1. Input-Output Model Basics Tom Harris University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development MS 204 Reno, NV 89557-0105 and Gerald A. Doeksen Oklahoma State University Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service 515 Ag Hall Stillwater, OK 74078

2. Examples of Interrelationships Between Sectors: Sectors purchase from other sectors Sectors sell to other sectors Sectors sell outside the local economy Sectors buy outside the local economy

3. Households Industry Basic Services Goods & $ Inputs Products Inputs $$ $ $ Services $$ Labor Overview of Community Economic System

4. Input-Output analysis creates a picture of a regional economy describing flows to and from industries and institutions

5. What Input-Output Analysis Can Do: Input-Output Analysis is an accounting framework Input-Output analysis can be used to predict changes in overall economic activity as a result of some change in the local economy

6. Uses of Input-Output Analysis Provides a description of a local economy Predictive model to estimate impacts

7. 3 Basic Components of Input-Output Models Transactions Table Direct Requirements Table Total Requirements Table

8. Transactions Table A transactions table shows the monetary flows of goods and services in a local economy Represents monetary flows for a given time period, usually one year

9. Transactions Table Flows Total outlays = Total output Intermediate purchases are goods and services purchased and used in the local production process Final demands are purchases for final consumption Final payments are payments for factors or inputs outside intermediate production process

10. Example Transactions Table Selling Sectors ($ million) Purchasing Sectors ($ million) AgricultureHealthServicesFinal Total DemandsOutput Agriculture10621836 Health4432637 Services6213544 Final162538079 Payments Total Input36374479196

11. Predictive Use of Input-Output Analysis Impacts are tracked throughout the economy The multipliers are derived from regional economic accounts Only local transactions are used to create the multiplier effect

12. Direct Requirements Table Direct requirements are the purchases of resources (inputs) by a sector from all sectors to produce one dollar of output Creates a production recipe

13. Selling Sectors Purchasing Sectors AgricultureHealthServices Agriculture0.2780.1620.045 Health0.1110.1080.068 Services0.1670.0540.023 Final Payments0.4440.6760.864 Total 1.0001.0001.000 Direct Requirements Table

14. What are Multipliers? Multipliers measure total change throughout the economy from one unit change for a given sector.

15. Three Types of Multipliers are calculated from Model 1.Output 2.Employment 3.Income

16. Three levels of Multipliers Type I Multipliers Type II Multipliers Type III Multipliers

17. Type I Multipliers Include direct or initial spending Include indirect spending or businesses buying and selling to each other The multiplier is direct plus indirect effect divided by direct effect

18. Type II Multipliers Includes Type I Multiplier effects Plus household spending based on the income earned from the direct and indirect effects – the induced effects

19. TYPE III MULTIPLIERS Type III Multipliers are modified Type II multipliers. Therefore, Type III Multipliers also include the direct, indirect, and induced effects. Type III Multipliers adjust Type II Multipliers based on spending patterns amongst different income groups.

20. Type I Multipliers include:  Direct  Indirect (Business Spending) Type I Multipliers are derived from the Total Requirements Table In math, this is: X = (1-A) -1 Y

21. Selling Sectors ($ million) Purchasing Sectors ($ million) AgricultureHealthServices Agriculture1.4460.2680.085 Health0.1991.1630.090 Services0.2580.1101.043 Total 1.9031.5411.218 Total Requirements Table

22. Explaining the Health Sector Type I Multiplier For a $1.00 change in final demand sales in the local economy, the total direct and indirect impacts are $1.541

23. Type II Multipliers include:  Direct  Indirect (Businesses)  Induced (Households) Type II Multipliers are derived from the Total Requirements Table with Households

24. Selling Sectors ($ million) Purchasing Sectors ($ million) AgHealthServicesHouse-Final Total holdsDemandsOutput Ag106221636 Health443101637 Services62172844 Households36100019 Final1319280060 Payments Total Input3637441960196 Transactions Table with Households

25. Selling Sectors Purchasing Sectors AgricultureHealthServicesHouseholds Agriculture1.5360.3690.1970.429 Health0.3861.3700.3180.879 Services0.3880.2561.2030.619 Households0.2790.3110.3411.319 Total2.5892.3072.0593.245 Total Requirements Table with Households

26. Explaining the Health Sector Type II Multiplier For a $1.00 change in final demand sales in the local economy, the total direct, indirect and induced impacts are $2.307

27. Multipliers Direct requirements represent direct or initial spending Direct and indirect effects include the direct spending plus the indirect spending or businesses buying and selling to each other Direct, indirect and induced effects include direct and indirect plus household spending earned from direct and indirect effects

28. Other Multipliers Employment Multipliers Type I Type II Type III Income Multipliers Type I Type II Type III

29. Example - Type I Employment Multiplier Agricultural Sector Type I Employment Multiplier = 1.43 When the Agricultural Sector realizes a 1 employee change, total employment in the study area changes by 1.43 jobs from direct and indirect linkages

30. Example – Type II Employment Multiplier Agricultural Sector Type II Employment Multiplier = 2.25 When the Agricultural Sector realizes a 1 employee change, total employment in the study area changes by 2.25 jobs from direct, indirect and induced linkages

31. Breakdown of Type II Employment Multiplier - Agricultural Sector Direct Effects = 1.00 Indirect Effects = 0.43 Induced Effects = 0.82 Total= 2.25

32. Example – Type I Income Multiplier Agricultural Sector Type I Income Multiplier = 1.96 When the Agricultural Sector realizes a $1.00 change in income, total income in the study area changes by $1.96 from direct and indirect linkages

33. Example - Type II Income Multiplier Agricultural Sector Type II Income Multiplier = 2.50 When the Agricultural Sector realizes a $1.00 change in income, total income in the study area changes by $2.50 from direct, indirect and induced linkages

34. Breakdown of Type II Income Multiplier - Agricultural Sector Direct Effects =$1.00 Indirect Effects =$0.96 Induced Effects =$0.54 Total=$2.50

35. Caution When Using Multipliers Multiplier values include direct effects Do not aggregate sector multipliers to derive an aggregate multiplier Be cautious of large multipliers Be cautious in using a multiplier from another study area

36. Procedures Used For This Analysis IMPLAN (IMPact analysis for PLANning) * Geographical database * Software and data for model construction and impact analysis * History of IMPLAN

37. IMPLAN USE FOR HEALTH SECTOR ANALYSIS Develop county-wide input-output model From State Employment Security Offices derived health sector employment Use IMPLAN to derive county-wide output, employment, income and sales tax impacts from the local health sector

38. Database of IMPLAN 528 Industrial Sectors Most 3 or 4 digit SIC All standard counties in the U.S. Now available at zip code level

39. Any Questions?