1. Forest Fire Detection in the Wildland-Urban Interface James Barnier Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Division of Forestry FERIC Wildfire Detection Workshop March 25 – 27, 2003

7. Several Detection Options: Public reporting Fixed lookouts Ground patrols Air patrols Lightning detectors Satellite imagery

8. 911 Availability

9. Choice of a Detection Method: Risk Hazard Value

10. Research Objective: Evaluate the performance and cost- effectiveness of public and organized wildfire detection methods in the wildland-urban interface

11. The Study Area:

12. Forest covertypes

13. Socio-economic importance 90 thousand direct jobs $3.3 billion in wages $5.4 billion in value added 2+ million hectares of parks and conservation areas Over 8 million visitors annually

14. Settlement patterns 1.5 million residents 16 persons per square kilometre $45.8 billion in property values

15. Wisconsin’s detection system 95 fixed lookouts Public reporting Air patrols Ground patrols

16. Wildfire causes

18. Suppression techniques Ground attack Type VII-X engines and/or Type IV engines with Type IV tractor plows

20. Analytical Methods: Cost-benefit analyses Tukey’s multiple comparison tests of performance measures

21. Costs & benefits of lookout detection

22. A benefit function Lookout benefits assessed relative to public detection

23. Data: Two separate but linked datasets 4,690 individual fire reports (1987- 1995) 711 addendum reports from (1992- 1995)

24. A suppression cost model Model estimated for three covertype/ fuel model combinations Data included only those observations when lookouts were staffed

25. Results – Economic Effectiveness Statewide Protected 238 ha from wildfire damage Reduced suppression costs by $12 k Prevented $591 k in property damage Each $1 cost => $6 savings

26. A closer look

27. Protected 1.6 ha from wildfire Saved $86 in suppression costs Prevented $4,100 in property damage Per fire

28. Administrative region Area saved and suppression costs saved were not statistically different Property damage prevented and number of wildfires detected differed significantly

29. A closer look

30. Individual lookouts Lookout performance was highly variable Lookouts that detected more fires saved area and generated more benefits

31. A closer look

32. Results – Detection Performance: Wildfire sightings

33. Detection lag A A

34. Final size A B ABAB

35. Suppression cost A B ABAB

36. Conclusions: Fixed lookouts were cost-effective Majority of benefits attributable to property damage prevention Performance highly variable

37. Conclusions (Continued): Small number of lookouts generated majority of benefits Public and lookouts see different wildfires Opportunities exist to enhance wildfire detection