1. 2 nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation ( ADB Technical Assistance to the Pacific) Presented by: Edy Brotoisworo Asian Development Bank

3. Climate Change Adaptation Program for the Pacific (CLIMAP) IMPLEMENTATION: Asian Development Bank IN COOPERATION WITH:Government of FSM Government of the Cook Islands SOURCE OF FUNDING: Canadian Government under the Canadian Cooperation Fund for Climate Change – GHG abatement, carbon sequestration and adaptation CONSULTANT: Maunsell Ltd, in association with: International Global Change Institute (IGCI)

4.  Objectives: mainstreaming climate adaptation through integrated risk reduction (CCIRR) into development planning in selected PDMCs and ADB operations  Activities: a. ADB Operations b. Pilot activities (Cook Islands & FSM)

5. CLIMATE SYSTEM Extreme Events Variability Change TIME Human Activities Consequences (Characterize & Evaluate) Likelihood (Characterize & Evaluate) Reduce Risk through Disaster Reduction and Adaptation Raise Risk Threshold through Adaptation Reduce Risk through Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Unacceptable Risks Acceptable Risks Learn from Experience Responding to Climate Variability & Change

7. How much warmer will it be? Increase in mean temperature by 2100 3oF3oF

8. By how much will sea level rise? 0.5 ft lowest emissions 1.3 ft typical emissions 2.8 ft highest emissions

9.  Past  Future 

10. Sea Level – Rarotonga (1977 – 2002) Pam Dec 1997 Sally Jan 1987 Val Dec 1991 Gene Mar 1992 Peni Feb 1990

11. How much wetter will it be?

12. Daily Rainfall – Rarotonga (1929 – 2003)

14. Frequency and duration of low rainfall - Pohnpei Last 50 years

15. Frequency and duration of low rainfall - Pohnpei Last 50 years Next 50 years

16. Antecedent Rainfall for Gastro Enteritis Outbreaks Pohnpei 1998-2003 Six Greatest Events Five Lowest Events

17. Consequences for Human Health

18. Adaptation to climate change is, in large part, a continuous process that involves the adjustment of society to changing risks arising from climatic extremes KEY PREMISE

19. FSM Case Studies

20. Reflecting Climate Risks in Infrastructure Design and Local Level Decision Making Demonstrated by “Climate Proofing” infrastructure and other Development projects Reflecting Climate Risks in Landuse Planning, Regulations and Permitting Demonstrated by “Climate Proofing” such instruments as the Building Code, EIA Regulations and Procedures, And Health Regulations Reflecting Climate Risks in National Development Planning Demonstrated by “Climate Proofing” National Strategic Development Plans Immediate, Project Level Long Term, National Level “Cimate Proofed” Development Enabling Environment CCAIRR Promotes Integration…… …….Mainstreaming “Climate Proofing” is shortand for reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate variability and change, including extreme events

21. Climate Proofing FSM’s National Strategic Development Plan “……… Infrastructure designed, located, built and maintained to avoid unacceptable risks to infrastructure associated with natural hazards, including weather and climate extremes, variability and change.” “……… Conduct risk assessments at state level and develop national- and state-level guidelines to ensure risks to infrastructure development projects are identified and addressed in a cost effective manner at the design stage.” National Strategic Development Plan

22. How will Climate Change Reduce Project Sustainability?

23. Roading Project: Kosrae (FSM) Design Life: 50 yr Design Rainfall: Hourly rainfall with return period of 25 yr Used: 177 mm 2000: 190 mm 2050: 254 mm

24. Climate Change will Increase Road Maintenance Costs

25. How can Project Sustainability be Maintained Despite Climate Change? “Climate Proofing” is shortand for reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate variability and change, including extreme events

26. Costs (2004 $US) Current Design Road Surface$1,254,414 Drainage Works $ 640,233 Total$1,894,647 Climate Proofed Design Road Surface$1,254,414 Drainage Works$1,151,397 Total$2,405,811 Construction Costs: RS4 (6.6 km section to be built) Incremental Cost $511,164

27. Cost-Benefit Analysis: RS4 Section Yet To Be Built Net Present Values: Current Design No climate change$4,475,200 With climate change$7,803,064 Climate Proofed Design With climate change$4,986,364 Internal Rate of Return11%

28. Costs (2004 US$) To be built section (6.6 km) US$ 77,449 per km Built section (3.2 km) US$ 242,558 per km Incremental Cost of Climate Proofing the Road Higher costs if climate proofing is retroactive

29. Will Addressing Climate Change: Increase project costs? Reduce project viability?

30. Accumulated Costs – RS4 (to be built) Climate Proofed Current Design

31. Climate Change will Reduce Community Sustainability Sokehs Federated States of Micronesia

32. Costs and Benefits of Reducing Flooding in Sapwohn Village Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Damage Costs

33. What are the Implications for Government and ADB Operations? Climate Proofing the Strategic Development Plan

34. The Adaptation Mainstreaming Guidelines Mainstreaming Principles Enhancing the Enabling Environment Harmonizing with Sustainable Devopment

35. Mainstreaming: ADB Level ProcedureEntry PointTiming Tools Country Strategy and Programme CSP Update Country Environmental Analysis CSP/CSPU [Strategic Environmental Assessment] Climate Risk Profile Project Preparatory Technical Assistance TA Paper Environmental Assessment, incl. Environmental Management Plan Report and Recommendation of the President (RRP) Pre Design Project Design Project Adaptation Brief  TOR Rapid Environmental Assessment Environmental Impact Assessment ImplementationProject Performance ReportEnvironmental Management Plan Project Completion and Evaluation Project Completion Report (PCR) Project Audit Report (PPAR) Project Completion Performance Audit

36. Some Key Points………. Despite international efforts to reduce greeenhouse gas emissions, the need to adapt to climate change is inevitable Climate change will manifest largely as changes in the frequency and consequences of extreme events, rather than as long-term trends in average conditions Adaptation should be based on effective and efficient risk reduction strategies Adaptation costs (including incremental costs) and benefits can be quantified. Typically adaptation is a cost effective intervention, especially when implemented at the design stage of a project. Retrospective adaptation incurs far greater costs

37. Some Key Points………. Requires integration (“mainstreaming”) of adaptation, across time scales and three levels: –National policy: National Strategic Development Plan –Sector policy: Landuse planning, regulation & enforcement –Project planning and implementation