1. Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD Challenges and Opportunities Alain Vidal AKIS-ARCH Workshop, Brussels, 26-27 May 2014 Photo: A. Vidal

2. CGIAR Centers developed high yielding varieties for staple cereals that were the engine of the Green Revolution

3. CGIAR: agricultural research for a food-secure future

4. CGIAR’s research is carried out by 16 Research Programs (CRPs), working in close collaboration with hundreds of partners worldwide

5. Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD 3 examples Climate-Smart Agriculture  Combining mitigation and adaptation The Wheat initiative Ecological intensification through healthier water, land and ecosystems

6. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?

7. 2013 Why is CSA important? – Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming

8. 2013 Why is CSA important? – Food Security Maíz T-Max Yield Arroz Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it

9. 2013 Why is CSA important? – Mitigation Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands Industrial processes Waste Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO 2 e per year Non-Ag Energy 70 11 4 2

10. 2013 Why is CSA important? – Mitigation “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world Gt CO 2 e per year Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land- use change emissions >70% 48 85 21

11. 2013 Significant successes in CSA

12. Sequestration of carbon in soil and trees NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’  5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established Reduces drought impacts Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year

13. CHINA Paying for ecosystem services  2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon 2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion Increased yields

14. Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD) 30% water 20-50% GHG Without compromising yield Keep flooded for 1 st 15 days and at flowering Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 15.0 8.7 -42% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 t CO2-eq/ ha*season 4.9 3.9 -20% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -22% -28% 6.0 4.7 6.4 4.6 Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying Summer- Autumn Winter- Spring Sander et al. in press IRRI AWDConventional

15. Climate-smart coffee-banana systems  Microclimate: shading can reduce temperature by >2° Celsius  Shade biomass increases carbon stock→ CC mitigation  Shade plants increase revenue and food security for smallholders income up > 50% Van Asten et al (2014)

16. What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?  Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation. PRODUCTIVIT Y  Higher incomes for farmers  Healthier animals  Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure RESILIENCE Emission Reduction Potential: - 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO) - 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050 FOOTPRINT - 30% Emissions (Gt CO 2 -eq/yr) Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway: 3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr - 30%  Using already wide- spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management  Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency. Livestock: Higher productivity  Lower Emission Intensity Based on results of the GLEAM Model, FAO 2013, Extrapolations BAU With CSA 2C Pathway Emissions (kg CO 2 -eq/kg Milk) Milk Production per Cow Example Dairy: Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity. Analysis based on WRI 2013 Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha 140+ Million People below $1.25 per day

17. What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?  Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation. PRODUCTIVIT Y  Higher incomes for farmers  Healthier animals  Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure RESILIENCE Emission Reduction Potential: - 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO) - 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050 FOOTPRINT - 30% Emissions (Gt CO 2 -eq/yr) Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway: 3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr - 30%  Using already wide- spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management  Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency. Livestock: Higher productivity  Lower Emission Intensity BAU With CSA 2C Pathway Emissions (kg CO 2 -eq/kg Milk) Milk Production per Cow Example Dairy: Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity. Approximation of area suitable for Agroforestry and Water Harvesting in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha PRODUCTIVITY Multiple benefits include:  Reduced soil erosion  Additional diversified income from wood products  Strengthened drought resistance from increased water storage RESILIENCE FOOTPRINT  +615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people  Average yield increase 50%  Savings of over 6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizer Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on 300 Million Ha +44 Million Tons +88 Million Tons Food Production Carbon Sequestration - 1 Gt of CO 2 e per year - 2 Gt of CO 2 e per year Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on 300 Million Ha  2 Gt Co 2 e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions  Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.

18. Direct agricultural emissions are spread across regions and across production sectors 18 Source: FAOStat data from 2010 (accessed 2013); area of pie charts scaled to regional emissions. “Ag soils” includes synthetic fertilizers, manure applied to crops, field application of crop residues, and nitrous oxide from cultivated organic soils.

19. Mitigation opportunities by country 19 Source: CEA analysis. Mitigation opportunities are clustered primarily in the major agricultural economies.

20.  12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured INDIA Weather-based insurance Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation Reduces risks Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed

21. Adaptations to deal with higher climate variability and climate risks Towards more transformative change Better weather forecasts and climate information reaching farmers, governments, emergency relief Social safety nets to help vulnerable people recover from climate shocks Weather insurance in agriculture reaching more farmers

22. CSA Alliance: AR and ARD institutions united with International Organizations and NGOs

26. Minimum Goals for 2050 Environmental Goals Development Goals Total Agricultural Production Nutritionally Complete Production Biodiversity Conserved Carbon Sequestered Improved Water Quality Water Conserved Soil Formed Food Security Goals Food Distribution and Access Conserve agrobiodiversity Increased Farmer Livelihoods And Resilience Improve Human Health Increase Farm Self Reliance Adapted from Foley et al 2011 Production Goals An agriculture that contributes to environmental protection rather than environmental degradation

27. N-S Partnerships for ecological intensification

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