1. The New Ocean Management Paradigm Lessons from the Scotian Shelf Bob O’Boyle Bedford Institute of Oceanography Canada

2. 20 th Century Ocean Management Paradigm Sector by sector approach Sector by sector approach –Objectives related to a sector’s impact & requirements –Management by sector with little consideration of cross – sector impacts Sector = Fisheries, oil & gas, recreation, etc

3. Consensus for New Approach Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that require new way of doing business Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that require new way of doing business –Ecosystem responses cannot be predicted by understanding individual mechanics of component parts Need to manage for objectives related to multiple ecosystem services Need to manage for objectives related to multiple ecosystem services –Sustainable fisheries, clean water, recreation, etc

4. We are in midst of paradigm shift in ocean management Early in process but outline is emerging

5. New Ocean Management Paradigm Ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or Ecosystem Based Management Ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or Ecosystem Based Management –Ecologically - based principles –Cumulative & long-term impacts –Cross – sector management Management strategy evaluation (MSE) Management strategy evaluation (MSE) – of candidate management strategies –Comparative performance of candidate management strategies –Consideration of uncertainty in each element of management system

6. Management Strategy Evaluation Ecosystem MonitoringAssessment Control Rules Decision Making Implementation From McAllister et. al. 1999 Control Module Operational Module Management Strategy Assessment, control rules & implementation

7. EcosystemObjectives How to identify in face of conflicting priorities How to achieve with state of current knowledge EAM MSE Objectives for delivery of ecosystem services essential to new paradigm

8. Types of Ecosystem Objectives Conceptual (policy level) Conceptual (policy level) –Understandable to broad audience –E.g. Restore Coral Community Biodiversity to pre-1980 levels Operational (regulatory level) Operational (regulatory level) –Links conceptual objective & management action –E.g. Limit Area (sq Km) disturbed of Coral Community to 5000 sq km Indicator Reference Point

9. Ecosystem Objectives Hierarchy Overarching Conceptual Objectives Regional Regional Operational Objectives Sector Link to Treaties, Acts, Legislation & Policy Link to Overarching COs Regional Priorities Monitor Ecosystem States Control Cumulative Impacts Control Sector Impacts E.g. Gulf of Maine E.g. Fishery

10. Scotian Shelf Overarching Objectives Conserve biodiversity Conserve biodiversity –Conserve community diversity –Recover species at risk of extinction –Conserve subpopulation & genetic structure Maintain productivity Maintain productivity –Maintain linkages along food chain (e.g. predators & prey) –conserve ecosystem components at each level of food chain Conserve habitat Conserve habitat –Conserve physical & chemical properties

11. Lessons learned Overarching Objectives Hierarchical structure to objectives useful Hierarchical structure to objectives useful –Transparent translation of general intent of management to sector management actions –Coordinates management of cumulative impacts as long as same objectives used throughout hierarchy Don’t fret about objectives structure itself Don’t fret about objectives structure itself –Different ways to package same concepts as long as ecosystem structure & function addressed

12. Issue for conference What are overarching objectives for Gulf of Maine?

13. Regional Objectives Ecosystem Characterization Ecosystem description Ecosystem description –Key components –Key linkages Scotian Shelf changes during 1980s & 1990s modeled Useful to synthesize in model

14. Regional Objectives Threats Analysis Issue for conference What are sectors & their impacts in Gulf of Maine?

15. Initial set of objectives developed through bottom – up stakeholder engagement process Initial set of objectives developed through bottom – up stakeholder engagement process DFO Science undertaking top – down process independent of stakeholder process DFO Science undertaking top – down process independent of stakeholder process –Intent is to adjust initial set based upon highest priorities for conservation (ecological & biological significant areas & species) Regional Objectives Scotian Shelf Issue still to be addressed is how to marry two sets of priorities

16. Lessons Learned Regional objectives Develop conceptual model of ecosystem Develop conceptual model of ecosystem –Statement of current knowledge Develop scenarios of potential future states Develop scenarios of potential future states –Focus on key components & thresholds to watch for –Engage stakeholders in direction of management Risk analysis to identify ecosystem components to protect Risk analysis to identify ecosystem components to protect –Develop indicators, reference points & management actions for high risk impacts From Link et. Al., 2002 RISK impact * probability of not achieving objective

17. Issues for conference What are priority conservation issues for Gulf of Maine? What is role of science & stakeholders in setting conservation priorities for Gulf of Maine?

18. Sector Implementation Regional objectives being incorporated into 40+ Scotian Shelf fishery management plans Regional objectives being incorporated into 40+ Scotian Shelf fishery management plans –Identifies what issues are being addressed –Identifies gaps that need attention Action Needed Addressed Georges Bank

19. Lessons Learned Sector Implementation Incorporate regional objectives into existing sector management planning & activities Incorporate regional objectives into existing sector management planning & activities –Identify gaps & address Undertake Management Strategy Evaluation to determine most robust means for each sector to achieve objectives Undertake Management Strategy Evaluation to determine most robust means for each sector to achieve objectives

20. Governance Forum for broad- based engagement Stakeholder advisory group Decision-makers Fisheries Oil & Gas Transport NGOs Public Science Issue: How much consensus?

21. Lessons Learned Governance Stakeholders Stakeholders –Broad-based to represent diversity –Focus to facilitate objective setting & scenario development Regulators Regulators –Implementation of new paradigm requires regulators to be on side: cultural shift Build governance structures on what exists Build governance structures on what exists – –Illustrate how existing activities fit into new paradigm

22. Lessons Learned (cont'd) Governance Science Science –Use objectives to define key science priorities & link funding to management deliverables –Design science programs for new paradigm: may involve new institutions

23. Issue for conference What is an effective governance structure for the Gulf of Maine?

24. What Science is needed? Ecosystems are complex systems Ecosystems are complex systems –Unpredictable future states –Develop scenarios of potential future states Ecosystem modeling to identify Ecosystem modeling to identify –key ecosystem components & thresholds that cause changes in state –Important system feedbacks –Linkages between scales –Phase of adaptive cycle

25. Ecosystem Models PLAUSIBLE hypotheses of ecosystem functioning to explore importance of PLAUSIBLE hypotheses of ecosystem functioning to explore importance of –Diversity of communities –Functional groups & redundancies within communities –Linkages amongst communities Simulate plausible ecosystem states & how system might change between these Adaptive Cycle Community A Community D Community B Community D Synthesis of current understanding

26. Current knowledge will go only so far Need new theory & understanding

27. Biodiversity Community structure & dynamics Community structure & dynamics –How many communities are there, are they stable over time, is their spatial distribution predictable, how do they react to ocean climate? Genetic processes Genetic processes –What is impact of human activities on genetic selection? E.g. fishing on gadoid growth in Northwest Atlantic

28. NW Atlantic NE Atlantic Weight (kg) at Age 7 What are relative roles of environment & genetic selection on haddock growth? Observed in other species e.g. cod

29. Productivity & Food Chain Are food chains controlled top-down (by predators) or bottom-up (by food supply?) Are food chains controlled top-down (by predators) or bottom-up (by food supply?) Evidence to suggest that overfishing could flip ecosystem from bottom-up to top-down Evidence to suggest that overfishing could flip ecosystem from bottom-up to top-down –Need quantitative understanding of relationships amongst exploitation, biodiversity & ocean climate + - + - + - + Eastern Scotian Shelf

30. What are consequences for reference points of long- term ecosystem changes? What are consequences for reference points of long- term ecosystem changes? –What should current reference points be? e.g. Eastern Scotian Shelf cod Productivity & Reference Points Rosenberg et. al, 2005 Carrying Capacity

31. Spatial processes (small to large) Habitat - productivity linkage Habitat - productivity linkage –How are these linked? What is distribution of habitats of differing sensitivities? Why are they different & how do they respond to impact? Climate change Climate change –Promises to be most significant future impact on our ecosystems –Need to understand linkage between Shelf oceanography & broader climatology e.g. Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Gulf of Maine

32. Linkage of Scotian Shelf / Gulf of Maine with North Atlantic atmospheric systemLinkage of Scotian Shelf / Gulf of Maine with North Atlantic atmospheric system Different response to NAO north & south of HalifaxDifferent response to NAO north & south of Halifax NAO Winter Anomaly 1970 - 2003 bottom C 0 differences (neg - pos anomaly) Periodic? Predictable?

33. Issue for conference What are science needs of new paradigm for Gulf of Maine?

34. Summary In midst of ocean management paradigm shift In midst of ocean management paradigm shift Will take time & effort to change Will take time & effort to change –need to stay the course Challenges but opportunities too Challenges but opportunities too

35. Thank You!

36. Newfoundland 7570656055504540 35 40 45 50 55 60 Bottom Community Transition Zones When NAO Positive Tendency for Northern Transition Zone to move South & Southern Transition Zones to move North Are these patterns Predictable? How stable are these communities?

37. CommunityStructure&Dynamics Identified transitions in bottom communities consistent with circulation & mixing patterns Movement in transition zones in response to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) From Mahon et. al. 1998

38. Species Richness implicated (Frank et. al., 2007) Overfishing Reduces species richnessReduces species richness May cause flip from bottom – up to top – down controlMay cause flip from bottom – up to top – down control Need to develop quantitative understanding of relationships amongst exploitation & species richness & ocean climate

39. Spatial Processes Shelf Scale Natural bottom disturbance, productivity & bottom community distribution