1. Environmental indicators in economic models JM Terres – JRC – Institute for Environment and Sustainability 1 Outline Broad challenges Modelling agricultural impact on the environment. BioMA concept. Tools at farm level, policy measure level Integrated economic and agri-environment modeling. CAPRI – Environment:. IFM-CAP-Agri-Environment Indicators Future challenges – how to tackle them

2. Broad challenges of Agriculture and Environment Models for evaluation and impact assessment  EC to report by 2018 – and every 4 years thereafter – on CAP performance for main objectives (food production, natural resources, territorial development). CAP Horizontal Regulation - Monitoring & Evaluation  N eed to test ‘internally’ variant scenarios for policy design  Budget for Europe 2020: 20% for climate related expenditure  Prospective: sustainability assessment, food security, footprint, LC analysis, planet boundaries …

3. 3 Model Integration: BioMA - Biophysical Model Applications Modelling agricultural impact on environment Water Erosion Temperature SOIL Weather Agro-management Modelling solution Diseases Crop model implemented wofostwarm: rice canegrow

4. The libraries currently available 4 Weather libraries AirTemperature, EvapoTranspiration, LeafWetness Climate indices Weather Generation (ClimGen, CLIMAK) … Weather libraries AirTemperature, EvapoTranspiration, LeafWetness Climate indices Weather Generation (ClimGen, CLIMAK) … Plant libraries Generic crop Simulation (CropSyst, WOFOST) Pasture (STIC) Rice (WARM) SugarCane (CANEGRO) … Plant libraries Generic crop Simulation (CropSyst, WOFOST) Pasture (STIC) Rice (WARM) SugarCane (CANEGRO) … Soil libraries Soil water runoff and erosion Soil water redistribution (cascading, FiniteDifferences) Soil surface and profile temperature Soil Nitrogen Pedotransfer functions … Soil libraries Soil water runoff and erosion Soil water redistribution (cascading, FiniteDifferences) Soil surface and profile temperature Soil Nitrogen Pedotransfer functions … Agriculture management Rule based modelling Agriculture management Rule based modelling Stresses Abiotic Heat damage Frost kill Rice cold shocks Lodging … Biotic Generic air-borne diseases Generic soil-borne diseases CornBorer simulator … Stresses Abiotic Heat damage Frost kill Rice cold shocks Lodging … Biotic Generic air-borne diseases Generic soil-borne diseases CornBorer simulator …

5. 5 Tools assessing farm practices, policy measures  Low Carbon Farming: a carbon calculator  Assess carbon footprint of farm practices and farm products client: DG ENV  SOSTARE: Sustainability assessment at farm level  agronomic efficiency  economic results  protection of the environment client: Regione Lombardia  OSCAR: Assessing GHG emission for Rural Development measures Client DG CLIMA

6. 6 CAPRI for agri-environmental assessment: why? Provides input data to bio-physical models or to indicators (e.g crop shares, animal stocking densities, yields, input use (N,P,K; energy; feed...) Ex-post data (e.g. production, consumption, trade flows, prices, crop shares, yield, N-fertilizer input per crop …)  are based on EU official data sources (FSS, FADN …)  are consistent across scales: farm type / region / MS / EU / trade blocks  are used in economic modules and passed to environmental models / indicators The CAPRI baseline  is in line with DG-AGRI projections,  provides benchmark for counterfactual scenarios Therefore consistent modelling chain for economic (farm income, trade flows …) and environmental assessment is ensured Integrated economic and agri-environment modeling

7. Linking economic to environmental models 7 CAPRI Crop share Meteo Admin units Soil Landform Inputs (NPK) Bio-physical / environmental model Results: NUTS2 Local / detailed spatial data Linking economic & bio-physical models

8. AE Indicators available in CAPRI 8 N,P balances: Gross Nutrient Balance (N, P) Accounting scheme for emissions relevant for Global Warming mutually consistent with N-Balance (GHG, NH 3, NO x, N 2, NO 3 − ) Energy use indicator for agricultural activities Accounts for direct (gas, heating..) and indirect (fertilizers, plant protection, machinery, buildings, feed …) energy input  Risk of Soil Erosion  Biodiversity Friendly Farming Practices  Agricultural Landscape Structure  Farmland Bird Index (proxy)

9. Application example: CAP greening measures Modelisation of CAP greening measures  Permanent grasslands: maintenance of grassland area to prevent its conversion to arable land.  Ecological focus area (5% fallow and/or set-aside land of total eligible area, landscape features)  Crop diversity:  minimum 3 crops on arable land  minimum and maximum thresholds for each crop set at 5% and 70% of the arable land, respectively. 9 To be updated

10. CAP Greening measures: environmental assessment with CAPRI - Results 10  Decrease (small) in cereal area  Decrease (small) nb beef animals, sheep & goat  Cereal yield: +2.2%  Cattle activities yield: +1.6%  Leakage (limited) effect outside EU on environment  Import cereal (+1.040.000t), from Europe (non-EU) and North America Overall, no (big) environmental changes between Greening and Baseline:  N balance: limited positive impact (-0.2 kg ha -1 for EU27)  Global Warming Potential: slightly lower GWP (-0.5% for EU27)  Soil Erosion: no impact CAPRI modeling : allows quantitative environmental assessment (incl. CMEF indicators), fully consistent with economic results (farm supply, welfare analysis, trade …) => increased productivity

11. Modelling EU Farmer level responses: A EU wide farm level model for ex-ante assessment of CAP reform. Individual-Farm Level Model (IFM-CAP) Agri-Environmental Indicators AE commitments Soil Management Pesticides Nutrient management Water management GHG / ammonia emissions Biodiversity Energy prod / consumption Cost Production factors

12. 12 Future challenges Integrated Modeling in Agriculture (Eco) & Environment

13. 13 Thank you Impact of agriculture on the environment or impact of the environment on agriculture...

14. 14 GGELS: A Life Cycle Analysis in CAPRI to GHG emissions for the livestock sector in the EU Main results Share of total GHG emission for livestock sector ( Mt CO 2 eq ) Total and composition of GHG emission per kg of product