1. IIM Ahmedabad Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

2. IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Environment Assessment? What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component Models? Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment provide? Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing countries? Presentation Agenda

3. IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Environment Assessment?

4. IIM Ahmedabad Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment Policymaking Process Integrated Assessment Models and Frameworks Ecology Policy sciences Hydraulics Meteorology Climatology Geophysics Atmospheric Chemistry Economics Biology Geochemistry Knowledge disciplines

5. IIM Ahmedabad Diverse Scientific Disciplines Diverse socio-economic scenarios Macro and micro-economies Local and regional boundaries Short and long time horizons Local and global environmental concerns Rural and urban perspectives Regional emissions and impact assessment Probability and Decision under uncertainty Technology What to Integrate?

6. IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Assessment? To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge) To develop full range of policy outcomes To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and policy formulation

7. IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Assessment Models? Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency pointing to areas where more information is required IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools Communications tools between different sciences and between science and policy Insights from investigations in the domains of the sub- components

8. IIM Ahmedabad What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

9. IIM Ahmedabad Climate Issues Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change”

10. IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Climate Change Dimensions Atmospheric Composition Climate & Sea Level Human Activities Ecosystems

11. IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Framework for Climate Change

12. IIM Ahmedabad What are Integrated Assessment Models? Example Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis

13. IIM Ahmedabad AIM Model System Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem /Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules AIM/Energy /Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM Family

14. IIM Ahmedabad Strategic Database Outputs Innovational Work System CommonDatabase Monitoring & Processing Data from IEM AIM-Trend AIM-Energy AIM-Top-down AIM-Material AIM-Ecosystem Policy making Statistics

15. Atmospheric Composition MAGICC Climate & Sea Level SCENGEN Human Activities ERB-AGLU Ecosystems AGLU & MERGE MiniCAM An Integrated Modelling Framework

16. IIM Ahmedabad MiniCAM COMPONENTS ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITIONCLIMATE & SEA LEVEL HUMAN ACTIVITIESECOSYSTEMS MAGICC Atmospheric Chemistry MAGICC Ocean Carbon Cycle MAGICC Climate MAGICC--Ocean · temperature · sea level ERB Energy System ERB Other Human Systems ALU Ag., L'stock & Forestry (none) Coastal System MAGICC Terrestrial Carbon Cyc. ALU Crops & Forestry Un-managed Eco-system & Animals ALU Hydrology

17. IIM Ahmedabad What are Component Models?

18. IIM Ahmedabad GDP and CO2 Emissions: AIM/Trend Model

19. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 Emission AIM/Emission Model 20002030

20. IIM Ahmedabad Water Consumption: AIM/Ecosystem Model 2030 Market Force

21. IIM Ahmedabad 26 region – 36 sector Computable General Equilibrium Model (AIM/Top-down) World level Bottom-up technology & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) Bottom-up technology & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) Bottom-up technology & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) ・・・・・・ Country level AIM/Top-down & AIM/Bottom-up Model

22. IIM Ahmedabad Insights from Integrated Climate Change Assessment

23. IIM Ahmedabad Emissions and Concentrations IS92a

24. IIM Ahmedabad Energy ConsumptionCarbon Emissions 0 200 400 600 800 19952005201520252035 Year Carbon (MT) 0 10 20 30 40 50 19952005201520252035 Year Exa Joules Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Biomass Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIMENDUSE Model

25. IIM Ahmedabad GHG versus Local Emissions in India Carbon EmissionsSO 2 Emissions 0 200 400 600 800 19952005201520252035 Year Carbon (MT) Year Million Tonnes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 19952005201520252035 7

26. IIM Ahmedabad Global Carbon Mitigation Scenarios (2000 - 2100)

27. IIM Ahmedabad Technology, Energy & Climate: MINICAM 550 ppmv

28. IIM Ahmedabad Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization Base Case Energy SystemEnergy Changes: 550 ppmv Case MTC 550 ppmv

29. IIM Ahmedabad Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO 2 at 550 ppmv 550 PPMV Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation 40 0 80 0 1200 2000 1600

30. IIM Ahmedabad Regional Energy Market Development

31. IIM Ahmedabad Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia Carbon SOX 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.5 Reduction (%) Year Emissions Reduction (2015 ) Grid Integration Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation

32. IIM Ahmedabad Why and What kind of Capacity Building for Integrated Environment Assessment in Developing Countries?

33. IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Environment Assessment: Developing Country Problems Assessment and modeling capabilities Inadequate database Structural changes in the economy Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns Weak regional and international linkages Lack of sustained funding

34. IIM Ahmedabad Limitations of Present Approaches Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment Assumptions derived from developed world perspective Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events Weak behavioral interfaces Distance between analysts and policy makers

35. IIM Ahmedabad Capacity Building Needs for Developing Countries Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts Sustained funding Institutionalize integrated assessment activities