1. lisa pace environmental foresight1 Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment & Management Lisa Pace Malta Council for Science & Technology Lisa.pace@mcst.org.mt

2. lisa pace environmental foresight2 Outline: Dimensions of environment. Uncertainty in complex Environmental Systems Rationale for carrying out foresight-type exercises in environment-related issues. Techniques/tools used in environmental foresight. Participatory processes and dialogue Consensus conferences Scenario analysis. Decision-support tools. Look-out panels Biomarkers

3. lisa pace environmental foresight3 The Environment – A Complex System ECONOMICDIMENSIONECONOMICDIMENSION

4. lisa pace environmental foresight4 Addressing Complex Environmental Problems as Systems Priority areas of action in the EC’s Sixth Environment Action Programme “Environment 2010: Our future, our choice”: Climate Change (Green House Gas – GHG- Emissions) Nature and protection of biodiversity Environment and Health Sustainable use of natural resources Chemicals and Air Pollution Waste Prevention and Recycling

5. lisa pace environmental foresight5 Transport

6. lisa pace environmental foresight6 Environmental represent Complex Systems with high degree of Uncertainty: Incomplete information or knowledge exists on how these systems work. Little is known on how they impact the environment and society. The impact is difficult to quantify. Models may propose different outcomes.

7. lisa pace environmental foresight7 These systems raise uncertainties of many sorts. What is the impact of GMOs on natural biodiversity and human health? What is the cost of a “No GMO” Policy? How will climate change impact biodiversity? What is the impact of fisheries on marine ecosystems?

8. lisa pace environmental foresight8 In this climate of uncertainty: Decisions must be made TODAY, before conclusive evidence is available……. The stakes revolving around these issues are normally high, with strong economic and social interests which often conflict with environmental aspects. What if these decisions are wrong? What impact will they have on society at large? How can uncertainties be taken into account in environmental policy-making?

9. lisa pace environmental foresight9 Environmental Assessment: measuring, managing, reducing uncertainty: Uncertainties cannot be eliminated but simply managed effectively and in a transparent manner. Methodologies to assess the risk and uncertainty associated with a policy issue. Environmental Assessment. The degree or level of uncertainty must be presented to policy-maker. Methodology to assess or evaluate knowledge generated in policy process. How robust and reliable is this knowledge? And therefore how effectively does it contribute to policy cycle?

10. lisa pace environmental foresight10 Creating socially-robust Knowledge to manage (reduce) uncertainty: Public participation – stakeholder engagement - in policy cycle. Increased legitimacy and transparency (this is more about the process other than the product!) Quality control such as extended peer review. Interdisciplinarity Accountability and Transparency of policy- making process. Holistic approach to environmental management – Ecosystems Management Approach

11. lisa pace environmental foresight11 The policy cycle: Foresight is seen to feed into the policy cycle at three levels: It provides tools for stakeholder engagement. Involvement in the policy process It provides for visions of future policy options through scenario analysis. It can be used as an early warning signal of environmental problems

12. lisa pace environmental foresight12 Rationale for carrying out Environmental Foresight (1): Prospective analysis can be used “…to identify emerging problems and solutions early. Provide an “Early-Warning System” to environmental issues/problems. This is more effective than the conventional approach of waiting to act until adverse effects on the environment and human health are high and in some cases irreversible”. (Alternative Futures, June 2003). Foresight can help questions such as: what are the envisaged future environmental problems? What steps should be taken to solve them (e.g. air pollution and its management) and even perhaps prevent such problems from arising in the first place? Foresight is useful in environmental assessment, a tool which provides basic information on the current state of the environment but also addresses the future state of the environment (EEA, 2000).

13. lisa pace environmental foresight13 Foresight is a useful tool for synthesising and communicating complex and extensive scientific information to decision makers and the public, thus bridging the gap between scientists and the community. A participatory approach in a foresight exercise promotes Dialogue i.e. “interaction and mutual exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders (including scientists) with the aim of promoting co-operation; it is a process of multi-lateral communication across disciplines and institutions Rationale for carrying out Environmental Foresight (1):

14. lisa pace environmental foresight14 A toolbox of foresight methods can be applied to environmental management 1. Scenario Analysis with both qualitative and quantitative elements (SAS, story-line and simulation). Back-casting techniques 2. Consensus conferences 3. Expert Panels 4. Delphi surveys 5. “Look-out” Panels 6. modelling Not all these methods are “future-oriented” but complement techniques typically used in foresight exercises. Scenario analysis is the major foresight tool used in environmental management strategies.

15. lisa pace environmental foresight15 Participatory approach in Environmental Policy- making: Building a Science –Society Dialogue A participatory approach in a foresight exercise promotes Dialogue i.e. “interaction and mutual exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders (including scientists) with the aim of promoting co- operation; it is a process of multi-lateral communication across disciplines and institutions

16. lisa pace environmental foresight16

17. lisa pace environmental foresight17 Consensus Conferences – –Democratic tool used to promote dialogue between experts and non-experts. –Involves the non-expert or lay public in policy-making process where the non-expert could include decision-makers in company (top-management), directors in government departments, ministers, lay public, board of directors etc. –Described as a “Citizen’s Jury”. A citizens or lay panel a list of key questions to address to an expert panel during the three-day conference. –Used to discuss “hot”, emerging issues in S&T.

18. lisa pace environmental foresight18 Consensus Conferences: Examples: Widely used in Denmark in relation to public perception of GM Foods and gene therapy. UK National Consensus Conference on Plant Biotechnology, 1996 UK National Consensus Conference on Waste, 1996 Fast Food and technoburgers, Norwegian Consensus Conference, 1996 Safety and Ethics of GMOS, Korea 1998 Korean Second Consensus Conference on Cloning, 1999 Australian Biotech Consensus Conference, 1999 (GM Foods and Feed Issues)

19. lisa pace environmental foresight19 Scenario Building:

20. lisa pace environmental foresight20 Example 1: COOL Climate OptiOns for the Long- term, The Netherlands Combined Qualitative-Quantitative and Anticipatory (normative) scenarios Two-year foresight exercise with the goal of: “Developing recommendations for drastic (80%) Green House Gas (GHG) emission reductions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels”. Time-horizon: 2050 Baseline year: 1990 Discussed possibility of emission reductions in 4 sectors: (1) Industry & Energy (2) Housing & Construction (3) Transport & Traffic and (4) Agriculture & Nutrition. Back-casting Technique: retrospective in that starts from a pre- determined desirable final state and explores conditions and strategies to achieve this state. It can be divided into a number of steps.

21. lisa pace environmental foresight21 Back-casting Technique to build Scenarios for Energy Sector

22. lisa pace environmental foresight22 Governance of Water Resources – the GOUVERNE Project FP5 Research Project implemented by a consortium of partners, including the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. Aims: Application of suitable tools, namely scenario analysis to the policy debate on “The future of ground water resources in a valley in the South West of France”.

23. lisa pace environmental foresight23 GOUVERNE Project Involvement of all relevant social actors or stakeholders in the debate. Develop an ICT tool to support decision- making and policy-making processes/

24. lisa pace environmental foresight24 GOUVERNE Methodology in Brief: Interviews to identify major stakeholders in study area and understand nature of issue and conflicting interests in the French valley. Focus groups with stakeholders to identify (1) Drivers which are likely to affect the future water system (hydrological system) of the valley. Scenario Analysis based on identified drivers of change: scenarios are narratives describing how stakeholders see the valley change in 2015 Ranking of these scenarios. Which is the most likely or preferred scenario?

25. lisa pace environmental foresight25 GOUVERNe Project The outcome of the project: Scenarios for the future hydrological system of the valley Stakeholder awareness and involvement in resource governance. An ICT tool for better resource management.

26. lisa pace environmental foresight26 “Look-out Panels” – identifying biomarkers of environmental health. Specialised look-out panels set up within public and/or private sector to identify biomarkers of environmental health. Panels may form part of the permanent set-up of organisation or appointed ad-hoc. Properties of biomarkers: Early-warning signals of stress/disease and environmental degradation. Described as “surrogate end-points” as they can identify early symptoms before disease actually manifests itself e.g. heart disease. Huge savings on health care systems. Biomarkers must be evaluated and validated (e.g. by community reference laboratories).

27. lisa pace environmental foresight27 Examples of Biomarkers: Medicine and Health: –Blood pressure and cholesterol-LDL as surrogate end points of heart disease. –Reduced T lymphocyte count and HIV load as surrogate end point of AIDS. –Genetic fingerprinting Environment: Changes in DNA structure as a result of exposure to organic pollutants (PCBs) Accumulation of deposits in cells of molluscs as a result of heavy metal contamination Reproductive sterility Embryonic deformities in echinoderms such as sea urchin. Eutrophication – an indicator of nutrient enrichment