1. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action WP2 Energy Baseline Assessment and Target Setting

2. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Objective of WP2 Carry out an energy baseline assessment within the community boundaries Define the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources Set own individual project objectives Monitor progress of the project objectives

3. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Energy accounting procedure It is important that local communities carry out an overall energy accounting procedure in order to understand thoroughly the real state of energy flows and, thus, the effectiveness of implemented actions to change such flows. It is known that the variability of situations among the communities will give a broader base for the choice and evaluation of a generic baseline assessment and monitoring method. Notwithstanding this, it is considered important that some common rules are assumed by each community, through a common energy assessment baseline methodology.

4. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Evolution in time of energy consumptions Energy accounting procedure Analysis should be carried out in the most complete way as possible, for the year closest to the time of drafting of the account and according to the availability of data. It is however essential to gather information even from previous years, in order to be able to establish a historical track of energy flows. In this way it is possible to unravel trends which, presumably, can provide useful information for future developments of the energy system and to average yearly fluctuations due to external factors Guidelines were implemented for the energy accounting procedure, leaving to each community the possibility to adapt the baseline assessment according to its own characteristics and requirement. Some points are considered important in the procedure.

5. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Energy consumptions disaggregated by sectors Energy accounting procedure Energy consumption should be split according to given activity sectors, since this allows to specify the behaviour of each sector and to enhance particular actions. The suggested partitioning is: residential, tertiary, Industrial & agricolture, transports. Energy consumptions disaggregated by vectors Final energy use should concern all energy vectors (gas, oil, coal, electricity, etc.) that are consumed by each analyzed sector during a year.

6. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action The final energy balance can be expressed, for each year, through the following matrix Energy accounting procedure

7. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action According to what efficiency actions the local community intends to carry out, it could be useful to gain a more in-depth quantitative outline in the chosen sector. It may be therefore necessary to integrate earlier analysis with a review of energy demand for each sector. This can be obtained by assessing final energy uses. Energy accounting procedure In-depth assessment Thermal consumptions Electric consumptions Transports Building heatingLightningPrivate transport Hot water productionOffice equipmentPublic transport CookingConditioningRailways Process heatElectric motors….. ………..…………..

8. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Potential scenario Maximum improvement potentials of the system through the large application of RES/RUE initiatives (potential assessments) Target scenario Improvement targets of the local energy system through the selection of a set of actions (target setting) Business as usual scenario Evolution of the system according to standard mechanisms; no particular strategy aimed at changing the energy system Target setting procedure to define a reference short-medium time horizon and to analyze the development of the energy system within this frame (~2015)

9. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action The definition of this scenario considers any future change regarding the energy demand and supply Business as usual scenario Future population and demographic structure; Future house offer; Future services and industrial activities; Future buildings energy consumption and needs; Future mobility needs; Future use/diffusion of energy consuming devices among end-users; Future efficiency of energy consuming devices; Future use/diffusion of different energy production technologies. Changes will be quantified on the basis of the future urban structure of the area and according to the weight, on energy consumptions, of European national and local plans and of the development of technological and socio- economical factors and parameters such as: Target setting procedure

10. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action After the identification of the standard scenario, the potential scenario will has to be carried on a detailed survey of the available resources at local level, considering both the offer of energy sources and the potential of energy savings. The aim of the survey is the quantification of the improvement potentials of the system through the large application of RES/RUE initiatives. The potential assessments clearly gives a scenario which is feasible only theoretically, without defining any time frame. It describes a limit situation which is compatible with the technical feasibility of the interventions and it gives an idea of the maximum possible results. It is highlighted that, notwithstanding the term “potential”, this scenario has to be related to real conditions. Potential scenario Target setting procedure

11. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Target scenario The identification of the business as usual and of the potential scenario gives the range of the impacts of RES and RUE actions. It is then requested to perform an analysis in order to: target setting Definition of the improvement targets of the local energy system and selection of a set of actions feasible within the short-medium time horizon that will identify the frame of the local energy plan choices (SEC strategy) –identify and analyze factors that may halt the realization of the actions defined in the potential scenario; –identify the suitable tools for the overcoming of the halting factors; –verify the availability of the tools and the needed procedures (of any type: managerial, legislative, technical...) for their activation. Target setting procedure

12. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action The improvement targets must be characterized by technological innovation and by the diffusion of good practises in large sectors, starting from those showing the highest potential of success. standardized The final target must transform best practises into “standardized” actions. This goal springs from the awareness that the evolution of the energy system towards higher consumptions and emissions levels, can only be halted by the implementation of extensive actions, involving the highest possible number of subjects, areas and technologies. Target scenario Target setting procedure

13. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Local administrations can contribute to the definition of targets, strategic lines and tools considering their role distributed according to three different levels. It is useful to maintain such a distribution while defining targets. A precise definition and quantification of targets must be done simultaneously with the definition of strategic lines and tools. Target scenario Target setting procedure Local administration Planner & regulator Owner & manager Promoter & coordinator Targets StrategyTools

14. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Monitoring procedure The monitoring process is needed to follow progresses toward the defined targets, starting from the present situation. It helps to make corrections in case reality is not moving in the target direction. The monitoring procedure has to take into account:  what to monitor  how to monitor  when to monitor What to monitor The real success of the implemented strategy to reach the targets is based on quantitative results. Results can be reached through a complex process that require the preparation of proper tools.

15. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action How to monitor Results: The minitoring process needs to be related to the energy assessment process, which can be considered a monitoring at time 0. As a general rule it is proposed that the following three steps be performed: –the monitoring of the energy balance of the whole communal area (divided by sectors and vectors); –the monitoring of the single implemented actions; –the comparison and evaluation of the effect of single action on the total energy balance. Tools: A list of tools needed to implement the action has to be draft at the beginning of the planning process. Such tools need to be monitored in terms of their effectiveness. Monitoring procedure

16. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action When to monitor The frecuency of monitoring depends on the actions that are going to be implemented (duration, complexity, etc.). Monitoring of the energy balance of the whole communal area can be done each year or two years. Indicators are going to be developed in order to help the monitoring process. Monitoring procedure

17. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Energy accounting procedure Main results

18. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Energy accounting procedure Main results FoggiaAstiRavennaBredaDobrichCreilsheim Civil Sector Residential Tertiary Productive activities industry agricolture Transports Total final energy consumptions (TJ) 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Foggia 9.2899.57910.0049.5799.5509.8149.4289.7749.6399.5629.929 Asti 7.1167.2427.0747.2427.2847.0337.2427.4097.493 Ravenna 15.11017.51918.05217.57819.36119.45820.098 Breda 36.344 (?) Dobrich 9081.0121.0581.9182.086 Creilsheim 5.843

19. Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007 MU ltiplying S ustainable E nergy C ommunities – A Blueprint for action Energy accounting procedure Main results FoggiaAstiRavennaBredaDobrichCreilsheimValby Electricity Natural gas Liquid gas Oil products gasoline Gas/diesel oil Fuel oil LPG Motor fuels Coal Biomass/wood Solar thermal District heating