1. Surface ozone trends in a changing climate Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt & Joakim Langner

2.  What will happen to surface ozone in the future?  Climate change  Stability, BVOC, deposition, …  Anthropogenic emission change in Europe  Change in inter-continental transport  Change in stratospheric contribution  Etc  What will happen to surface ozone in the future?  Climate change  Stability, BVOC, deposition, …  Anthropogenic emission change in Europe  Change in inter-continental transport  Change in stratospheric contribution  Etc Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 2

3. Magnuz Engardt 3 Previous publications with MATCH studying with the effect of climate change on air quality: Langner, J., Bergström, R. and Foltescu, V. 2005. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe. Atmos. Environ. 39, 1129- 1141. Hole, L. and Engardt, M. 2008. Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Northwestern Europe: A model study. Ambio 37, 9-17. Langner, J., Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2009. Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change. Boreal Environ. Res. 14, 226-237. Engardt, M., Bergström, R. and Andersson, C. 2009. Climate and emission changes contributing to changes in near-surface ozone in Europe over the coming decades: Results from model studies. Ambio 38, 452–458. DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-38.8.452 Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2010. European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D02303. doi:10.1029/2008JD011690 Klingberg J., Engardt M., Uddling J., Karlsson P.E. and Pleijel H. 2010. Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations. Tellus, In press. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00465.x

4.  New study – what is more important for future surface ozone  Precursor emissions?  Climate change?  Boundary concentration?  Today’s talk  Design of study  Model set up  Evaluation  Precursor emission projection  Modelled results: timeseries and maps  Conclusions  New study – what is more important for future surface ozone  Precursor emissions?  Climate change?  Boundary concentration?  Today’s talk  Design of study  Model set up  Evaluation  Precursor emission projection  Modelled results: timeseries and maps  Conclusions

5. Modelling set up Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 5 Dynamical downscaling Global climate change ECHAM5 Regional climate change RCA3 Regional CTM MATCH CO2 emission scenario: A1B Period 1961-2100 Constant or varying precursor emissions boundary concentration

6. 3-dimensional transport and chemistry model (MATCH) Boundary conc, parameters etc. 3-dimensional meteorological fields Emissions Land use CTM: MATCH Eulerian three dimensional chemistry transport model ~60 chemical species Transport (advection and mixing) Natural emissions (sea salt, isoprene) Deposition Chemistry (photo-, wet-, thermal-, ~130 reactions in kpp) Particle components: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, ec, oc, (anthr) dust, sea salt Input data 3D met, every 3-6 hours Emissions Boundary and initial concentrations Deposition velocities Etc… Andersson and Bergström - scarp 2.2 6

7. Magnuz Engardt 7 What’s currently missing in MATCH?  Vegetation affected by climate change  Air Quality’s impact on climate  Some PM emissions and dynamics not included in MATCH  MATCH does not consider heavy metals, POPs, greenhouse gases, … MATCH is a mass based model we are currently including more sophisticated aerosol dynamic treatment of particles but this, updated, model is not included in this study

8.  Dynamical downscaling of global climate model over Europe by RCA3  Input to MATCH every 6 hours (T, CC, QML, PREC, U, V, surface fields, …) RCA3 (Samuelsson et al 2011, Kjellström et al 2011)  Full description of atmosphere and interations with land surface  Land surface model (Samuelsson et al 2006)  Lake model, PROBE (Ljungemyr et al 1996)  SST and SI conditions are prescibed (this set up)  Here: 0.44 km (rotated lat-lon) over Europé  4month spin up  Transient calculation 1961-2100  Has been applied in numerous studies with numerous GCMs as input Climate data 8

9. Scenarios (we are also using HADCM3-RCA3, not shown today) Global (climate) model Regional downscale climate model CTMBoundary conc (CTM) Precursor emissions GHG emissions Years ECHAM5RCA3MATCHconstantYr 2000A1B2000-2100 ECHAM5RCA3MATCHconstantRCP4.5A1B1961-2100 ECHAM5RCA3MATCH0.1 ppb(v) yr-1 RCP4.5A1B2000-2100 ECHAM5RCA3MATCH0.2 ppb(v) yr-1 RCP4.5A1B1961-2100 ECHAM4RCA3MATCHconstantYr 2000A21961-1990 2021-2050 2071-2100 ERA40-MATCHconstantYr 2000”real”1958-2001 Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 9 Manuscript will be submitted soon! Andersson and Engardt JGR 2010 Engardt et al Ambio 2009 Andersson and Langner WASP 2007 Andersson et al Tellus B 2007 ENSEMBLES: RCA3 (Kjellström et al. 2011) ECHAM4-RCA3 (Kjellström et al 2005) ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2006) ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al 1999) ERA40 (Uppala et al 2005)

10. Evaluation ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH vs obs 20 year climatology of near-surface ozone Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe Annual mean AMJJAS mean Annual daily max AMJJAS daily max Mean Observations30.836.441.549.6 ECHAM5 A1B3_cleo4.5_129.335.638.444.6 Bias %-4.7-2.3-7.5-10.1 Spatial corr.0.550.530.710.78 # stations59635961

11. RCA3 evaluation 1961-1990: T2M and Precipitation Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 11 Kjellström et al., 2011 DJF (winter) T2M JJA (summer) T2M Precipitation Deviations from obs -Warm bias in winter (NE) -Wet bias in summer (parts N)

12.  RCP4.5 - by JGCRI  RCP4.5 end of the century CO2 equiv is ~650 ppm(v) RCP4.5 12

13. Precursor emission scenarios - NOx Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 1850 2100

14. Precursor emission scenarios - NMVOC Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 1850 2100

15. Change in temperature and precipitation 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 ECHAM5-RCA3 CO2 : A1B Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 15 Kjellström et al., 2011 DJF JJA DJF JJA

16. Change in amjjas avg surface ozone in Europe ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 16 Impact of climate change Significant at 99% level 2040s/2050s vs 2000s Impact of climate change Significant at 99% level 2040s/2050s vs 2000s Impact of climate change and RCP4.5 emissions Significant at 99% level 2050s vs 2000s Impact of climate change and RCP4.5 emissions Significant at 99% level 2050s vs 2000s

17. Change in surface ozone in northern Europe ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 17 Manuscript in preparation Average AMJJAS daily max daily average

18. Change in surface ozone in southern Europe ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 18 Källström et al., 2009 Average AMJJAS daily max daily average

19. Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe 19 April-Sept h-max Climate change April-Sept h-max Climate change April-Sept avg Climate change April-Sept avg Climate change & Boundary (0.2 ppb yr-1) & prec emis April-Sept avg Climate change ECHAM4(A2-GHG) April-Sept avg Climate change ECHAM4(A2-GHG) April-Sept avg Climate change ERA40 April-Sept avg Climate change ERA40 & Prec emis 19602100 measurement Model at meas sites Change in surface ozone, southern Europe All scenarios (so far)

20. Conclusions The effect of emission reductions in the RCP4.5 scenario on surface ozone has greater impact than climate change in the ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH scenario on European surface ozone due to climate change. Interhemispheric transport has the potentail to become an important factor in the future, especially for average concentrations in northern Europe, but also for daily max concentrations. The effect of emission reductions in the RCP4.5 scenario on surface ozone has greater impact than climate change in the ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH scenario on European surface ozone due to climate change. Interhemispheric transport has the potentail to become an important factor in the future, especially for average concentrations in northern Europe, but also for daily max concentrations. 20 Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe

21. 21 Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe Future plans Publish ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH and HADCM3-RCA3-MATCH scenarios (manuscript is being compiled) Use/include more scenarios in various studies:  CLIMA-TRAP (EU-project) Health impact assessment (manuscript is being compiled)  CLEO (Swedish EPA) Vegetation impacts in Sweden  SUDPLAN (EU-project) Downscaling impact of climate change (air pollution, temp, precipitaiton) over some European cities  IMPACT2C (EU-project) Impacts at a 2degree global temp increase  ECLAIRE (EU-project)  Etc… Publish ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH and HADCM3-RCA3-MATCH scenarios (manuscript is being compiled) Use/include more scenarios in various studies:  CLIMA-TRAP (EU-project) Health impact assessment (manuscript is being compiled)  CLEO (Swedish EPA) Vegetation impacts in Sweden  SUDPLAN (EU-project) Downscaling impact of climate change (air pollution, temp, precipitaiton) over some European cities  IMPACT2C (EU-project) Impacts at a 2degree global temp increase  ECLAIRE (EU-project)  Etc…

22. 22 Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe Thank you for listening!

23. Magnuz Engardt 23 08-10-04 Why regional climate downscaling? Global climate model (CCSM3) Simulated winter (DJF) MSLP and precipitation (1961-1990) Regional climate model (RCA3) (with lateral boundary conditions from CCSM3)