1. The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future for our Children:
The Hard Choices Facing Us
Rotary Club of Corby
Annual Lecture 5th November 2009
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich

2. How much Energy is there in different fuels?
Understanding Energy
How much Energy is there in different fuels?
MegaJoules
Yogurts
kWh
Yogurt
85000 calories (85kcal)
0.365 1
0.1
1 cubic meter gas
39.6
106.8
10.8
1 litre petrol
32.9
90.1
9.1
1 litre diesel
35.7
97.8
9.9
1 litre LPG
25.0
68.6
7.0
1 litre heating oil
35.3
96.6
9.8

3. Increasing Occurrence of Drought3 3

4. Increasing Occurrence of Drought Increasing Occurrence of Flood4 4

5. Norwich City would be playing water polo!
Consequence of ~ 1m rise
Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich
If we don’t do anything about it now, what would happen in the future is Norwich could be under water due to the large sea level rises.
To avoid working under water at UEA in a few hundreds of years, we have to quickly develop effective measures to reduce CO2 emission. One of such measures is to use carbon-free or clean fuels. Hydrogen is regarded as a clean energy carrier of the future, particularly to replace petrol for mobile application.
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich City would be playing water polo! 5 5

6. Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب
Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
NASA satellite imagery
الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه
ناسا الصور الفضاءيه
2003
1979
20% reduction in 24 years
20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات
Source: Nasa 6 6 6

7. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
Import Gap

8. How is electricity generated

9. Electricity Generation in the UK
Coal 37.7%
Gas 35.5%
Oil 1.3%
Other 2.0%
Renewable 4.7%
Nuclear 18.9%
Power Station
Losses 8.5%
42% efficient in UK
Emissions depends on efficiency, losses and fuel
Coal ~ 1000 gms
Oil ~ 900 gms
Gas ~ 400 gms
Nuclear ~ 20gms
Each unit of electricity used causes the emission of 540 gms in UK but only 70gms in France.

10. Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (curently 35%)
Available now (but is now running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher
Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004
Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 10 10

11. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (curently 35%)
Available now (but is now running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 11 11

12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Scroby Sands had a Load factor of % but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich.
At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 13

14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW

15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK.

16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Transport Fuels:
Biodiesel?
Bioethanol?
Compressed gas from
methane from waste.
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

17. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Output GWh per annum -
Sufficient for houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south
Save tonnes of CO2

20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

21. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
There is a looming capacity shortfall
Even with a full deployment of renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased household size

22. Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

23. Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

24. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

25. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
Raising Awareness
A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
Standby on electrical appliances
up to kWh a year balloons. (up to £15 a year)
A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres)
kg of CO (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles

26. The Behavioural Dimension
Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption
Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich
For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 26

27. Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

28. It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

29. Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year [14th/408] , in
Eaton Rise District of Norwich ~ kWh
West Norfolk, 6082 kWh [391st/408] per year

30. Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump
Any low grade source of heat may be used
Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep
Bore holes
Lakes/Rivers are ideal
Air can be used but is not as good
Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible.
Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

31. Horizontal Axis Mini Wind
6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray
In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average
>>> annual output of approximately kWh/annum 31 31 31

32. Involve the local Community
The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.
On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. 32 32 32

33. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 未来的低碳之路
1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness
2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions
Don’t need the English on this slide so Chinese is fine
4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting
3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy

34. What can we do? WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org
What can you do in your school
What can you do at home
Where are the biggest savings in Energy and carbon emissions?
Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK and will increasingly affect us all in next 10 years
Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years
Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming
Otherwise we may have to choose whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat our home.
WEBSITE
This presentation will be on WEB from tomorrow >follow Academic Resources Link
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”
（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”
Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
老子 （ BC）中国古代思想家、哲学家

36. Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record
350
300
250
200
Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)
600
500
400
100
Thousands of Years Before Present
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
today
Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).
Last Interglacial
Last Ice Age
1800
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. 36 36 36

37. Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Prediction: Natural only
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Temperature Rise (oC)
Is Global Warming man made?
actual
predicted
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Temperature Rise (oC)
actual
predicted
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Predictions include:
Greenhouse Gas emissions
Sulphates and ozone
Solar and volcanic activity
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Temperature Rise (oC)
actual
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
predicted
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 37 37