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UBS MLP Conference Las Vegas, Nevada September 18 & 19, 2008
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2 Forward Looking Statement The statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward- looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation. Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts. These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.
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3 The Global Coal Markets and their Impact on NRP
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Current Coal Market Coal prices have significantly increased in 2008 U.S. coal pricing with global coal World economic indicators point toward significant global coal demand and a supply shortfall –In spite of slowdown in worldwide economies, current U.S. production cannot meet demand –Additional coal plants are being constructed daily in many countries around the world –New Plants under construction could increase consumption by ~ 1 billion tons per year Bodes well for U.S. coal industry and NRP 4
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5 Coal – Fastest Growing Fuel in the World For the 5 th Straight Year – Coal is the fastest growing major fuel in the World Global Coal Consumption for 2007 of 4.5% was well above the ten year average of 3.2% Chinese share of world energy consumption growth in 2007 – 52% Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008
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6 Global Coal Consumption – Last Five Years Global Coal Consumption increased 32% between 2002 and 2007 China increased ~ 84% India increased ~ 37% Coal consumption has increased in every market around the globe except for the Middle East Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 MM tonnes
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7 Coal is on the Move
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8 Global Demand and the Domestic Coal Markets China doubled its annual coal production between 2000 and 2007 –Still cannot keep up with demand within China –Has gone from exporter to importer of coal –Taxes raised in 2008 to discourage exports China, India, East Asia and Europe importing coal –Freight rates give U.S. coal into Europe an advantage –Weakness in the U.S. dollar compared to Euro Problems in global coal deliveries creates extremely tight coal market –Australian infrastructure issues still exist –Power shortages due to lack of infrastructure in South Africa causes mines to shut down periodically Currently - no excess production in U.S. market Increasing exports boosting U.S. domestic coal prices Swing coals that were being sold into steam market are now going into met market causing shortages in the steam market
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Exports Increasing U.S. exports increasing – up 19% in 2007 over 2006 and rising –metallurgical coal at average price of ~ $89 per ton in 2007 –steam coal at average price of ~$48 per ton in 2007 Exports forecasted to increase by approximately 48% in 2008 over 2007 –Steam exports forecasted to increase by approximately 73% –Met exports forecasted to increase by approximately 28% Exports 2007 –Canada and Mexico ~ 35% –Overseas ~65% 9 Source: EIA and COALCAST
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Spot Steam Coal Price Comparisons Sept 12, 2008 1 month ago M/MYear End 2007 Year to date CAPP Big Sandy Rail 12,500/1.2 $129.00$144.00(10%)$56.25129% CAPP Barge NYMEX - spec 100.00115.75(14%)54.2584% NAPP Pittsburgh Seam 2.5 lbs 151.00145.004%62.50142% Illinois Basin Barge 11,800 90.0092.00(2%)36.00150% PRB 8800 11.5012.00(4%)12.15(5%) 10 Source: Argus Coal Weekly
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11 NRP Stands to Benefit
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12 NRP Investment Considerations A Proxy for the Coal Industry Landholding company –Lease reserves to coal mining companies –Receive royalty on production based on a % of the gross selling price 2.1 billion tons of coal reserves (22% metallurgical and 78% steam) 66 lessees produce approximately 5% of U.S. production from NRP’s 191 leases Three major coal producing regions in eleven states 2008 estimated production: 59 million tons to 65 million tons Coal royalty accounts for approximately 78% of NRP’s revenue stream Continue to Diversify Income Stream Coal Infrastructure and Transportation Aggregate Royalties Oil and Gas Royalties, Timber, Wheelage and other
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NRP - 25% of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Production 2007 U.S. Met Production ~ 52 million tons –Exports 32.2 million tons at an average price of ~$89/ton 2007 NRP Met Production ~ 13 million tons NRP Met Production First Half 2008 –26% of NRP’s total production and 36% of NRP’s coal royalty revenue –15 Lessees of which 8 are public companies 22% of NRP’s 2.1 billion tons of reserves are metallurgical NRP is highly leveraged to movements in metallurgical coal prices 13 Source: EIA and NRP
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14 Historical Performance Total RevenuesDistributable Cash Flow Increasing revenue stream provides for growing distributions In $millions 31% CAGR 27% CAGR ActualMidpoint of guidance
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15 Increased distributions last 20 consecutive quarters, 101% overall Distributions 101% Distribution Increase Increased Quarterly Distributions
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16 Acquisition Opportunities Active acquisition pipeline Right to acquire 3 billion tons of reserves from Cline Resources –Cline currently in the permitting process on three mines in the Illinois Basin –Recently received permit for the Gatling Ohio reserves Our sponsor owns over 20 billion tons of currently non-producing coal that must be offered to NRP when any property reaches a value of $10 million –Currently working on projects in both Montana and North Dakota Agreement with Taggart on coal preparation plants and coal handling facilities Recently increased efforts on Aggregate acquisitions
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17 Where are we going next?
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Short Term Outlook for Coal Markets World dynamics that would need to change to see significantly lower coal prices –China and India economies would need to slow significantly –Infrastructure problems in both Australia and South Africa need to be resolved –Much stronger dollar –Lower freight rates –Lower fuel, steel and labor costs Met prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010 are well positioned to remain strong Global demand and U.S. exports will continue to place upward pressure on domestic coal prices 18
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19 Long Term Outlook for the Coal Markets Strong demand next few years EIA expects total U.S. electricity sales to increase 50% by 2030 EIA expects U. S. coal fueled electricity to gain additional market share over the next 25 years growing to approximately 54% by 2030 from 49% today Developing nations around the globe are looking to coal to supply their energy needs creating increasing demand Source: EIA – Energy Information Agency and NRP
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Investment Highlights NRP to benefit from robust coal market –Significantly increased prices for both steam and metallurgical coal –Approximately 26% of first half 08 production was metallurgical –Highly leveraged to Appalachian and Illinois Basin price increases –While spot prices have retracted from their highs, still significantly above year end 2007 prices – bodes well for rollover of lessees’ contracts in 2009 Nearer term acquisition opportunities –Aggregates –Infrastructure Long term built in growth opportunities associated with Cline Resources and our sponsors 20
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