2. Baltic fishing: is there a future? Lysekil 25 May 2006 Bengt Sjöstrand Inst. of Marine Research.

3. Catches are high

4. Very high from a historical point of view

5. Fish in the sea

6. Any problems?

7. Stock situation Baltic Herring & Sprat Spawning stock

8. Threshold Stock situation Cod-E Bornholm Spawning stock

9. ”Biologically safe limits” If spawning stock goes beneath a certain level, the risk of bad production of young fish inreases. = Blim = limit Managers should react before this limit is reached due to all uncertainties in the whole system. = Bpa = threshold

10. LIMIT THRESHOLD ” Biologically safe limits” SPAWNING FISH (ton) Number of recruits (000)

11. Precautionary Approach LIMIT THRESHOLD SPAWNING STOCK REACT! Stop! Fishing mortality Limit Threshold Whitin biol safe limits

12. Cod in the Baltic, E Bornholm This stock is outside safe biological limits

13. Cod is in trouble. Only in the Baltic?

14. Threshold Stock situation Cod Kattegatt Spawning stock

15. Stock situation Cod Nordsjön-Skagerrak Threshold

16. Stock situation Cod North Norway-Barents Sea

17. Cod in Northeast Atlantic Landing (000) ton

18. Cod in Northeast Atlantic proportion in EU-waters

19. Why are there so few old fishes now? An effect of high fishing mortality

20. Fishery mortality - Age composition F 25% F 50% F 70% AGE NUMBERNUMBER

21. R/V Dana March 1987, S Baltic

22. The importance of old females (of cod) They produce more eggs : 4 y 45-50 cm, 1 kg - 0.7 miljon egg 10 y ca 100 cm,7 kg - 5 miljon egg They produce bigger egg: better survival, better boyancy Bigger eggs give longer larvæ with better survival.

23. Low recruitment of young cod High fishing mortality causes low spawning stock with increased risk for bad recruitment. Low frequence of saltwater inflows causes low survival of eggs and larvæ Number of cod age 2

24. EFFECTS on the ECOSYSTEM LARGE PREDATORS LACKING PREY SPECIES NUMEROUS THEY EAT MORE: ZOOPLANKTON, EGG, LARVÆ LESS ALGÆ ARE CONSUMED. Top-down effects?, Bottom-up effects? Has the system flipped? Are the processes reversibel?

25. Are the prospects for a recovery of cod in EU- waters good?

26. NO

27. Cod will not make the basis for a fishery of resonable size within the coming 10 years (E Baltic, Kattegatt, North Sea-Skagerrak)

28. What are needed to restore fish stocks?

29. The decrease must be substantial Now 65-75% of the fishes are caught The most efficient way towards recovery would be NO FISHING Sustainable level of F ca 25% A decrease of fishery mortality

30. Cod Baltic E Bornholm ICES ADVICE -DECISION 2001 Max 39 000 t105 000 ton 2002 Lowest possible(0)76 000 ton 2003 Decrease F 70%75 000 ton 2004 Max t 13 000 t 45 400 ton 2005 No fishing42 800 ton 2006 Max 14 900 t if MP 49 200 ton

31. SCIENTIFIC ADVICE AND POLITICAL DECISIONS

32. Why are the advice not followed?

33. Difficulties for decision makers COD: most economically important fishery (Baltic Sea) Caught in mixed fisheries (Nordsjön, Katt.Skag) –Fishtrawl - haddock, withing –Beamtrawl - plaice, sole –Nephrops trawl - Nephrops

34. Difficulties for decision makers COD Also the mixed fisheries have to be reduced for efficient cod management ”There are no cod, why should we suffer?” - haddock fishers, North Sea, nephrops fishers, Kattegatt, Skagerrack

35. Difficulties for decision makers DISCARDED FISH Cod in swedish trawlcatches - Kattegatt

36. Difficulties for decision makers Example of discard 31%68%Catch weight 76%24%Catch number DiscardedLanded Mean weight130 g860 g Cod in swedish trawlcatches - Kattegatt

37. Difficulties for decision makers COD To reach international agreements when a certain regulatory measure hits differently among countries To handle bankruptcies, unemployment among fishers To withstand preassure from demonstrations, blocades etc To agree with regional och local decision makers in the country

38. Why is fish discarded? ◊They are too small (unlegal to land) ◊The quotum is filled (unlegal to land) ◊You want to fill your quotum/ration with bigger, more valuable fish (high- grading)

39. Who is to be blamed?

40. Contributing factors The conflicting goals in the policy: simultaneously: conserve stocks and promote the industry (by the same authority) Fishers lack distinct fishing rights: –It would not pay to save fish for to- morrow/next year

41. Contributing factors Fishery: Too large total catches, lack in control, enforcement large bycatches of small fish Overcapacity in fleets - subsidies

42. FISHERY POLICY Fish Fishing CONSERVE STOCKS PROMOTE INDUSTRY § €

43. FUNDING (EU+national.) 5-year plan 1994-99 826 mill. € for scrapping, 548 mill € for building + modernizing GOAL: REDUCE 40% ! ¤

44. PRODUCTIVITY IN SWEDISH FISHERY i 99 års priser ¤

45. CONSERVE STOCKS PROMOTE INDUSTRY € § FISHERY POLICY Fish Fishing

46. The outcome BUILDING- MODERNIZING SUBSIDIES SCRAPPING SUBSIDIES YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO USE YOUR BOATS - TOO LITTLE FISH ! INDUSTRY STOCKS

47. To-day : Stoch crises - overfishing overcapacity in fleets inreasing cheating, distrust, frustration

48. The challenge Accomplish a substantial cut down of fleets. Pay for it. Give remaining fishers some form of rights. Create a number of no-fishing areas No fishing without fish. Many fishes without fishing.

49. Thanks for your attention