1. RURAL FUTURES: ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIES Dr Jane Adams

2. Current sustainable production model ECONOMIC SOCIAL AND ETHICALENVIRONMENTAL Strong Sustainability for New Zealand: Principles and Scenarios.2009 Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand Incorporated (SANZ)/ Nakedize Ltd

3. Future human impacts

4. Future sustainable production model BIOSPHERE SOCIOSPHERE ECONOSPHERE Strong Sustainability for New Zealand: Principles and Scenarios.2009 Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand Incorporated (SANZ)/ Nakedize Ltd

5. Pathway to sustainability

6. Pathway to sustainability: ZESPRI journey “ensuring a better quality of life for everyone, now and for generations to come.” 1 Issues to consider: Consumer pressure for a sustainable economy and means of production. Growing concerns about climate change. Green products and the rise of a “green market”. Actions toward sustainability. Source: S McLaren et al., 2008 Carbon Footprint for ZESPRI GREEN™ KIWIGREEN fruit shipped to the UK in 2007

7. Scenario: Future, sustainable rural economies More people employed in rural based economies More local production and processing of food, fibre, energy, biomaterials, pharmaceuticals, Local water conservation and energy supply- hydro, solar, wind, biofuels. Resource conservation- nutrients, key elements, oil and other fossil resources.

8. Trade: important but less volume, higher value

9. Ecosystem approach to development of rural economies Improved total productivity of managed lands. Improved resilience against environmental, social and economic changes High biodiversity and community interactions Efficient resource use Efficient nutrient use and recycling Zero waste

10. Future sustainable rural economies will provide services in a way that will Limit emissions into the atmosphere, discharges into waterways and the ocean, and chemicals into soil, to within the assimilative capacities of the relevant ecosystems. Substitute renewable resources for non-renewable resources wherever feasible and conserve non- renewable material resources within closed cycles.

11. Higher productivity- increase biodiversity

12. Shelter belts and plantations

13. Bush reserves, gullies, riparian strips

14. Ecotourism

15. Nutrient recycling and zero waste

16. Zero waste- Bioplastics- reusable or biodegradable

17. Regional and local provision of energy and water

18. Bus inesses to support management of rural production

19. Questions for science How do we assess modern and new technologies against requirements of sustainable ecosystems- no change in stability, resiliance, diversity – Genetic technologies especially transgenics – Nanotechnologies – Biopharming technologies How do we manage diverse activities and actors to ensure ecosystem functions optimally?

20. Questions for policy makers What social and legal structures are required to manage multiple resource users of private land. How do we account for environmental goods and services provided by activity of multi land owners- and by ecosystem services held in commons?

21. Conclusion Rural communities will be revitalised through provision of many new goods and services Food, fibers, biological products and renewable energy will increase in value. Trading will be important, but volumes lower, value higher. Greater local self sufficiency. Many new rural businesses. Clustered to optimise resource use and efficiency Total productivity from managed ecosystems increased through higher biodiversity.

22. Thank You Any Questions?