1. Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes National Botanical Institute, Cape Town With acknowledgements: Paul Williams, London Nat Hist Mus

3. Conservation investment

4. Conserve species under natural conditions Conserve ecosystems and their natural processes Conserve habitats for maintaining biodiversity Maintain key processes (eg water yield) Support tourism and ecotourism Support livelihoods (eg wildflower, medicinal) Support commercial agri-business

5. Protected Areas often selected ad hoc, developed before good species data were available, on land not wanted or less valuable Biodiversity no longer static, but dynamic! Conservation investment

6. We address two main problems How to predict climate change impacts on ecosystems and species (biodiversity) How to assess ability of conservation strategies (current PA network) to cope with these impacts

7. Species distribution Bioclimatic modeling method Environmental variables 34 o 36 o

8. # records 34 o 36 o Maximum temperature Max temp envelope Species distribution Bioclimatic modeling method Environmental variables 34 o 36 o

10. Automated methods Arcview Access SPlus Grads Data matching Species data Statistical model Climate data Future projection risk assessment

11. Protea Atlas database (NBI) 330 species (Proteaceae), ~ 40 000 localities

12. HadCM2

13. Overall threat of climate change to Proteaceae diversity

14. Fynbos Biome distribution: current and future Lowland species Montane species

15. Leucospermum tomentosum distribution: current and ~2050 (HadCM2 excluding sulphates)

16. Protea lacticolor distribution: current and future (HadCM2 excluding sulphates) 20 km

17. contract (highest risk) persist (safe) colonize (high risk) Displacement risk = 1 – persist/current

18. Proteaceae - displacement risk

19. contract (highest risk) persist (safe) colonize (high risk) Extinction risk proportional to range loss (with and without dispersal)

21. Uncertainties Climate scenarios Spatial climate data (historic, current) Species distribution data Bioclimatic modelling approach Human land use Dispersal and establishment

22. Ant-dispersal Wind-dispersal Knowledge about dispersal syndromes is critical

23. Range size changes (HadCM2) (~250 Proteaceae, 2000 to ~2050)

24. Automated methods Arcview Access SPlus Grads Data matching Species data Statistical model Climate data Future projection risk assessment Dynamic range modelling method Protected area risk analysis Simple range shift assumptions

25. Time-slice models 20002010 2020 2030 20402050 (se scop)

26. Richness of dispersal pathways for the 18 species that are committed to migration

27. Human land use, intensity of transformation Dispersal pathways

28. Automated methods Arcview Access SPlus Grads Data matching Species data Statistical model Climate data Future projection risk assessment Dynamic range modelling method Protected area risk analysis Simple range shift assumptions