1. whatIf? Modelling Tools Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues. Simulation modelling Case study: Victoria WAS Scenarios Discussion Questions throughout please!

2. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com What is Simulation Modelling and why use it? Try something out ahead of time… To learn the impact of various actions To play out different scenarios To gain understanding and insight …make better plans and decisions.

3. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach Whole system modelling Process as fundamental concept Physical substrate Behaviour/Control Stocks and Flows Coherence (user imputed causality)

4. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Model Builder modelling suite

5. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Model Building Overview design model coding calibration and data assembly scenario building Interactive process for designing and building models Build a customized model specific to analytical needs Technology transfer may occur throughout

6. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com whatIf? Benefits Transparency Corporate Memory Scenario Management

7. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com We have linked physical whole-economy models Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)  all economy  energy end-use (residential, industrial…)  materials flows Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF)  demography  land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas)  electricity generation Water Accounting System (WAS)  water requirements  water provision  energy for water system

8. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Demographics Land-use Electricity production Water resources and use  a complete water account Drivers and Interactions

9. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’ ‘Flow’ of physical implications  integrates use and availability  inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF

10. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Geographic Context Victoria is in southern Australia Melbourne is the capital city of ~4 million people 3 key dams (each >10 6 Gl)  Dartmouth (NE)  Eildon (N)  Thomson (SE) supplies most of Melbourne Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria overlap

11. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Victorian historical data sources Water  DWRV Water Resource Handbook  BRS 1985 Review  ABS Water Accounts (1994-97, 2001, 2005)  DSE State Water Report 2003  SoE 1988  MDBC reports – flows, dam levels  BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows  Energy intensity of water services; Energy used Demography  Census 1966-2001; education statistics; health statistics Land-use  Zoning Plan  historical maps of Melbourne  Census (2001) Energy  ESAA generation/production capacity ~ 1995-2004  ABS Energy Accounts 1982-1991  specific energy consumption data 1974-1995  Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~1920-2004

12. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System - Description “Design Approach” [Gault et al, Futures, 1987]  “supply v demand” structure  traceable physical relationships (coordination)

13. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System - Requirements water requirements  by ~14 sectors  in 79 Local Government Areas

14. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System - Availability water availability  in 29 major river basins  across 14 land use types  into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration

15. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System - Disposition water puts and takes  into/from rivers, dams, aquifers  centralised or self-extracted  desalination option  quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water  treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels  transfers between the 29 river basins

16. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System – Dam/River Balance water storage stock and river flows  all additions and extractions brought together  diversions from river to dam  release of storage down river  river network included

17. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Water Account System – Energy Required energy for water services  potable treatment & pumping  treatment & pumping for recycling (sewage, other discharges, stormwater)  local re-use  desalination  inter-region transfers

18. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Key common assumptions population growth  4.9 million by 2050  Victoria in Future climate change  “medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050  CSIRO intensity of water use  marginal increase response to climate change irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor  DSE electricity consumption / generation  growth at 2% pa per capita  unchanged technology

19. whatIf? Modelling Tools www.whatiftechnologies.com Other key scenario assumptions water end-use  no change(2a, 2b)  solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine(1a, 1b, 2c, 2d) in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing dwellings water services  conventional catchment(1a, 2a, 2c)  desalination (to meet new demand)(2b, 2d)  alternative(1b) rainwater tanks –in 20% dwellings –1 kL re-use of industrial wastewater –20% of flow re-use of wastewater at central treatment –20% of flow