1. CSD-14 Partnerships Fair – May 2006 1 - Environmental Innovation for Sustainable Development - Masataka Watanabe: Leader of Integrated Environmental Monitoring Sub-project Mikiko Kainuma: Leader of Integrated Environmental Assessment Sub-project Hideyuki MORI: Leader of Research on Innovative and Strategic Policy Options Sub-project Asia-Pacific Environmental Innovation Project (APEIS) NIES 3 May 2006

2. 2 International Scientific Activities Framework of APEIS WSSD Propose Asia-Pacific model ECO ASIA Ministerial Meeting ECO ASIA Panel Policy Guidance Scientific database and options Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and Other international projects Create linkages and cooperative structures International organizations (ADB, UNEP, UNU) APN Joint project collaboration Research on innovative and strategic policy options Integrated Environmental Monitoring Integrated Environmental Assessment Sub-projects

3. 3 Concept / Target Each sub-project is designed to provide a scientific basis for decision-making and to establish on-going communication between scientists and policy-makers.Each sub-project is designed to provide a scientific basis for decision-making and to establish on-going communication between scientists and policy-makers. DatabaseDatabase Monitoring/Modeling toolsMonitoring/Modeling tools NetworkNetwork What has been done. What next steps? What area these tools could be applied further?What area these tools could be applied further? How to expand collaboration?How to expand collaboration?

4. 4 Sub-Project: Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

5. 5 Integrated Monitoring System Ecological Indices Water deficit index Aridity Index of desertification Index of dust storm Integrated Model for Assessment of Ecological Function Water resources Carbon cycle Nutrient cycle Food Production and Security Disaster Protection Ground-truth Measurements Meteorological data Hydrological data Vegetation data Soil properties data Contribution to Policy Making for SD MODIS high-order products Land surface temperature Land cover / Vegetation indices Fires & biomass burning Leaf area index / FPAR Photosynthesis / NPP Satellite Observation Network Ecological Observation Network Detection of Ecosystem Vulnerability GIS Data Digital maps Statistic data Other remote sensing date

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7. 7 (Desert) (Wheat and corn field)) (paddy field) H: Heat flux LE: Latent heat flux (evaporation rate)

8. 8 Estimated water deficit index (EF) and evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat field with MODIS remote sending datasets in North China Plain

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11. 11 Carbon Fixation ( Mg C ha -1 ) Input Validation Scale-up Input Simulation of CO2 Flux Before improved Land Use Climatic Factors GIS Input Layers Measurements Modeling After improved Application to Regional Scale: Carbon Fixation by Vegetation using MODIS Data

12. 12 Leaf Area Index (LAI)Vegetation Index (NDVI) Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) Daily Simulation of Carbon Exchange

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14. 14 Sub-Project: Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

15. 15 Objectives of IEA Developing IEA tools to assess innovative options Diffusing and applying IEA tools for selected Asia-Pacific countries (China, India, Thailand, Korea) Developing quantitative innovative scenarios using IEA tools Link with MDG/national goals and Sustainable Development

16. 16 Tools for Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA)

17. 17 Issues ConsideredIEA ToolsExamples Integration of millennium development goals, global environmental problems, and sustainability AIM/Material AIM/Energy AIM/Agriculture India's assessment of innovative options for meeting both millennium development goals and climate change objectives Renewable energy, rural electrification, and municipal solid waste management AIM/Energy AIM/Trend SDB Thailand's and Korea's environmentally sound energy innovations MDG, water, and sanitationAIM/Water AIM/Material SDB Asia-Pacific countries'water and sanitation developments and national health improvements City air pollution managementAIM/Air AIM/Energy AIM/Material Beijing city air management China air pollution and health impact What kind of issues IEA Tools can address? IEA Tools can address country-specific various environment and development problems (SDB: Strategic DataBase)

18. 18 How to assess national-level climate change scenarios and MDG targets of linkage among global scenarios -India’s case using AIM/Material & AIM/Energy-

19. 19 Water Stress Index (ratio between total withdrawal and renewable water resource) Order from Strength 2100 Technogarden 2100 0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ (%) 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ (%) 1 5 10 Withdrawal: driven by socio-economic factors Water resource: driven by climate factors General trend of stress index change can be explained by demand side. 2000

20. 20 Role of renewable energy -Thailand’s case using SDB-

21. 21 Air Quality Analysis with AIM/Air - Visualization of SO 2 Concentration - Air Quality Analysis with AIM/Air - SO 2 : Concentration contour of 3ppb surface 2001/3/31~4/9 UTC

22. 22 Simulation of SO 2 concentration caused by traffic emission in Beijing in a winter night Critical air quality locations in Beijing: transport emissions -China’s case using AIM/Air-

23. 23 Demonstration: Area: the center of Beijing city; Period: Jan 1st, 2000 ~ Jan 14th, 2000; Time step: 1 hour; Emission source: automobiles; Traffic pattern: hourly change in a day; Meteorology data: ECMWF; Model: Plume or Puff model for a line of point sources (each point source covers emission from automobiles on road within 100m x 100m area)

24. 24 APEIS session at CAPaBLE workshop (Beijing, Sep 2005) Contributions of APEIS/IEA UNEP/SEF II workshop (Hanoi, Jan 2005) Capacity building workshop on model development for Asia-Pacific researchers Transfer of IEA tools to selected Asia-Pacific countries Contributions to international projects:  MA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment)  IPCC AR4  UNEP/GEO3 & GEO4  UNEP[RISO]/Development and Climate Project  UNEP/SEFII: Great Mekong Project  EMF (Energy Modeling Forum)  CAPaBLE project

25. 25 Sub-Project: Research on Innovative and Strategic Policy Options Strategic Policy Options (RISPO) II Research on the Promotion of Sustainable Development in the Context of Regional Economic Integration: in the Context of Regional Economic Integration: Strategies for Environmental Sustainability and Poverty Reduction Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

26. 26 Implementation scheme Implemented in conjunction with a partnership project under the United Nations Environment Programme/Network of Institutions for Sustainable Development (UNEP-NISD) Collaboration with research institutes from six countries in East Asia (China, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam)

27. 27 Overview of RISPO-II  What is considered: East-Asian economic integration will have significant effects on the environment, poverty and sustainable development in the region. Increasing the degree of openness without the appropriate environmental policies may exacerbate environmental degradation.  Objective To provide research-based policy options useful for environmental policies within the context of East Asian economic integration.  Geographical focus: ASEAN (10 countries) + 3 (China, Japan, Korea). 6 countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) have been selected for case studies.  3 year project: April 2005–March 2008

28. 28 Research approach Integrated Policy Assessment Examines the economic, social and environmental implications of policy options, by synthesising the results of both economy-wide and sector/issue specific policy assessments. Modelling Analysis Economy-wide policy impact assessment using the modified GTAP model and other tools Scenario Approach Accommodate uncertainty in economic integration in East Asia with three scenarios (Shallow, Moderate, Deep) Policy Analysis Deeper analysis of sector/issue specific policies using a range of tools for institutional and policy impact assessment

29. 29 Expected outcome: Strategic Environmental Policy Options Policy-makers have to make decisions to prevent environmental damages caused by economic activities before damages will happen. Scenario analysis is essential to have insights what is going to happen. The development of policy responses that consider trade-offs and principles for policy choices is necessary Scenario-specific policy packages could be provided with their assessment results. Strategic Environmental Policy Options These options will assist policy-makers in developing their “sustainable development policies” with aligning development and environmental risk.

30. 30 Thank you for your attention! URL: http://www.ecoasia.org/APEIS http://www.ecoasia.org/APEIS E-mail: APEIS@env.go.jp APEIS@env.go.jp IEM: http://www-basin.nies.go.jp/english/project/iem/index.html IEA: http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/apeis/ RISPO: http://www.iges.or.jp/en/ltp/activity_rispo2.html E-mail: rispo2@iges.or.jp rispo2@iges.or.jp

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32. 32 Assessment of Safe Water/Sanitation Technologies and Management Options - India’s case using SDB - 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 200020152025200020152025 Conventional Advanced Technologies Technologies 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 200020152025200020152025 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Relative risk of diarrhea mortality Household connectionPublic standpoint Well/Pond/BoreholeRainwater Sewer connectionSeptic tank VIP/Simple pit latrineDiarreha 0 50 100 150 200 200020052010 201520202025 Year Water supply by household connection (million m3/yr) 0 5 10 15 20 200020152025 Annual cost for HC (billion$/yr) Management options can reduce leakage ofwater supply, and reduce the cost. Manage- ment options Manage- ment options Annual cost ( Bil.&/year) Relative risk of diarrhea mortality 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 200020152025200020152025 Conventional Advanced Technologies Technologies 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 200020152025200020152025 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Relative risk of diarrhea mortality Household connectionPublic standpoint Well/Pond/BoreholeRainwater Sewer connectionSeptic tank VIP/Simple pit latrineDiarreha 0 50 100 150 200 200020052010 201520202025 Year Water supply by household connection (million m3/yr) 0 5 10 15 20 200020152025 Annual cost for HC* (billion$/yr) Management options can reduce leakage ofwater supply, and reduce the cost. Manage- ment options Manage- ment options Annual cost ( Bil.&/year) Relative risk of diarrhea mortality *HC: Household Connection

33. 33 Assessment of Air Pollution and Health Impact - China’s case using AIM/Material -

34. 34 Messages from IEA -Integrated Environmental Assessment- 1.IEA tools are designed to assess policies to achieve MDG & national targets. 2.Technology and institution innovations are key to address environment and development trade-offs.

35. 35 Messages from IEA -Integrated Environmental Assessment- 3.Quantitative assessment can provide information and insights for making innovative choices delivering co-benefits 4.IEA tools link science and policy and improve effectiveness of policy-making. Further Information: http://www.ecoasia.org/APEIS/iea/ http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.htm

36. 36 Overview of RISPO-II  Hypothesis East-Asian economic integration will have significant effects on the environment, poverty and sustainable development in the region. Increasing the degree of openness without the appropriate environmental policies may exacerbate environmental degradation.  Objective To provide research-based policy options that will be useful contributions to the development of environmental policies by decision-makers, within the context of East Asian economic integration.  Geographical focus: ASEAN (10 countries) + 3 (China, Japan, Korea). 6 countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) have been selected for case studies.  3 year project: April 2005–March 2008

37. 37 Research Innovation Assess environmental impacts of trade policies Develop environmental policy packages dealing with the environmental impacts Assess economic, social and environmental outcomes (impacts) of implementing policy packages, and feed back to policy development Most existing studies on trade and environment Some studies include this, without taking into account economy-wide impact of proposed policies Innovative apporoach, which is necessary for sustainable development

38. 38 Primary outcomes Outcomes of Policy Analysis  Sector/issue specific policy packages with a wide variety of policies  Policy impact assessment of the policy packages  Institutional assessment results addressing implementability of the policy packages Outcomes of Modelling Analysis  Economy-wide policy packages with a limited range of policies  Environmental, social and economic indicators for each country, such as CO 2 emission, BOD discharge, national GDP, unemployment rate, and the poverty ratio  Evaluation results of economy-wide policy packages based on policy targets, such as CO 2 emission reduction and non-declining GDP

39. 39 Simulation of SO 2 concentration caused by traffic emission in Beijing in a winter night Critical air quality locations in Beijing: transport emissions -China’s case using AIM/Air-

40. 40 Deposition of SO 4 2- in July (kg/hectare/month)