1. Too many people? Too much consumption?
Module 3
 Population, Resources & Environment
Too many people? Too much consumption?
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2. OUTLINE Population Growth Demographic Transition Growth in consumption
Current Population Trends
Developed and Developing countries
Demographic Transition
A materializing economy
Growth in consumption
Materials and energy
Economies need ecosystems
Humans need Nature
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3. Sustainable Development
Sustainable development integrates economic progress, social development and environmental concerns.
The goals of economic and social development must be defined in terms of environmental sustainability in all countries of the world – developed and developing (Our Common Future, WCED, 1987).
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4. Agenda 21: Principles
1: Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature. 
4: In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it. 
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5. Agenda 21: Principles
7: States shall cooperate in a global partnership to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystems.
The developed countries acknowledge the particular pressures that they place on the global environment.
8: To achieve sustainable development and a higher quality of life for all people, States should:
reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and
promote appropriate demographic policies. 
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6. Scarcity and Abundance
200 years ago, there were abundant resources and scarce people
Today, there are abundant people and scarce resources
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7. Population and Consumption
Is Overpopulation the root cause of most environmental problems?
Is the population growth in developing countries causing most of the world's environmental problems?
The global environmental problem isn't just about the number of people, but the amount we all consume.
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8. World Population - the numbers
billion 
billion 
billion 
billion 
billion 
billion 
billion 
billion
billion 
billion 
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9. World Population Growth
The Logisitic Curve
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10. Population and Growth Rates
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11. Demographic Transition
A model of population growth based on historical, social, and economic development of Europe and N. America.
Stable pop. (high birth and death rates)
Death rate falls, population grows
Industrialization (economic development) - birth rate falls
Death rates and birth rates equilibrate
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13. Population Growth Slowing Down?
In 1998, the United Nations released its population update, reducing the projected world population for 2050 from 9.4 billion to 8.9 billion.
Of the 500 million drop, roughly two thirds is because of falling birth rates, but one third is the result of rising death rates.
Two regions where death rates are rising are sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent, which together contain 1.9 billion people, or one third of humanity.
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14. Current Population World population stands at about 6 billion.
Expect ~8 billion by 2025
Largest increase expected in developing countries.
Populations in the developed countries have stabilized:
But per capita material consumption has not.
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15. Human Population Impacts
Several factors determine the impact of a society on natural resources and the environment.
Population size
Population density
Level of materials and energy consumption
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16. Standard of Living Standard of living:
The necessities and luxuries essential to a level of existence that is customary within a society or culture.
Standard of living appears to be closely tied to energy consumption
This is a proxy for economic development
Developing countries aspire to the higher standard of living of developed countries
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17. Consumption
CONSUMERISM is a social and economic creed that encourages us to aspire to greater and greater consumption, regardless of the consequences
…. but there are consequences:
especially the environmental consequences of manufacturing and waste disposal
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18. Within a span of 200 years, the per capita energy consumption of industrialized nations has increased eight-fold.
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19. Per capita energy use, 1989 Kg of coal equivalent
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20. Growth in Consumption
Worldwide since 1950, the per capita consumption of materials and energy has skyrocketed:
Copper, meat, energy, steel, timber have doubled
Car ownership, cement have quadrupled
Plastic by 5-times
Aluminum by 7-times
Air travel by 33-times
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21. Consumption of Resources
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22. Human Carrying Capacity
The human population cannot increase indefinitely
In 1798, Thomas Malthus published his Essay on Population
Human population increases at a faster rate than the growth in the food supply
Therefore, the population will outgrow the ability of the Earth to feed us all
His timing might be off but many people feel that his original prediction is now coming true
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23. Human Carrying Capacity (2)
In range management, carrying capacity is defined as the maximum population of a given species that can be supported indefinitely in a specified habitat without impairing the productivity of that habitat.
Because of our seeming ability to increase human carrying capacity by eliminating competing species, importing locally scarce resources, and through technology, this definition does seem so directly applicable to humans.
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24. Humans and Nature
Despite our technical, economic and cultural accomplishments, humans remain ecological beings.
Like all other species, we depend for both basic needs and the production of artifacts on energy and material resources extracted from nature.
Furthermore, all energy and matter is eventually returned to the ecosphere as waste, where it must be assimilated.
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25. The secret life of a cup of coffee
From Colombia
Forest clearance
Pesticides
Local Pollution, water use, etc
To New Orleans
By freighter
Processing
Packaging, etc
To you
Transportation, merchandising, preparation, waste
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26. Stuff: The Secret Lives of Everyday Things
by John Ryan and Alan Durning
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27. Ecological Footprint
The land (and water) area required to support a defined human population and material standard indefinitely.
The index is expressed in terms of the area of ecologically-productive land used per capita by a population.
The global fair share of eco-productive land is 1.5 hectares per person
The average North American’s footprint is 8 to 10 hectares
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28. Ecosystem Services
The Earth's human economies would soon collapse without fertile soil, fresh water, breathable air, and an amenable climate
These are Nature's life-support services
The human economy depends on ecosystems
It’s not the other way around
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29. Natural Capital Natural capital consists of three major components:
non-renewable resources such as oil and minerals that are extracted from ecosystems, 
renewable resources such as fish, wood, and drinking water that are produced and maintained by the processes and functions of ecosystems, 
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30. Natural Capital (cont.)
environmental services such as maintenance of the quality of the atmosphere, climate, operation of the hydrological cycle including flood controls and drinking water supply, waste assimilation, recycling of nutrients, generation of soils, pollination of crops, provision of food from the sea, and the maintenance of genetic diversity (biodiversity). 
All these crucial services are generated and sustained by the functioning of ecosystems
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31. Forest Ecosystems
Goods Services
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32. Global Forests
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33. Sustainability: Two Sides
Ecological sustainability underpins socioeconomic sustainability
The necessary conditions for developing sustainability:
Securing a satisfactory quality of life for all (socioeconomic imperative). While
Reducing the Ecological Footprints of the industrialized countries (ecological imperative).
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34. Sustainability Gap
While the residents of the developed world consume on average three-times their fair share of sustainable global output, the basic needs of the world’s billion plus chronically poor are not being met.
More material growth, at least in the poor countries, seems essential for socioeconomic sustainability.
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35. Ecology Gap
According to Ecological Footprint analysis, the current level of global human consumption already exceeds the available ecological capacity of the Earth by 30%.
From this, any global increase in material and waste throughput seems ecologically unsustainable.
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36. The Sustainability Challenge
If we rely on conventional economic strategies and technologies to fix development problems, the additional material growth would further degrade already stressed global ecosystems.
Sustainable development is more than simple economic reform.
How can we decrease humanity’s total ecological impact while providing adequately for the needs of all humankind?
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37. Summary Conventional wisdom: Unconventional wisdom:
Global population cannot grow indefinitely
Unconventional wisdom:
Material consumption cannot grow indefinitely
Carrying capacity is limited by ecological resources
Sustainability means finding an ecological footprint that doesn’t stamp out global ecosystems
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