 to 6, representing a 10° Fahrenheit range change in the lowest temperature of the year - In a high-emissions scenario, Midwest Plant Hardiness Zones could shift 1 full zone every 30 years

7. 6 Fact: In a high-emissions scenario, Chicago could experience 1,200 heat-related deaths per year by 2085 Health: Increasing heat-related risks Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010. Chicago Metropolitan Area Heat-Related Deaths Observations and projections under multiple emissions scenarios

8. 7 Infrastructure: Increasing need for resources Chicago Metropolitan Area ComEd Territory Electricity Demand Projections under High Emissions Scenario Fact: In a high emissions scenario, Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd) Chicago electricity demand could increase by 2.2% by end of century relative to 2000-2005 consumption Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2010.

9. 8 Research Approach Continuous improvement of our work on Adaptation Next Steps Adaptation agenda

10. 9  Drive adaptation actions at the municipal government level  Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve adaptation goals  Prioritize most at-risk communities  Balance the need for more research with the need to act  Enhance collateral benefits of mitigation Chicago’s Adaptation drivers

11. 10 Our Adaptation work has evolved over time 2007200820092010 Understood the climate science: High & low emissions climate projections and potential impacts Assessed economic risk: Municipal cost of doing nothing projected to be $2.54 billion under a high-emissions scenario Developed adaptation action framework: Prioritizing adaptation actions by risk & urgency Created 5 working groups: 15 City Departments & 6 sister Agencies create 39 “Adaptation Tactics” for 5 working groups (Extreme Precipitation, Extreme Heat, Infrastructure, Ecosystems, Communications/ Leadership/ Planning) Launched Chicago Climate Action Plan: Mayor launches CCAP in September 2008 Created department work plans: City Departments commit to implementing adaptation actions through CCAP work plans Hosting “Lessons Learned” meetings: Improving responses to extreme weather events Forming Adaptation Advisory Group: Will provide guidance and oversight Work divided according to three targets of adaptation: People Built environment Natural environment (led by Aaron Durnbaugh - DOE) Adaptation work pre-dates CCAP launch and Lead-by-Example workplanning process Working groups originally created around climate change impacts, now created around targets of adaptation Varying levels of working group leadership and progress to date Key Observations:

12. 11 We are currently preparing for climate change in three ways Built environment Natural environment People Communication

13. 12 Work is being reorganized around the three targets of adaptation  Prepare City staff and Chicagoans to respond to the effects of an altered climate  Prepare our built environment for the effects of an altered climate B) Built environment  Prepare our ecosystems for an altered climate C) Natural environmentA) People Description Action Former working groups  Extreme heat (human response only)  Extreme precipitation (human response only)  Public health  Communications, leadership, & planning  Extreme precipitation  Extreme heat  Stormwater management (not Green Infrastructure)  Buildings, infrastructure, equipment  Ecosystems Illustrative Lead-By- Example Initiatives  Manage Stormwater  Install rain-blockers for sewer intakes (DWM)  Develop watershed plan (MWRD/DOE/DWM)  Install A/C in schools (CPS)  Evaluate cooling center capacity (DOE, CHA)  Plant trees (DSS)  Measure the performance of different species in different environments (DSS, Parks)  Monitor health effects of climate change (CDPH)  Update emergency operations plan for entire City, including warning systems and proactive responses to the health effects of climate change (CDPH)  Create flood plan (OEMC)

14. 13 Sample climate change adaptation tasks completed to date (1/2)  Developed cross-organizational Extreme Weather Operations Plan  Enhanced Extreme Heat Precaution materials with Ozone-related information  Prepared cooling center survey to determine constituent needs in event of extreme heat  Influenced market for high albedo materials  Piloted high-albedo materials for roofs and streetscapes  Prepared electric grid for higher peak / summer loads due to A/C usage B) Built environmentC) Natural environmentA) People Temperature Precipitation  Developed cross-organizational Extreme Weather Operations Plan, including extreme precipitation emergencies  Managing Stormwater at Home; Plant a Rain Garden in Your Yard; rain barrel distribution  Created Stormwater Management Framework and reduced impervious surface area by 55 acres through Stormwater Management Ordinance  Influenced market for permeable paving materials  Installed 120+ green alleys & streets, monitored performance  Began assessment of existing plans for climate readiness including Calumet Hydrologic Master Plan  Developed a trunk sewer model for 775 miles of pipe to help prioritize resource allocation  Established the Chicago Trees Initiative and increased tree canopy  Created Urban Forest Agenda  Maintained natural reserves through Greencorps Chicago  Increased tree canopy cover to 17%  Restored Calumet, Indian Ridge, and Hegewisch Marshes  Piloting landscaping / bioswales to reduce stormwater burdens on sewer system (M) Impacts of climate change Target of adaptation work

15. 14 B) Built environment  Piloted alternative tree planting conditions  Convened Urban Ecology Adaptation Working Group  Crafted the Invasive Species Ordinance for terrestrial and aquatic species C) Natural environmentA) People Water Systems Health Ecosystems  Created Air Quality Action Agenda  Heightened awareness to mediate CC-health effects Impacts of climate change Target of adaptation work  Developed Climate Action Plan for Nature  Communicated to residents and businesses about which species to plant & how to preserve wildlife habitats  Advanced TARP / water storage Infrastructure  Reduced road salt usage  Reinvigorated catchbasin control (fka rainblockers)(M)  Measured resiliency of alternative roadway materials. Sample climate change adaptation tasks completed to date (2/2)  Expanded use of wetland water control structures  Prepare clinics for increased traffic during CC-related events  Piloting landscaping / bioswales to reduce stormwater burdens on sewer system (M)

16. 15 Research Approach Next Steps Adaptation agenda

17. 16 Current priorities Implementation  Incorporate adaptation work planning into 2010 Lead-By- Example department and sister agency workplanning process  Refine working groups and identify leaders  Create geospatial mapping tool to direct CCAP investment  Leverage existing City processes and plans to serve adaptation goals  Form and convene new Adaptation Advisory Group in order to:  Identify metrics and measure progress toward climate adaptation / resiliency  Give input to adaptation communications  Identify funding needs and financial resources  Advise on other gaps as they arise

18. 17 Appendix

19. 18 Capturing Stormwater On-Site vs. Manage Stormwater  Adaptation Action #1 – Infrastructure  Mitigation Action #26 Capture Stormwater On-SiteManage Stormwater  Build green alleys (CDOT)  Use permeable pavement and bioswales wherever possible (CDOT, CHA)  Evaluate opportunities for stormwater retention during development of Green & Healthy neighborhood plans (DZLUP)  Collaborate on greywater reuse policy (CDPH)  Install rain-blockers for sewer intakes (DWM)  Develop watershed plan (MWRD/DOE/DWM) Action Example Initiatives  Collaborate with the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District on a Chicago watershed plan which factors in increased precipitation due to climate change  Use green infrastructure to reduce energy for water pumping and filtration as well as the demands on stormwater management systems Description

20. 19 Manage Stormwater Capture Stormwater On-Site Rate of rainfall Time ILLUSTRATIVE: (Inches per hour) (Hours) Capturing stormwater on-site effectively lowers the amount of stormwater which must be managed while saving energy normally used to pump that water Rainfall in a given rainstorm Key takeaway

21. 20 Capture Stormwater On-Site Manage Stormwater Total amount of rainfall in storm (Inches) Number of Storms Storms in a given season ILLUSTRATIVE: While green infrastructure alone can handle the rainfall from most storms, stormwater management plays a crucial role in handling the largest storms Key takeaway

22. 21 “Migrating climate” analogues Summers: hot and humid Winters: warmer, but just as much snow SUMMER WINTER Inconsistencies: Changes will not be consistent across seasons Source: Hayhoe et al. (2010) 21

23. 22 2010-20392040-20692070-2099 A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS B1 LOWER EMISSIONS oCoC Chicago: warmer winters 22 TEMP

24. 23 2010-20392040-20692070-2099 A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS B1 LOWER EMISSIONS oCoC Chicago: much warmer summers 23 TEMP

25. 24 Copyright 2010, City of Chicago 24 Precipitation: Chicago’s wetter winters and springs 2010-20392040-20692070-2099 A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS B1 LOWER EMISSIONS % Source: Hayhoe et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research (2010) Periods of precipitation and dryness will be enhanced when they are least needed.

26. 25 2010-20392040-20692070-2099 A1fi HIGHER EMISSIONS B1 LOWER EMISSIONS Chicago: drier summers %

27. 26 Six Climate Change Impacts for Chicago Source: “High-Resolution Climate Projections: Connecting Global Change to Local Impacts,” Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, Expert Reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1.Temperature 2.Precipitation 3.Water Systems 4.Ecosystems 5.Health 6. Infrastructure