1. Policy Modelling in Practice Workshop ePolicy Exploitation of Results - Challenges and Opportunities Prince Philip House, London 8 th December 2014 Tony Woods PPA Energy

2. INTRODUCTION ePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

3. ePolicy – What is it? ePolicy An EU FP7 funded project Aimed at developing tools that support policy making decisions Dissemination and exploitation is a key part of the project This presentation will introduce the ePolicy project, and discuss the strategies and obstacles for dissemination and exploitation of the results.

4. THE ePolicy PROJECT ePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

5. Background Public policy issues are often extremely complex, occur in rapidly changing and uncertain environments, involve balancing different interests, and managing conflicts between interest groups. Energy policies strongly affect economic development, environmental impacts and social acceptance. More and more emphasis is being given to sustainable energy policies.

6. ePolicy Project ePolicy Project: Funding: EU FP7 STREP Project funded under ICT tools for Governance and Policy Modelling Aim: to develop an advanced integrated IT tool to support the decisions of policy makers Methodology: Multi-disciplinary approach, merging global and individual perspectives Case study: aspects of the Emilia Romagna regional Energy Plan Exploitation: Methodology for extending the tools to different applications has been developed.

7. ePolicy Partners Universities: ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna (Italy) The University of Surrey (UK) Università di Ferrara (Italy) University College Cork (Ireland) Public Sector: Regione Emilia Romagna (Italy) Private sector: PPA Energy (UK) Research Agency: ASTER (Italy) Research Institutions: INESC Tec, Associate Laboratory (Portugal) Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics Research (Germany)

8. ePolicy – How it is made up Opinion mining Global optimiser Incentive design Social simulator Visualisations

9. O PTIMISE I NCENTIVE M ECHANISMS I NCENTIVE P OLICY € t 1 policy per instrument MW t trends Opinions t environment Quality t I NCENTIVE M ECHANISMS P OLICY T ARGET E NERGY M ONEY O PINIONS P OLICY M AKER C ITIZENS E NVIRONMENTAL E XPERT Global Optimiser Opinion Mining Incentive Design Social Simulator ePolicy Tools

10. ++ --- + 0 +1 +2 -2 2009 2010 2011 2012 Opinion Mining - Introduction

11. Opinion Mining - Visualisation 2 - 1 - 0 - -1 - -2 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Solar Panels - General Categories Economic Aspect Environmental Aspect Technology Aspect CategoryScoreTitleAuthorDateText Technology1Xxx XxXxxxxDATEXxxx Xxx Xxxx Xx Xxxx 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 – 1 – 0 – -1 – -2 –

12. Incentive Design and Social Simulator - Introduction

13. Incentive Design and Social Simulator - Visualisation Installed Capacity (Cumulative) 500- 400- 300- 200- 100- 0- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 MW Costs (per year) 400M- 0- -400M- -800M- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Overall Euro Participant Rates (per year) 80k- 60k- 40k- 20k- 0- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Overall

14. Global Optimiser- Introduction List of activit ies with : Costs Impact s Enviro nmenta l Impact s Required Energy Budget Constrai nts Targets OPTIM ISED PLANS

15. Global Optimiser- Visualisation Impacts on Environment Compare Plans Energy Cost Plan 1- Plan 2- Plan 3- 3.45k 1.77k 2.61k 12.0B 6.09B 9.05B MWEuro Compare Plans by Energy Source Energy Cost Solar PV Hydro Solar Thermal Thermal Biomass Wind 1k 2k kTOE Euro 4B 8B

16. Where we are now Now in the final months of the project: ePolicy has developed tools that support policy making decisions These are currently focused on the policy of the Emilia- Romagna region in Italy for regional planning and for designing incentives for fostering the adoption of renewable energy, specifically photovoltaics However, the tools and knowledge developed have potential applications far beyond this

17. POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS ePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

18. HIGHER SCALE: National and EU LOWER SCALE: Province and Municipality OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE RER ENERGY PLAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOROTHER SECTORS ePolicy Tool: RER Energy plan Renewable Energy Potential Extensions to the Tools

19. HIGHER SCALE LOWER SCALE OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN Using the tools at a higher scale This includes at the : EU level National level The DSS would need to be tailored for various policy structures For example ePolicy tools could be used to: EU: Develop high level renewable energy targets, taking account of Sustainable Development Indicators National: Identify which technologies should be developed and the incentives to support them

20. Using the tools in other regions Including: Within Italy, where there are policy structures similar to RER Elsewhere, allowing for varied policy structures Elements of the system would need to be changed, for example: DSS: tailored to the policy structure of the target region Social Simulator: tuned to the characteristics of the new population HIGHER SCALE LOWER SCALE OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

21. Using the tools at a lower scale At a lower scale including: Provinces, counties Municipalities, cities Towns, villages The aim may be a detailed understanding of the optimal balance of resources and interventions Provincial and municipality level policy structures are likely to be similar to the regional ones The changes to the tool would be the same as using it in other regions HIGHER SCALE LOWER SCALE OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

22. Using the tools in other policy areas Examples: Transport Education Health Housing Required changes will depend on the structure of the specific policy plan Plans are likely to include the following: Existing situation and previous plans Objectives and Strategies Priorities and interventions Implementation and Monitoring HIGHER SCALE LOWER SCALE OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

23. Using the tools for other parts of the RER Energy Plan An example of this could be energy efficiency In both the renewable energy and energy efficiency policy areas: Numerous possible measures exist There are many barriers to implementation Several potential instruments to incentivise adoption can be devised It is likely that the tools can be tailored to this application with only a small amount of effort HIGHER SCALE LOWER SCALE OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

24. Using the tools for private sector applications Examples could include Load Control Programmes Product Design Decisions Environmental assessment HIGHER SCALE LOWER SCALE OTHER POLICY AREAS PRIVATE SECTOR OTHER REGIONS OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN Load Control Programmes: Support the balance of electricity supply and demand Service providers may introduce incentives to encourage usage behavior Strategies could be optimised using tools based on ePolicy.

25. USING ePolicy KNOWLEDGE ePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

26. Telling People About ePolicy Dissemination to the scientific community Dissemination to the Public Stakeholders involvement

27. Engaging Potential Users Stakeholder Events, for example: The Constraint Programming, Artificial Intelligence and Operations Research (CPAIOR) conference (Cork), and Samos Summit (Greece) Networking with the existing contacts of the ePolicy team: Italian policy makers: Emilia Romagna regional government, Italian Ministry of Economic Development UK policy makers: Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) ENEL Private Sector – Yachts

28. Using ePolicy Knowledge: Hurdles There are many potential barriers to exploitation of the ePolicy tools including: Access to the right people Acceptance Technical Tool usability and accessibility Project scope, effort and funding required Identification of future development opportunities

29. Further uses of the ePolicy tools discussed Uses at a higher scale DECC: Discussions about developing a social simulator for PV in the UK Other policy areas Distributing Structural Funds Scenario evaluation and Strategic Environmental Assessment Usage in business models Using the ePolicy methodology to define business models and pricing arrangements for ENEL in a new EU project called DAREED Confidential discussions with others

30. In summary……… The ePolicy team has developed powerful new tools aimed at helping the policy decision making process The tools and capability developed are relevant for all areas of policy making and beyond We are telling stakeholders and academics about these tools wherever possible We are demonstrating the tools The aim is to find ways to take the development and application of these tools forward However there are barriers to overcome If you would like to know more talk to a member of the ePolicy team

31. If you would like to discuss ePolicy further, or would like to see a demonstration of the system, please come and find Tony or Olivia