1. China: Today, Tomorrow and the Transition Kenneth W. Hunter Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland

6.  What is China  China and Our Common Global Agenda: Looking to 2013 and Beyond  China components of your alternative scenarios and plans

7. What is China?  What westerners see as tourists and observers vs. the big, diverse and intense China we experience  China by the maps  China by the numbers  Chinese and American traditions and temperament

8. Ken as tourist

9. What tourists and observers see

13. China for tourists and observers: the Sichuan earthquake

14. Experiencing China today  Big  Diverse  Intense

15. Big, diverse and intense: massive industrial operations

16. Big, diverse and intense: coal powered

17. Big, diverse and intense: largest car market

18. Big, diverse and intense: more cars

19. Big, diverse and intense: construction everywhere

20. Big, diverse and intense: more construction

21. Big, diverse and intense: massive cement operations

22. Big, diverse and intense: small farm agriculture

23. Big, diverse and intense: more farms

26. Big, diverse and intense: water

29. Big, diverse and intense: massive production facilities

30. Big, diverse and intense: worker protests

31. Big, diverse and intense: Massive Factory “Towns”

32. Big, diverse and intense: massive rail system development

33. Big, diverse and intense: massive port operations

34. Big, diverse and intense: shipping around the world

35. Big, diverse and intense: industrial and research parks

36. Big, diverse and intense: new environmental technology industry

37. Big, diverse and intense: more environmental industry

38. Big, diverse and intense: retailing is taking off

39. Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- IT

40. Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- finance

41. Big, diverse and intense: development of investment markets

42. Big, diverse and intense: huge reserves and currency pegged to dollar

43. Big, diverse and intense: military development

45. Big, diverse and intense: civilian aircraft development

46. China by the maps Make sure you are using the correct maps!

47. China by the maps: The World as Seen from America

48. China by the maps: Great River Systems

49. China by the maps: borders

50. China by the maps: Asia as Seen from Asia

51. China by the numbers

52. China by the numbers: Population Populations1.3 billion Rate of change0.5 Gender disparity115 males to 100 females Civilian labor force800 million Labor force distribution: Agriculture40 percent Mfg, mining, utilities, const.27 Services33

53. China by the numbers: Production GDP (PPP)$10 trillion GDP per capita (PPP)$7,500 Annual growth rate8 to 12 percent Origin of GDP: Agriculture11 percent Mfg, mining, utilities, const.49 percent Services40 percent

54. China by the numbers: foreign trade Exports: percent of GDP33 percent Imports: percent of GDP26 percent Major exports: Telecommunications equipment13 percent Computers11 Electrical and semiconductors11 Clothing 9

55. China by the numbers: foreign trade Imports: percent of GDP26 percent Major imports: Electrical and semiconductors20 Petroleum and products15 Iron and steel 9 Professional instruments 6

56. China by the numbers: foreign trade

57. China by the numbers: Reserves and Currency Value Foreign Exchange Reserves$2,850 billion Renminbi per dollar: 2005 and earlier8.2 20077.6 20086.9 Today6.6 Resumed gradual appreciation in June 2010

58. China and U.S. traditions and temperaments Chinese traditions and temperament 2,500 + years And United States traditions and temperament 250+ years

59. China and U.S. traditions and temperaments A basis for Convergence, Co-evolution or Conflict through the 21 st Century?

67. China and U.S. traditions and temperaments A basis for Convergence, Co-evolution or Conflict through the 21 st Century?

68. China and Our Common Global Agenda The Questions You Should Be Asking

70. China Component of Alternative Scenarios Ken’s Patterns of Change and Leadership and Luck Matrix

72. China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic Barring bad luck and bad leadership, China will complete its modernization to catch up and regain a leadership position in the world in the next few decades in a process of co-evolution with the West. Today all of the key elements of that modernization are mid- way (1979 to 2040) but have significant momentum:

73. China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic  Moving all China’s people out of poverty  Industrialization and urbanization within climate change limits on a per capita basis  Science and technology up to date in application with a few innovations  Governance institutions with high competence and much improved ethics but still as a one party system  Regional political, economic and security relationships stabilized but still stressed over water and supply chain protection  International relationships and participation on a basis of mutual respect and collaboration where needed

74. China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic The question: Does China have the momentum, capacity and resilience to survive the next globally cascading crisis and remain in a leadership position?

75. China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic If yes, China will participate in shaping the post-crisis global institutions, which will involve confronting complexity while modernizing, streamlining and rebalancing our institutions.

76. China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic If China fails, all the world will have a very large problem to deal with and the next global crisis likely will be very deep and very long in duration.

77. Questions Kenneth W. Hunter Senior Fellow Maryland China Initiative University of Maryland Tel: 410-925-7395 E-mail: khunter1@umd.edu or khunter100@aol.comkhunter1@umd.edu