1. Turkey’s Energy Policy (Week 13-14 )

2. Turkey’s Energy Profile As a fast-growing country, energy consumption in Turkey is on the rise. The Turkish electricity market is one of the fastest growing in the world, with approx. 7% annual growth on average. Natural gas demand is expected to increase as well. This growing demand require new investments.

7. Energy Demand Projection

8. Import Dependecy

22. Coal Map

38. 38 Turkey Wind Capacity and Utilisation Turkey’s Wind Atlas Turkey

42. Geothermal : The possible geothermal heating capacity is 31,500 MWt.(equal to5 million dwellings) 120 000 dwellings and 900.000 m2 green house heated by geothermal, Proven geothermal electricity capacity is 550 MWe, 29 MW installed

44. 44  Average annual solar radiation:1,311 kWh/m².  Average annual sunshine duration:2640 hours.  Technical potential :405 000 GWh, (DNI> 1800 kwh/m2-year).  Economic potential :131 000 GWh, (DNI> 2000 kwh/m2-year).  Solar energy is used especially as a thermal energy in Turkey. 400,000 Toe solar heating produced by 11 million m2 collectors, second in the world. annual production capacity is 1 million m².  Total installed photovoltaics capacity is approximately 1000 kW and But it is expected to increase PV usage next future. Solar Energy Potential

45. Solar Turkey is geographically well located with respect to solar energy potential. The average 2640 hours annual sunshine, solar intensity is 3.6 kWh /m²-day. Solar energy utilization in domestic hot water, collector capacity is approximately 18 million m² and the corresponding annual energy production is 420000 TOE.. Photovoltaic power installed capacity 1000 kWp.

47. Energy Intensity Energy Intensity is a measure of the energy “efficiency” of a nation's economy. High energy intensities indicate a high price or cost of converting energy into GDP. Low energy intensity indicates a lower price or cost of converting energy into GDP. So lower is better. Higher means more carbon emissions Turkey ( 0.38 consumption/GDP ) is over both OECD(0.19 con/GDP) and World (0.38) averages.

51. The Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Energy “Main target is to provide energy resources to all consumers adequately, high in quality, low in cost, secure and environmentally friendly ” and “reduce the import dependence of our country in energy supply” Reducing Turkey’s dependence on energy imports & increasing the amount of energy products that transport through Turkey.

52. Main priorities in Turkish energy policy: -To meet the energy demand by means of indigenous resources as much as possible; -To diversify energy services, particularly encouraging harnessing of renewables in electricity production, and in other alternative areas; -to increase efficiency in all segments of energy chain both in supply side and demand side; -To liberalize the energy sector to increase productivity and efficiency, to create a competitive energy market, and provide transparency

53. Rekabetçi/Serbest Enerji Piyasası

54. Goals of the Strategic Plan 1) Exploiting all domestic energy sources including hydrocarbons, renewables and building nuclear power plant. 2) Becoming a regional energy hub or energy center

57. Turkey’s Renewable Energy Support Mechanism (Law No.5346) Power plants that have come into operation since 18 May 2005 or will come into operation before 31 December 2015 will be eligible to receive feed-in tariffs for the first ten years of their operation. If the mechanical or electro-mechanical equipment of the power plant is produced locally, a premium shall be added to the feed- in tariffs during the first five years of operation.

61. Turkey goes Nuclear Energy Turkey has decided to have electricity generated from three nuclear power plants by the year 2023 with the expectation that approximately 20% of Turkey’s current established power will be generated from in-house nuclear power plants (ETKB,2012).

64. 64 Turkey’s Pipeline Strategy Ensuring its energy security is the core of the Turkish energy policy to sustain its growing economy. Efforts for the transportation of reserves located at the immediate neighbourhood to Western markets on the realization of the East-West Energy Corridor, often referred to as the Silk Road of the 21st Century. The pipeline projects linking the Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe will be essential for the region’s integration with the West.

67. 67 Turkey and the Sides of Energy Bridge Demand Side – The European Union Supply Side – The Caspian Basin – Russia – The Middle East – Eastern Med (?)

68. Turkey as a Transit Corridor ? Variety of pipelines, and other sorts of transportation. Not only for the Turkish market, but also for Europe and other markets via the Mediterranean.

69. Turkey as an Energy Hub ? A web of oil and gas pipelines as well as LNG trade, not only in terms of its ability to influence transit terms and conditions, but also in re- exporting some of the hydrocarbons passing through this system.

70. Turkey as an Energy Center ? Energy hub + massive energy investments. Sufficient energy intensity or efficiency & a sustainable energy mix A favorable balance between int. agreements, pipelines, domestic energy structure & energy mix. Conveying economic & strategic advantages, bolstering Turkey’s regional influence.

71. Four phases of Turkey’s Energy Ambitions 1. Early phase with political-cultural concerns: 1991- 1994. 2. East-West energy corridor originating from Caspian: 1994-2005. 3. East-West energy corridor originating from Eurasia and the Middle East: 2005-2009. 4. East-West & North-South energy transit hub originating from Russia, the Caspian Sea and the Middle East : 2010 and onwards.

72. 72 Turkey’s Pipeline Strategy Ensuring its energy security is the core of the Turkish energy policy to sustain its growing economy. Efforts for the transportation of reserves located at the immediate neighbourhood to Western markets on the realization of the East-West Energy Corridor, often referred to as the Silk Road of the 21st Century. The pipeline projects linking the Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe will be essential for the region’s integration with the West.

74. 74 Turkey and the Sides of Energy Bridge Demand Side – The European Union Supply Side – The Caspian Basin – Russia – The Middle East – Eastern Med (?)

75. Turkey as a Transit Corridor ? Variety of pipelines, and other sorts of transportation. Not only for the Turkish market, but also for Europe and other markets via the Mediterranean.

76. Turkey as an Energy Hub ? A web of oil and gas pipelines as well as LNG trade, not only in terms of its ability to influence transit terms and conditions, but also in re- exporting some of the hydrocarbons passing through this system.

77. Turkey as an Energy Center ? Energy hub + massive energy investments. Sufficient energy intensity or efficiency & a sustainable energy mix A favorable balance between int. agreements, pipelines, domestic energy structure & energy mix. Conveying economic & strategic advantages, bolstering Turkey’s regional influence.

78. Four phases of Turkey’s Energy Ambitions 1. Early phase with political-cultural concerns: 1991- 1994. 2. East-West energy corridor originating from Caspian: 1994-2005. 3. East-West energy corridor originating from Eurasia and the Middle East: 2005-2009. 4. East-West & North-South energy transit hub originating from Russia, the Caspian Sea and the Middle East : 2010 and onwards.

80. Early Phase (1991-1994) Twofold effects of the disintegrations of the USSR on Turkey’s energy policies : 1)A rapid increase in energy relations with Russia, keen to sell more gas to Turkey 2)Position to politically fill the space left in Central Asia by Soviet Russia.

81. East-West Energy Corridor from Caspian Phase (1994-2005) A variety of oil and gas pipeline projects which would bring Caspian hydrocarbons to Turkey Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan ( BTC) Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) NABUCCO

88. E-W Energy Corridor from Eurasia & the Middle East (2005-2009) Pipelines from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran, with possible extensions from Iraq & Qatar. Difficulty of Nabucco

89. East-West & North-South energy transit hub : 2010 and onwards. Concerns of global actors, regional dynamics & Turkey’s increasing efforts to implement energy as a means of foreign policy. Energy infrastructure investments, Ceyhan terimal & NG storages

99. Ceyhan Energy Terminal

102. SWOT ANALYSIS OF TURKEY’S ENERGY STRATEGY

103. STRENGHTS Growing energy figure Location Stability Net energy importer Advanged engineering services

104. Weaknesses Take or pay agreements mainly due to overestimated NG consumption projections Generating electrircity from NG Ineffcient energy usage / High Energy Intensity Disharmony among state institutions Balancing the triangle of Russia-Iran-the US Instability in Caucasus and Middle East Iranian nuclear impasse Critical Energy Infrastructure (in)security

105. Opportunies Idle renewable energy potential Speculative potential oil/NG reserves Pledge to become the 4th artery of Europe or regional energy hub Prospects for stability in Caucasus and ME

106. Threats Political/economic risks associated with over dependency on imported energy resources Over reliance on Russian resources – Resource nationalism Energy terror ( ISIL, PKK, al-Qaeda, etc.)

107. What should be Turkey’s energy strategy to reach sustainable energy future?

108. Thanks