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May 8, 2007 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. Creating Competitive Advantage Thru Intelligent Development Visit Us On the Web@ http://www.trintek-energy.com Western Renewable Power Development Summit San Francisco, California Where The Wind Is In the West
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2 I. Value Drivers in Selecting Wind Sites II. Factors Affecting Cost Structure of Wind Projects III. Most Promising Geographic Areas IV. Niches and Contrarian Opportunities V. Most Important Factors Affecting Development and Timing of New Projects VI. Outlook and Forecast Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc.
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3 I. Value Drivers in Selecting Sites Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. A. Wind Resource Power Classification 3+ to 6 Direct Correlation to Capacity Factor and Revenue B. Availability and Abundance of Land to Support Large Projects Benefit of Economies of Scale and Lower Cost of Power C. Transmission Interconnection on or Near to Site Very Big Industry Issue Into The Future D. Environmental and Zoning Permitting Feasibility County Zoning Ordinance –Nimby and Banana Airports, Military Radar, Radio, TV, and Microwave towers Waters of the State and U.S. BLM or Federal or Tribal – NEPA Avian Bird and Bat Migration Pathways, Wildlife Habitat
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4 I. Value Drivers in Selecting Sites Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. E. Market Structure and Dynamics Ease of Obtaining PPA from Creditworthy Off taker Alternatives- Liquid Hubs and Financial Hedges RPS vs. No RPS States, Value of RECS Utility Avoided Cost Structure Which Fuels on the Margin? The Penny Rule Where Gas Is Not on The Margin F.Timing – Full Cycle Development Costs Policy Framework Vs. No RPS Big Player vs. Smaller Developer Financial Staying Power vs. Speed and Nimbleness Size Matters Where There is No Policy
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5 II. Factors Affecting Cost Structure Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. A. Other than the PTC, The most important Factors to Lower The Cost of Power are: Wind Resource and Capacity Factor Economies of Scale- Larger Projects Capital Costs and LTSA/Warranties Industrial Equipment Sales Tax Exemption Property Tax Relief In Specific Projects - Transmission Interconnection Cost And Associated Upgrades
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6 II. Other Factors Affecting Cost Structure Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. A. Corn Field or Flat Pasture Vs. Mountainous or Semi-Mountainous Terrain Total Costs in Mountainous Terrain Can Increase 20-30% Especially for New Transmission Line, Foundations Transportation, Road Building, and Logistics Supply Chain B. Long Haul Transportation Costs Can Now Approach 20% of the Capital Costs of a Wind Turbine. Value of Transportation Survey and Optimization Through Best Port of Entry More Important. Timing Available Resources Is Also Key. C.Cost of Substation Components and Power Collection Copper Cable Are Also Escalating
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7 III. Most Promising Geographic Areas Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. A.The Steering Group of the Western Interconnection Of the Western Governors Association’s Clean Diversified Energy Advisory Committee Expects: In Their Reference Case an Incremental 16,723 MW’s of Wind by 2015 Added in Western States In Their Hi-Renewables Case an Incremental 41,797 MW’s of Wind by 2015 Added in Western States B. For Perspective, The industry has an Installed Base of 11,603 MW’s of Which 8,143 MW’s are in Western States The Industry installed 2,454 MW’s in 2006 and Seems Constrained to About 2,500-3,500 MW’s a year currently. 1,673 of the MW’s Installed in 2006 were in Western States
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8 ERGO!-This is A Promising Geographic Area This is How We Prospect For Wind
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9 Western States - Wind Installed Base MW’s End of 2006 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. Texas 2768 New Mexico 497 Colorado 291 Wyoming 288 UT 1 Montana 146 Idaho 75 California 2,361 Oregon 439 Washington 818 Greater than 2,000 MW Greater than 400 MW Greater than 50 MW Zero to 50 MW NO. 1 NO. 2 NO. 3 Nevada 0 Arizona 0
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10 Western States – Wind MW’s Installed During 2006 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. Texas 774 New Mexico 90 Colorado 60 Wyoming 0 UT 0 Montana 9 Idaho 0 California 212 Oregon 100 Washington 428 Greater than 200 MW Greater than 100 MW Greater than 50 MW Zero to 50 MW NO. 1 NO. 2 NO. 3 Nevada 0 Arizona 0
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11 III. Most Promising Geographic Areas Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. State GwH RPS In Effect 1. Texas 1,190 YES 10,000 MW BY 2025 2. Montana 1,020 YES 15% BY 2015 3. Wyoming 747 NO 4. Colorado 481 YES 20% BY 2020 5. New Mexico 435 YES 20% BY 2020 6. Idaho 73 NO 7. California 59 YES 20% BY 2017 Western States (In the Top 20) Ranked by Resource Potential > Class 3 Note: Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Nevada, Utah Not Ranked in the Top 20 States for Wind Potential in the U.S.
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12 Western States - Corridor of Untapped Resource Potential Shown on Map Of Installed Base MW’s Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. Texas 2,768 New Mexico 497 Colorado 291 Wyoming 288 UT 1 Montana 146 Idaho 75 California 2,361 Oregon 439 Washington 818 Greater than 2,000 MW Greater than 400 MW Greater than 50 MW Zero to 50 MW NO. 1 NO. 2 NO. 3 Swath of Untapped Resources Montana,Wyoming Colorado, New Mexico, West Texas
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13 Western States - Corridor of Untapped Resource Potential Shown on Map of Resource Potential GwH Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. Texas 1,190 New Mexico 435 Colorado 481 Wyoming 747 UT Montana 1,020 Idaho 73 California 59 Oregon Washington Greater than 1,000 GwH Greater than 400 GwH Greater than 50 GwH Zero to 50 GwH NO. 1 Swath of Untapped Resources Potential Resource No. 2 No. 3 Arizona Montana,Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, West Texas
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14 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. IV. Niches and Contrarian Strategies A. High Level Strategic Thoughts Large Developers Can Influence Policy Framework Their Staying Power and Large Balance Sheets Enable Them to Assemble a Position, and Wait for the Market to Develop Where There Is None Example : Be in Idaho and Wyoming Before There is An RPS Example: Position in Likely National Interest Transmission Corridors Before there is Transmission Capacity (EPACT&FERC–890) Smaller Developers May Be Better Off Working in Areas of Established Framework and Competing on Speed and Nimbleness Example: Texas, California, Colorado, New Mexico
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15 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. IV. Niches and Contrarian Strategies B. Specific Ideas For Niche Projects Look at Untapped Resources on Native American Lands Arizona Example : Gray Mountain Navajo Tribe Magnitude of 3-5,000 MW’s of Class 3+ Possible in Arizona Integrated Wind with Pumped Storage –Shaped Product May Integrate Well with Hydro in the Northwest or in Northern California Re-powering Opportunities in Tehachapi Area of California - Could be up to 4,000 MW’s By 2015 Especially with New Transmission, like Tehachapi/Antelope Transmission Project Consider the Economics of 100-120 Meter Towers in Some Areas of Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho -Suited to Zoning in Vast Unpopulated Regions
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16 Arizona - Gray Mountain Wind Energy Site
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17 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. Most Important Factors Affecting New Project Development and Timing A.The Two Most Important Factors Affecting New Project Development are RPS and Interconnection Given that most Western States now have an RPS, the next Step in Policy Framework is Interconnection Initiatives at State and Possibly Federal Level Which is most important? RPS or Interconnection? Answer: BOTH! This is Like the Analogy of a Rowboat with Two Oars, One Oar is RPS, and the Other is Interconnection, and the Rowboat Can’t Row on a Straight Path Without Both Oars.
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18 Copyright Trintek 2007 w/Credits to Jon Sayer/Illustrationweb Getting in the Queue for RPS Without Interconnection Policy Is a Shocking Mess!
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19 Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. The Importance of Integrated RPS and Interconnection Policy Framework A.Western States That Really “Get It” Texas – SB 20 CREZ Zone Initiative $2-3 Billion, Fast Track PUC & CPCN with Cost Recovery New Mexico- HB 188 Renewable Energy Transmission Authority (RETA)– 30 % Must Come from Renewables Colorado-SB 100 Energy Resource Zones, PUC Must Fast Track CPCN California-SCE Proposed Renewable Trunk Line Tehachapi/Antelope Transmission Project- Integrate Large Clusters at Reasonable Distance from 220 Kv+ Lines with Cost Recovery
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20 Would You Rather Row In Circles Or…. Sail? Trintek Energy Consulting, Inc. = Wind Powered INTERCONNECTION RPS +
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21 Outlook and Forecast Continued Development : Oregon, Washington, California California in Particular (Especially Southern California) is a Net Importer These will continue to be Established and Attractive Markets, but Maturing and Highly Competitive Accelerating Development : Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, (The Corridor of Relatively Untapped Resources) Favorable Transmission Policy Framework + Untapped Wind Potential Makes Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado Compelling Markets Montana and Wyoming Are Exporters and New Transmission Capacity Will Be Vied for By Both Coal and Wind Which May Slow Wind Development Emerging Development : Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho Smaller Wind Potential, But Well Positioned for Export to California Possible Attractive Niches in These 3,000-5,000 MW Size States Possibly Slightly Higher Return Opportunities without as Much Competition
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