1. Land management and resilience in a changing climate

2. Content A changing climate in the South West Implications for agriculture Focus on water efficiency Focus on soil and nutrient management Environmental Stewardship Conclusions

3. A Changing Climate in the South West

4. Weather and Climate Climate = the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period Weather = what it is doing outside right now

5. Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2010) Global Temperature Increase

6. Temp rise is difference from 1750 IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% Some change is inevitable Year We are locked into some change because of past emissions Start to diverge from 2030-40 2003 heatwave temperature, which killed 2,000 people across the UK, are likely to be normal by the 2040s

7. Mitigation reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) Adaptation preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change © Environment Agency

8. 8 South-West England central estimate Medium emissions Impacts Heat stress to poultry and livestock Increased risk of disease in crops Altered growing seasons 2020 +1.6 0 C 2050 +2.7 0 C 2080 +3.9 0 C Warmer summers But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC The 2003 heatwave, which caused an extra 30,000 heat-related deaths across Europe, was 2.3  C above average Map showing average summer temperature change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s

9. 9 Impacts Increased drought Reduced stream flow and water quality Serious water stress Decreased crop yields Climate change could increase water demand for irrigated crops in parts of the UK by as much as 50% by 2050 South West England central estimate Medium emissions 2020 - 8% 2050 - 20% 2080 - 24% Drier summers (on average!) Map showing change in average summer precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

10. Map showing change in average winter precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions 10 Impacts Increased winter flooding Risks to livestock Increased soil erosion and run-off Waterlogged soils South West central estimate Medium Emissions 2020 + 7% 2050 + 17% 2080 + 23% Wetter, milder winters In England, 1.3 million hectares of farmland are within floodplains, including over half of the most productive land

11. Figures shown are at the 50% probability level, high emissions 2020 Weston-super-Mare:12 cm Newlyn:13 cm Poole:12 cm 2050 Weston-super-Mare:26 cm Newlyn:29 cm Poole:26 cm Rising sea levels Impacts Loss of productive land due to: Increased coastal flooding Inundation of land Increased erosion Salinisation of freshwater Note. Global average sea level rise: 1961-2003 = 1.8mm/year; 1993-2003 = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007) © Environment Agency

12. More frequent and intense weather events i.e. Floods; Droughts; Storms and Heatwaves Impacts Crop damage or loss Soil erosion Drainage and building maintenance costs Disruption to transport Stress to livestock Increased fire risk © Environment Agency © Reed Business Information Ltd.

13. Cost UK agriculture an estimated £50 million Farmers lost an average £1,150 per flooded hectare Water and power supplies lost Transport routes disrupted Gloucestershire floods, summer 2007 The South West is vulnerable to the existing climate 1177ha arable land and 2185ha grassland flooded in Gloucestershire - over 33 km 2 © Environment Agency

14. Regional partnership funded by a range of public and private organisations SW Adaptation Response Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Its mission is: To help the South West of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change

15. Climate SouthWest Funders Climate SouthWest Agriculture & Forestry Sector Group is chaired by the NFU - New members welcome!

16. Implications for agriculture

17. How do farmers see things? 60% of farmers think climate change is impacting their farm now 60% of farmers believe their growing season is lengthening

18. Global productivity changes by 2050

19. Changing weather New pests & diseases (e.g. bluetongue) Heat stress to poultry and livestock Increased risk of drought Increased risk of soil erosion and run-off Greenhouse gas reduction targets and low- carbon supply chains – pressure for ‘carbon neutrality’ Land management Challenges © Environment Agency © Somerset Tourism

20. Opportunities Changing weather - new markets, demands & crop varieties Reduced frost damage Longer growing seasons Water conservation – cost savings Renewable energy Woodland creation

21. What are farmers doing - Now? Moving to new farming systems Soil and nutrient management plans Putting in bore holes Rainwater harvesting Covering yards to minimise slurry storage Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice Vaccinating against diseases - e.g. bluetongue © Derek HarperDerek Harper

22. What are farmers doing - 2029? All of the NOW stuff Battling new diseases Reduced flood risk from farms New breeds have been introduced New crops and varieties have been introduced Better water management - Increased use of irrigation Selling in new markets e.g. Water quality, Energy production, Carbon sequestering © Woodland Trust © Farming Futures

23. Focus on water efficiency

24. Current pressure on water supplies © Environment Agency and Ofwat 2008 Parts of the UK have less water available per person than Sudan! In the SW, it may seem like we have plenty of rain but the ‘headroom’ in supply is currently below target in many areas

25. Future pressures © Environment Agency Summer river flow in the South West could decrease by as much as 50-80% by the 2050s

27. Water efficiency and resilience Audit/ benchmark - Understand value of water to your business -Understand cost of water wastage (incl. energy costs from pumping etc.) Leak check - no flow/ meter alarms Irrigation Reuse / recycle Alternative supplies - Rainwater harvesting - On-farm reservoirs © Environment Agency

29. Benefits for farmers Cost savings - Lower irrigation costs - Reduced dirty-water disposal costs - Reduced consumption Reduced dependence on supply Reduced localised flood risk Reduced soil erosion and compaction risk Size of slurry store can be reduced if clean water is diverted away from roof http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/GEMI1109BRGU-e-e.pdf

30. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/business/sectors/39985.aspx Further information – Environment Agency

31. Defra and ADAS have produced four best practice guides for irrigators: Water management for field vegetable crops: a guide for vegetable growers Water management of soil and substrate-grown crops: a guide for top and soft fruit growers A guide for container-grown ornamentals Irrigation best practice: Water management for potatoes - a guide for growers Copies are available from Adas, Boxworth, Telephone: 01954 268214 Further information - ADAS

32. Focus on soil and nutrient management

33. Soils in the South West Almost 50% sites are degraded and require soil structure remediation Only 11% of sites had good soil structure throughout the soil profile High risk soils

34. © Environment Agency

36. Reducing erosion and runoff Understand risks - plan land-use and cultivation accordingly - ThinkSoils - a practical guide Dig a hole and assess the problem Potential options: Plant grass buffer strips and woodland belts Undersow spring crops with a cover crop e.g. grass or mustard Avoid high-risk crops on steep slopes Avoid cultivation, harvesting, grazing and slurry spreading in wet conditions Remove compaction © Environment Agency

37. Benefits for farmers Enhanced root growth and soil condition Reduced waterlogging and soil loss Natural drainage Reduced flood risk Better use of nutrients – lower fertiliser costs Easier working of the land, with fewer cultivations and inputs © Environment Agency

38. Examining soil structure A practical guide to digging a hole ThinkSoils Catchment Sensitive Farming –Advice on reducing diffuse pollution SW Agricultural Resource Management –Soils for Profit (S4P) advice on soils, nutrients and manure –Resource Efficiency for Farms (R4F) advice on energy, water and inorganic waste management http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/business/sectors/soils.aspx Further information

39. Changing Climate, Changing Business – Is your farm adapting? A5 fold-out leaflet for the SW: Soil Water Woodland Top tips Signposts to further info

40. Environmental Stewardship

41. Environmental Stewardship reduces emissions from agriculture by 11% per year Your ‘Top 10’ options appear on the next slide All these options can neutralise the emissions of an average dairy farm by: Reducing fertilisers, pesticides & machinery Removing or reducing methane emissions from livestock & their manures Accumulating organic matter in soil & vegetation Carbon Audits for Land Managers now include Environmental Stewardship options

42. Environmental Stewardship OptionPayment (£/ha) Buffer strips on intensive grassland (2m to 12m wide)300-400 Creation of fen380 Preventing erosion or run-off from intensively managed grassland280 Creation of woodland outside the Less Favoured Area (LFA)315 Enhanced strips for target species on intensive grassland590 Archaeological features on grassland16 Buffer strips on organic grassland (2m to 12m wide)60 Creation of woodland inside the LFA200 Restoration of moorland40 Restoration of rough grazing for birds80 For more information and how to apply call 0300 060 0011

43. Conclusions

44. Opportunities for those who are resilient and able to adapt –Potential for increased yields –Cost savings via adaptation and efficiencies Uncertainties remain: –Drought and floods –Costs and risks –Plan for uncertainties We need to plan for current and future vulnerability Conclusions © Environment Agency

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