1. Marriage and Cohabitation in Contemporary China
Yu Xie
University of Michigan and
Peking University

2. Part I: Traditional Chinese Family

3. Importance of family in Chinese culture
(1) Family is cherished in folk religion.
Ancestors are worshiped.

6. “If you are not filial to parents, it is useless to pray to God”

7. Importance of family in Chinese culture
(2) Filial piety is considered an important character (or merit), especially important for public figures. (Can be basis for promotion.)

8. Importance of family in Chinese culture
(3) Family is an extremely important source of support (money, emotion, education, old-age support, etc.).
Informal/Internal transfers of resources

9. Erosion of the Traditional family in Contemporary China?
Yes, to some extent.
It’s part of a global phenomenon, “Second Demographic Transition.”

10. Second Demographic Transition
Main driving force: individual freedom, as a result of further economic development.
Main institution being affected: the family.
Main indicators of the second demographic transition.

11. Main Indicators of the Second Demographic Transition
Late age of marriage.
Premarital sex.
Non-marital cohabitation.
Widespread of divorce.
Children born to unmarried mothers.
Children raised by single/divorced parents.

12. Part II: China versus Asia

13. Social/Economic Changes in Asia
GDP per capita (PPP adjusted)a
Year
China
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
1970
361
13,773
2,808
3,539
1975
429
15,933
3,788
4,932
1980
563
18,749
5,179
7,424
1985
960
21,919
7,191
9,263
1990
1,154
27,718
11,643
13,638
1995
1,931
28,970
15,889
18,542
2000
2,822
29,790
18,729
23,065
2005
4,335
31,380
22,577
26,693
2010
7,130
31,447
26,609
32,105

14. Has the Second Demographic Transition Occurred in Asia?
Total fertility rate
Year
China
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
1970
5.5
2.1
4.5
3.7
1975
3.8
1.9
3.4
3.0
1980
2.6
2.5
1985
1.8
1.7
1990
2.3
1.5
1.6
1995
1.4
2000
2005
1.3
1.1
2010
1.2
0.9

15. Has the Second Demographic Transition Occurred in Asia?
Mean age at first marriage (men)
Year
China
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
1970 --
26.9
27.1
1975
27.0
27.4
26.6
1980 25
27.8
27.3
1985
28.2
28.4
1990 24
29.0
1995
28.5
30.1
2000
28.8
29.3
30.3
2005 27
29.8
30.9
30.6
2010 26
30.5
31.8

16. Summary Late age of marriage (Mu and Xie 2014; Yu and Xie 2013)
Low fertility (well known)
Relatively high cohabitation rate (Yu and Xie 2014)
Relatively high divorce rate (to be studied)
Women’s high level of education and high level of labor force participation (Wang and Xie 2013)
Relatively high rate of nuclear family form (Chu et al 2011; Xu et al. 2014)
Few to nil out-of-wedlock births (known; to be studied)

17. Part III: Determinants of Marriage

18. General Observations
Women’s education attainment has reached parity with men.
Economic factors have become important determinant of marriage (Yu and Xie 2013).
Local housing price has deterring effects on age of marriage (Yu and Xie 2013).
Hypergamy marriage pattern persists.
Age gap between husband and wife has increased (Mu and Xie 2014).

19. A Key Finding of Mu and Xie (2014)

20. Changes in the Determinants of Marriage Entry in Post-Reform Urban China
(Yu and Xie 2013)
Background
China has a tradition of early and universal marriage.
During the economic reform, China has undergone many social changes, including consumer revolution, SOE reform, housing reform.
After the economic reform, marriage is now a manifestation of stratification; economic prospect has become an important determinant of marriage.

21. Figure 1a. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of transitions to first marriage for urban males by education
(2005 Mini Census Data)

22. Figure 1.b Kaplan-Meier survival curves of transitions to first marriage for urban females by education
(2005 Mini Census Data)

23. Research Questions
Have economic variables become more important in predicting marriage formation?
Do local housing prices mediate the relationship between an individual’s economic status and his/her marriage behavior?

24. Data and Variables Data Method Variables
2003 and 2008 China General Social Survey (Urban Residents)
Method
Discrete-time hazard model
Variables
Birth Cohorts
Pre-reform cohort (born before 1960)
Early-reform cohort (born from 1960 to 1973)
Late-reform cohort (born after 1974)
Time-invariant
Father’s education; Ethnicity
Time-variant
Age (spline function); Years of schooling; Enrollment ;Work status: unemployment, employed in state sector, employed in non-state sector; Hukou
City-level variable
Housing price (inflated by CPI, from 1991 to 2008)

25. Transition to First Marriage for Men: hazard model logit coefficients
VARIABLES
Pre-reform Cohort
(N=15,107)
Early-reform Cohort
(N=11,068)
Late-reform Cohort
(N=5,573)
Work status (RG: Employed in non-state sector )
Unemployment
-0.138
-0.510***
-1.975***
(0.113)
(0.178)
(0.486)
Employed in state sector
0.307***
0.229**
-0.092
(0.077)
(0.096)
(0.148)
Years of schooling
-0.016
-0.052***
-0.101***
(0.011)
(0.016)
(0.027)
Age (spline function)
15-21
0.431***
0.647***
0.671***
(0.036)
(0.0519)
(0.0931)
22-25
0.365***
0.351***
0.483***
(0.029)
(0.034)
(0.054)
26-30
-0.067
0.150*
(0.032)
(0.049)
(0.079)
31-
-0.078***
0.202**
0.223
(0.019)
(0.082)
(0.296)
 Other Variables Controlled(Father’s education, Ethnicity, Enrollment, Hukou ) 

26. Housing Reform and Housing Prices (Song and Xie 2014)
Housing reform ( ) changed housing as a danwei benefit to be a commodity purchasable on the market.
Led to sharp increases in both housing stock and housing prices.
Economic determinants have become more important

28. Education’s role is up; cadre’s role is down
Market factors have become more important as housing determinants over time (Song and Xie 2014)
Education’s role is up; cadre’s role is down
1988
1995
2002
Years of schooling
0.013***
0.032***
0.054***
(0.001)
(0.003)
Cadre
0.089***
0.070***
0.106***
(0.014)
(0.019)
(0.024)

29. Regional Variation
Regional variation is huge in China

30. Housing Price and Men’s Age of Marriage

31. Transition to First Marriage for men and women: interaction with housing price (Yu and Xie 2013)
Male
Female
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Schooling Years
-0.113***
-0.229***
-0.130***
-0.175***
(0.032)
(0.053)
(0.027)
(0.037)
Housing price
(10000 RMB)
0.360
-5.490**
-0.152
-2.951*
(0.487)
(2.166)
(0.404)
(1.639)
Housing price*schooling years
0.462***
0.226*
(0.166)
(0.128)
Constant
-18.90***
-18.48***
-22.26***
-22.05***
(2.530)
(2.550)
(3.201)
(3.207) N
3,914
4,629
a. The sample is restricted to the respondents born after 1976, since the data of house price begins from 1991.
b. The unit of the house price is 10 thousand RMB per square meter.

32. Figure 2.a Varying Effects of Years of Schooling on Marriage Risk at Different Levels of Housing Price for Men

33. Figure 2b. Varying Effects of Years of Schooling on Marriage Risk at Different Levels of Housing Price for Women

34. Summary
In general, employment status has become increasingly important for marriage formation for men in urban China.
The advantage of working in state sector in marriage formation process has declined in recent decades for both men and women.
The effect of educational attainment varied with local housing price for both men and women.

35. Part IV: Cohabitation

36. Cohabitation in China: Social Determinants and Consequences
(Yu and Xie 2014)
Motivation
Cohabitation in China has seldom been studied.
Due to lack of suitable data.
The aim of this paper is to provide national estimates of cohabitation in China for the first time. We focus on
Prevalence
Social determinants
Demographic consequences
The value of studying cohabitation when it just became accepted. Who starts the practice, high status or low status people? Diffusion across social groups.

37. Chinese Context
Social environment
Closed-door policy has been broken by the reform that began in 1978.
Chinese people have gradually become more familiar with Western culture through various channels.
Ideological environment
Collectivism during Mao era
Rise in individualism:
Weaken the restriction of traditional norms on individual behavior, more emphasis on individual interest
Tolerance of premarital sex
Protection of personal privacy

38. Contextual Factors Economic and institutional environment
University expansion→ without the supervision of parents for college students
Housing reform in urban areas
Legal description: change the wording from “illegal cohabitation” to “non-marital cohabitation”
Increase in divorce rate and delay in first marriage age

39. Data and Variables
China Family Panel Studies (2010 and 2012)
Analytical Sample: people born before 1980.
Dependent variable
Whether cohabitated with the first marriage spouse before first marriage (1=yes).
Explanatory variables
Socio-economic status: schooling years
Family background: father’s education and CCP membership
Institutional conditions: hukou and CCP membership
Economic development: county GDP per capital
Controls
Birth cohort, ethnicity, sample region

40. Cohabitation before marriage by cohort of first marriage and education (Xie et al. 2013)
Non-cohabitation
Cohabitation
Total (obs.)
1970 prior
98.2
1.8
(1876)
1970~1979
98.0
2.0
(1647)
1980~1989
95.0
5.0
(2763)
1990~1999
87.9
12.1
(2283)
2000~2012
67.4
32.6
(2765)
Non-cohabitation
Cohabitation
Total (obs.)
Husband
Education
Illiterate
94.3
5.7
100.0 (2507)
Primary School
89.8
10.2
100.0 (2625)
Middle School
85.1
14.9
100.0 (3432)
High School
82.9
17.1
100.0 (1512)
College and Above.
77.3
22.7
(784)
Wife
95.6
4.4
100.0 (4496)
86.8
13.2
100.0 (2257)
81.8
18.2
100.0 (2676)
81.0
19.0
100.0 (1148)
74.5
25.5
(604)

41. Logit model for cohabitation experience before first marriage (Yu and Xie 2014)
Male
Female
Schooling years
0.018*
0.003
Father’s education (RG: Primary school)
Middle school
0.053
0.028
High school
-0.087
0.361**
College
0.338
0.073
Missing
0.100
-0.056
Father’s CCP (RG: Non-CCP)
CCP members
-0.112
-0.079
0.058
0.137
Urban hukou
0.246***
0.177*
CCP member
-0.230*
-0.389*
County-level GDP per capital (10000RMB)
0.073***
0.098***
Other variables controlled N
14,862
15,148

42. Consequence for Divorce? (Cox model, Yu and Xie 2014)
Men
Women
Cohabited before first marriage
0.514***a
-0.091
(0.149)
(0.215)
Other variables controlled
Observations
12,862
13,158
It’s puzzling that the results differ between men and women.
One possibility is that women may underreport divorce or
Cohabitation.

43. Consequence for Premarital Pregnancy? (logit model, Yu and Xie 2014)
Men
Women
Cohabited before first marriage
0.967***
0.932***
(0.104)
(0.116)
Other variables controlled
Observations
12,862
13,158

44. Summary: Differences and similarities and between China and US (Yu and Xie 2014)US
China
Men
Women
Determinants (different)  
Own SES
Negative
Positive
No difference
Family background
Urban residents
Political status
Economic development
Consequences (similar)  
Marital stability
Insignificant
Premarital childbearing

45. Thank You!