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GILLES PERROT Total and the Photovoltaic Solar Market KAZENERGY 2011 - ASTANA
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A medium-term competitive energy An unlimited and gigantic source of Energy A clean source of power A source of energy spread across the whole planet Levels of sunshine on Earth: the countries of the North and South have the necessary resources The rationale for solar energy 1 Advantages Solar Photovoltaic Production costs per Watt (in $) x1/100 Current cost reduction trend: -5%/y. The sun delivers the equivalent of 10000 times the current global energy consumption Solar energy relies on strong drivers which will turn it into a key source of energy in the long-term 2 34 Solar power is expected to achieve competitiveness with the power grid retail price (“grid parity”) in many regions The level of CO2 emissions/kWh from a solar PV system is between 4 to 10 times less compared to a traditional fossil fueled power plant 2 500 CO2 emissions (Kg CO2/KWh) Source greenit.fr
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201020202030 Total high scenarioTotal base scenario Estimated solar market segments breakdown Grid parity speeding up market growth source : Total Estimated worldwide solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity Capturing solar market growth GW Off grid 3% Solar farms 33% Commercial rooftops 33% Residential rooftops 31% (Average 2011-2021) 3 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 20 to 25% of annual growth until 2020 5% of the world electric production in 2030 400 GW 900 GW
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Competitiveness with conventional electricity Estimated grid parity - Residential Electricity price Cost of solar power generation Solar rooftop systems expected to become competitive without subsidies for most OECD residents by 2020 0.15 0.05 €/kWh 202020102012201420162018 Southern Italy 0.25 0.15 0.05 €/kWh 202020102012201420162018 Germany 4
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The 3 PV technologies Crystalline siliconThin filmsOrganic PV Crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules represent around 85% of the global annual market today Thin Films modules represent around 15% of the global annual market today Emerging technologies entering the market via niche applications efficiency, reliability + cost, technical constraints - + efficiency - cost, technical constraints + life duration, efficiency - 5
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~ 99.9999% pure Focus on the crystalline silicon PV chain Si ~50% of SI loss Si solar Wafers Cells Modules Systems Base chemicalsSpecialist chemistry & electronics industry Assembly, Engineering, Installation ~16% efficiency1KWc ~ 10m2 Applications Si metal. ~ 25% of the earth surface 98.5 to 99.9% 4 leverages Critical size Low cost country Vertical Integration Techno differentiation Leverages of competitiveness: 6
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Focus on TOTAL’s Assets Applications ~ 99.9999% pure Si ~50% of SI loss Si solar Wafers Cells Modules Systems Base chemicalsSpecialist chemistry & electronics industry Assembly, Engineering, Installation ~16% efficiency1KWc ~ 10m2 Si metal. ~ 25% of the earth surface 98.5 to 99.9% 7 TOTAL’s Assets (OPV)
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Company Overview Created in 1985, SunPower is based in San Jose, California. SunPower is one of the world’s leading solar PV players: Integrated player from ingots to systems installation. High efficiency mono-c-Si cells (reached 24.2%) and modules. Large scale manufacturing in Asia (reaching c. 2GW in 2014). A strong downstream position in the U.S. / Europe with a 4GW pipeline. Key Figures: 2010 Sales: $2.2bn More than 5000 employees 60% owned by TOTAL as of the14 th of June A worldwide leader which successfully handles its growth ModulesCellsWafers UPP Through JVs IngotsSilicon Commercial Residential Focus on SunPower 8
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