1. Housing and Employment in the Washington MSA Current Trends and Forecasts January 30, 2014 Jeannette Chapman, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Lisa Sturtevant, PhD, NHC Center for Housing Policy

2. Total Sales Washington MSA All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3. Total Sales Volume (millions of $) Washington MSA All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

4. Median Sale Price Washington MSA All Housing Types Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5. Total Sales District of Columbia All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6. Total Sales Suburban Maryland All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7. Total Sales Northern Virginia All Property Types Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

8. Average Sale Price Washington MSA Single-Family Detached Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

9. Average Sale Price Washington MSA Single-Family Attached Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10. Average Sale Price Washington MSA Condo Homes Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11. Year-End Average New Condominium Prices Per SF Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

12. Active Listings Washington MSA All Housing Types Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

13. Stabilized Vacancy Rates Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14. Stabilized Vacancy Rates Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15. Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16. Effective Rental Rates per SF Class A High-Rise Source: Delta Associates, DowntownDC BID, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17. The Washington Economy

18. Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 200220052008

19. Professional & Business Services Washington MSA, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 200220052008

20. Annual Change in Employment Washington MSA

21. Federal Government Washington MSA, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 200220052008

22. Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013 Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis

23. Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

24. Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s ) 20112012201320142015201620172018 D.C.14.15.61.99.711.39.36.54.6 Sub. MD 4.44.820.718.122.720.014.312.2 No. VA 26.423.514.632.231.836.835.030.3 REGION42.632.237.560.266.166.456.247.5 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

25. Employment Change by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032 Net New Jobs % Change D.C.148,50019.8% Sub. MD 254,80026.4% No. VA 448,70032.5% REGION*857,30027.6% *Includes Jefferson, WV Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

26. Principal Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area, 2012-2032 (000s) Job % of Total Median Change Job Change Wage* Prof. & Sci. Svs/Mgt 401.8 46.9% $81,500 Admin & Waste Svs 139.0 16.2 29,500 Construction 95.0 11.1 36,700 Health Services 71.2 8.3 39,500 Leisure/Hospitality 45.9 5.4 18,300 Sub-Total 753.1 87.8% Overall Total 857.3 100.0 $48,900 * in 2011$s Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

27. Net New Jobs By Median Wage, 2012 – 2032 Includes Part Time Jobs Jobs In 000s Median Wage Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

28. Housing Demand by Sub-state Area, 2012 – 2032 By Work Location By Current Commute Patterns D.C.105,20041,800 Sub. MD 160,800184,800 No. VA 279,000261,500 Outside Region 056,600 REGION*548,300548,300 *Includes Jefferson, WV. Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

29. Demand by Housing Type and Sub-state Region, 2012-2032 Total Single- Family Multi- Family D.C.105,20038,00067,200 Sub. MD 160,800106,60054,200 No. VA 279,000197,60081,400 REGION*548,300344,600203,700 *Includes Jefferson, WV Note: Assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

30. Comparison of Current Stock & Demand by Housing Type, Washington MSA Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis.

31. Demand for New Units by Price Washington MSA, 2012-2032 Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 13% <$200k 16%

32. Demand for New Units by Price District of Columbia, 2012-2032 Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 8% <$200k 14%

33. Demand for New Units by Price Suburban Maryland, 2012-2032 Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 11% <$200k 22%

34. Demand for New Units by Price Northern Virginia, 2012-2032 Owner Households Renter Households Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: 2009-2011 ACS, IHS Global Insight, MWCOG, BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. $600k+ 16% <$200k 14%

35. Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers. More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality. Housing Policy Issues

36. Questions? Jeannette Chapman GMU Center for Regional Analysis jchapm13@gmu.edujchapm13@gmu.edu, 703-993-2274 Lisa Sturtevant, PhD NHC Center for Housing Policy LSturtevant@nhc.orgLSturtevant@nhc.org, 202-466-2121 ext. 234