1. This Report is available at: www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg/PDF/Papers/PEPG12-03_CatchingUp.pdf Condensed essay available at: http://educationnext.orghttp://educationnext.org

2. Key Questions 1. Is achievement in the U.S. improving? 2. Is the U.S. catching up with other countries? 3. Are there important differences among the states?

3. Key Questions 1. Is achievement in the U.S. improving? YES 2. Is the U.S. catching up with other countries? NO 3. Are there important differences among the states? YES

4. Commitment to Achievement Growth Nation at Risk (1983) Stem a rising tide of mediocrity. George H. W. Bush and all Governors (1989) Bring U. S. achievement up to top of world by 2000. Clinton: Goals 2000: “All Americans can reach international competitive standards.” Bush: No Child Left Behind “All students proficient by 2013” Obama: “We know what it takes to compete for the jobs and industries of our time. We need to out-innovate, out- educate, and out-build the rest of the world.”

5. Importance to the United States “Human capital will determine power in the current century, and the failure to produce that capital will undermine America’s security.” — Independent Task Force Report, Condoleezza Rice, co-chair, Council on Foreign Relations

6. Sources of Information 1) NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) 2) PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) 3) TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) 4) PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS)

7. Achievement Growth by Country and State Combine All Tests Mathematics, reading, and science Calculate average annual growth (in standard deviations) 1 s.d. ≈ 4 grades International analysis (PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS): 1995 – 2009 49 countries 28 international tests ages between 9 -15 U. S. state analysis (NAEP): 1992 - 2011 41 states 4 th and 8 th grade

8. Main International Findings U.S. Annual gains 1.6 percent of standard deviation 22 percent of std. dev. over 14 years Median of international performance 24 countries do better 24 countries do worse

9. Annual Gains, 1995–2009

10. Countries with high achievement growth (% of std. dev. per year) Latvia (4.7% std.dev.) Chile (4.4) Brazil (4.0) Portugal (4.0) Hong Kong (3.9) Germany (3.8) Poland (3.7) Liechtenstein (3.7) Slovenia (3.6) Columbia (3.3) Lithuania (3.2) United Kingdom (2.8)

11. Have we painted too rosy a picture? U. S. growth: All NAEP: 1.6% s. d. per year: 25 th place 8 th grade NAEP: 1.0% s. d. per year; 21 st place PISA: 0.5 % s. d. per year; 26 th place NAEP 17-year-olds

12. State Rankings on Growth Rates: 1992-2011

13. Which states performed best? Massachusetts was a close 4 th (3.1% std. dev.) 3.3.3% std..3.3% 3.2% std. 33.2% 33.2% std. dev.

14. Countries with high achievement growth (% of std. dev. per year) Latvia (4.7% std.dev.) Chile (4.4) Brazil (4.0) Portugal (4.0) Hong Kong (3.9) Germany (3.8) Poland (3.7) Liechtenstein (3.7) Slovenia (3.6) Columbia (3.3) Lithuania (3.2) United Kingdom (2.8)

15. Which states gained the least? Nebraska Wisconsin Oklahoma Maine Iowa

16. StateGrowth Rate (% of std. dev.) Rank among 41 states New Jersey2.7%7 California2.317 Texas2.318 New York2.219 Colorado2.220 Achievement Growth in Selected States

17. Are Gains All at the Bottom?

18. Does catch-up explain state growth?

19. Do additional expenditures explain growth

20. Achievement Growth and Economic Growth

21. Key Questions 1. Is achievement in the U.S. improving? YES 2. Is the U.S. catching up with other countries? NO 3. Are there important differences among the states? YES

22. Enigma of U.S. Education Policy Recognition of value of education Recognition of need for improvement Setting of challenging goals FAILURE

23. This Report is available at: www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg/PDF/Papers/PEPG12-03_CatchingUp.pdf Condensed essay available at: http://educationnext.orghttp://educationnext.org