1. Regional Director for Europe
THE FIRST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN THE CASPIAN REGION
16-17 December, 2011
Isabel Garaña
Regional Director for Europe
UNWTO

2. …who are
we…?
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO/OMT) is a specialized agency of the United ‎Nations and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a ‎global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how.‎ UNWTO plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, ‎sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the ‎interests of developing countries.‎ The Organization encourages the implementation ‎of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member ‎countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, ‎social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its ‎negative social and environmental impacts.‎ Its membership includes 155 countries, 7 territories and over 400 Affiliate ‎Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations ‎and local tourism authorities.‎ Direct actions that strengthen and support the efforts of National Tourism ‎Administrations are carried out by UNWTO's regional representatives (Africa, the ‎Americas, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia) based at ‎the Headquarters in Madrid.‎ UNWTO is committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared ‎toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.‎

3. The World Tourism Organization is an intergovernmental body, fully integrated into the United Nations system as one of its specialized agencies, with a cultural and deceive role in tourism issues
Mission
To provide leadership to the sector
Global Tourism Policy Forum
Tourism knowledge and awareness raising
TO PROVIDE SERVICES TO ITS MEMBERS
To help Member States to develop and manage tourism in the most sustainable and competitive manner
Mainstream tourism in the political agendas

4. 400+ Affiliate Members from over 80 countries
OUR MEMBERS
155 countries
400+ Affiliate Members from
over 80 countries
UNWTO works with National Tourism ‎Administrations of Member states via regional representatives (Africa, the ‎Americas, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia) based at ‎the Headquarters in Madrid.‎
Affiliate Members include:
private sector – airlines, tour operators, hotels, ACCOR, Air France, Amadeus, Kuoni Travel, Mintel Research UK, Rainforest Alliance, US Travel Association, Japan Association Travel Agents, China International Travel Service
educational institutions- Washington University, Hong Kong Polytech, University of Brasilia
tourism associations -
local tourism authorities - Egyptian Tourism Authority,

5. TOURISM is… one of the world’s top job creators
First of all, tourism and travel is one of the world’s biggest sources of jobs, especially in the emerging and developing economies which currently receive 47 % of worldwide international tourist’s arrivals. Tourism is also one of the main export sectors of developing countries, and is the primary source of foreign exchange earnings in 46 of the 49 Least Developed Countries.
Generally tourism has a great share of worldwide service exports that is counted to be up to 30 %.
In addition, there are tax revenues. Tourists can provide a lucrative taxation base. Measures such as departure taxes, excise on food, alcohol and luxury items, can provide the government with much needed revenue. They bring in foreign exchange using their credit cards and travellers' cheques. This in turn replaces the loss of domestic currency.
Moreover, tourism really plays an important role while developing the weak regions by creating jobs, promoting trade, enhancing development in that way helping certain destinations to gain competitive edge. Thereby, it helps to redistribute the wealth between countries and within countries.
Tourism not only creates jobs in the tertiary sector, it also encourages growth in the primary and secondary sectors of industry by causing Multiplier effect.
Offers fast entry into the workforce,
- offers fast entry into the workforce, particulary for youth and women in urban and rural communities
The leafing export sector , specially in developing countries
- 30% of world services of export(1 trillón dollars, US per year)
Up to 45% general expert of cervices in developing countries
5% GDP
The key for incentive and transition to a green economy
Direct contribution as well as, the contribution trough multiplier effect of reating jobs in the world and restablishment of economy
With relatively low CO2(15%) emissions tourism is not only capable of and strives for gradual lowering of its emissions, but is committed to support the transfer to green economy
one of the world’s top job creators
…providing 75 million direct jobs worldwide

6. E-library - www.e-unwto.org
Statistical data and forecasts
For countries and territories
Market research
Market characteristics (outbound)
Overall market conditions (budgets, demographic change)
Specific segments (religious, youth, sports)
Guidelines on new and relevant subject areas
Best practices from a regional and global level
Generic guidelines and templates
E-library -
More than:
1000 publications
7500 documents
900 data sets regularly updated

7. Tourism towards 2030 / Global Overview
A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.
Objectives:
Assisting UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans;
Providing a global reference on tourism future development;
Reinforcing UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects;
Constituting a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities.
Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades
Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as key indicator, with as dimensions subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period
The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and cost of transport

8. Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend
World
940 mn
881 mn
528 mn
In October 2011, following three years of intensive research, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) launched on the occasion of its 19th General Assembly, a major report on the main trends for the next two decades. This study “Tourism Towards 2030” is an in-depth study into future tourism trends.
The objectives
Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans
Provide a global reference on tourism future development
Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects
Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 8

9. International tourist arrivals to reach
1.8 billion by 2030
1.8 bn
1.4 bn
1 bn
International tourist arrivals will reach 1.8 billion by 2030
UNWTO’s new long-term forecast, Tourism Towards 2030, showed that international tourism is set to reach 1.8 billion travellers by 2030.
International tourist arrivals - at 940 million in will exceed 1 billion in 2012, reach close to 1.4 billion in 2020 and extend to 1.8 billion by 2030. 9

10. International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average
This is a growth of 3.3% a year - lower than the 4% registered during the last decade, but still meaning that 43 million more tourists will be entering the market every year on average within the next 20 years. 10

11. Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015
Over the next two decades, growth will come at different speeds for different regions. International arrivals to emerging economy destinations are expected to grow at double the rate of advanced economy ones (+4.4% compared to +2.2%). In absolute terms, emerging economies will add on average 30 million arrivals a year, compared to 14 million by advanced economies.
From 2015, emerging economies will, for the first time, receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies, surpassing 1 billion arrivals by 2030.
While in 1980, 70% of international arrivals were recorded in the destinations of the advanced, industrialized and diversified economies of North Africa, Europe, and Asia and the Pacific, in 2030, 58% will arrive to the emerging economy destinations of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa. 11

12. Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
International tourist arrivals to Asia and the Pacific are expected to increase from 204 million in 2010 to 535 million in 2030, an increase of 331 million. The Middle East will more than double its arrivals (from 61 million to 149 million), as will Africa (50 million to 134 million).
Europe (from 475 million to 744 million) and the Americas (from 150 million to 248 million) will grow comparatively less. Europe, however, will continue to lead in terms of the number of international arrivals received in relation to population size. 12

13. Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
1980 (277 mn)
2010 (940 mn)
2030 (1.8 bn)
As a consequence, there will be increases in the global market shares of Asia and the Pacific (from 22% in 2010 to 30% in 2030), the Middle East (from 6% to 8%) and Africa (from 5% to 7%), and further declines in the shares of Europe (from 51% to 41%) and the Americas (from 16% to 14%), mostly due to the slower growth of North America, Northern Europe and Western Europe.
South Asia will be the fastest growing sub-region in relative terms (+6% a year), but from a low base. West and Central Africa (+5.9% a year), East Africa (+5.8% a year) and Central America (+5.2% a year) also show fast growth. 13

14. Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 100 of population
Europe will continue to be the largest outbound market in the world with 832 arrivals generating from European source markets, followed by Asia and the Pacific (581 million), the Americas (264 million), Africa (90 million) and the Middle East (81 million).
The large majority of arrivals in 2030 will continue to originate from within the same region. Of the 1.8 billion international tourists in 2030, 1.4 billion (78%) will originate from the same region, while the remaining 4 million (22%) will come from other regions. 14

15. North-East Asia will be the most visited
subregion in 2030
In absolute numbers, Northeast Asia will be the fastest growing sub-region, adding almost 9 million arrivals a year. By 2030, Northeast Asia will be the most visited sub-region in the world, with 293 million arrivals, representing 16% of total arrivals.
As a result, tourism shares worldwide will shift significantly. The traditional concentration of international tourist arrivals in a relatively few destinations will be further reduced and arrivals will be more evenly spread across the world. 15

16. Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most
By 2030, Asia and the Pacific will generate 581 million outbound tourists. 16

17. Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region
The large majority of arrivals in 2030 will continue to originate from within the same region. Of the 1.8 billion international tourists in 2030, 1.4 billion (78%) will originate from the same region, while the remaining 4 million (22%) will come from other regions. 17

18. Air transport will continue to increase
market share, but at a slower pace
In terms of means of transport, forecasts indicate that over half of all international tourist arrivals will arrive by air in 2030, as air transport is expected to grow slightly faster than surface transport (road, rail, water) between 2010 and By 2030, 51% of international arrivals are expected to arrive by air versus 49% over the surface. 18

19. No major change in share by purpose of visit19

20. Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate pace
Implications of the twenty-year journey to 1.8 billion tourists 
Tourism is quite simply one of the most extraordinary phenomena of our time.
The growth of the sector, from a mere 25 million tourists in 1950 to 940 million in 2010, has been spectacular and has brought with it hundreds of millions of jobs, billions of dollars in tourism revenue, roads and basic service in some of the world’s poorest and most isolated areas, as well as connecting our world in ways previously unimaginable. It allows countries to diversify their economies, has a significant spillover effect on other sectors of the economy and attracts valuable know-how and investment. As such, tourism has become one of the most promising and viable paths for economic growth and development for many countries.
Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still significant potential for further growth in the sector over the coming decades, in established as well as new destinations. Provided destinations shape the appropriate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, travel facilitation, marketing and human resources, they will continue to reap the benefits of tourism for years to come. 20

21. Tourism towards 2030 / Global Overview Cruise tourism
To catch the opportunity
Cruise tourism
Nevertheless, alongside this opportunity, come significant challenges in terms of maximizing tourism’s social and economic benefits while minimizing possible negative impacts. As such, it is more important than ever that all tourism development be guided by the principles of sustainable development. Priority must be given to ensuring that tourism is developed in a way that makes optimal use of environmental resources, respects the socio-cultural authenticity of host countries, and provides socio-economic benefits to all stakeholders.
Mainstream tourism
Keep the tracking of counsumer
Susteinability the key word
Sinergies between public snd private steckholders
In spite of the short term challenges, the next two decades provide excellent opportunities for the sector to consolidate its growth.

22. Cruise tourism as an opportunity
Cruise Tourism is one of the major growth areas of world tourism
The Caspian Sea has a long standing maritime tradition
Caspian Sea cruise industry
could become a powerful vector for tourism for the region
Cruise Tourism is one of the major growth areas of world tourism
Caspian Sea cruise industry could develop to become a powerful vector for tourism for the region
A well developed cruise tourism industry around the Caspian Sea could be a dynamic source of economic activity benefits to all industries and countries throughout the region
The Caspian Sea has a long standing maritime tradition
Ports and communities in around the Caspian Sea have a proud sense of hospitality for sea-passengers and the increasing number of guests travelling on cruise ships
Speacial nature of the Caspian Sea: weather conditions, deapness, locked sea nature
Contribution of Cruise tourism to the economies, an example of Europe,
In 2010, cruise industry direct expenditures increased by 3% from 2009 to billion
generated €35.2 billion of goods and services and accounted for almost 5.5 million passengers
Of these 1.2 million were non-European passengers who embarked from European ports.
Each of these passengers spent an average of almost 100 euro visiting a European port and there are 25million passenger port visits per year
jobs created
UNWTO wants the cruise sector to continue to grow sustainably, provide quality jobs and of course an unforgettable experience for cruise passengers.

23. Cruise tourism as an opportunity
Contribution of Cruise tourism to the economies, an example of Europe:
In 2010, cruise industry direct expenditures increased by 3% from 2009 to €billion
generated €35.2 billion of goods and services and accounted for almost 5.5 million passengers
Of these 1.2 million were non-European passengers who embarked from European ports
Each of these passengers spent an average of almost 100 euro visiting a European port and there are 25million passenger port visits per year
jobs created
Los 2,3 millones de cruceristas que el año pasado llegaron al Puerto de Barcelona gastaron en la ciudad casi 260 millones de euros, según explicó ayer el presidente, Sixte Cambra, que, además, destacó que este año llegarán a Barcelona un 7 por ciento más de pasajeros y habrá un 6 por ciento más de escalas de cruceros. Cambra, además,señaló que en la última década Barcelona ha pasado de la décima a la cuarta  posición en tráfico de cruceros del mundo, por detrás de los puertos de Florida: Miami, Port Everglades y Port Canaveral.

24. Strengths of Cruise Tourism
Multidestination
Permanent Hotel
All-inclusive
Versatile
Adaptability
Comfort
Safety
Multidestination: One of the arguments most attractive to sell a cruise is the opportunity to visit more than one place and meet different cultures in one trip and at any time of year.
Permanent Hotel: Throughout the trip the hotel is permanent, so the passenger does not need to be doing and undoing his luggage to travel to another destination. Besides the ship sails during sleep, thereby buying time.
All-inclusive cruise is not cheap, but the fact that all or almost all services offered on board are included in the price (except extras such as beverages, gifts, excursions), makes it one of the most even profitable customers.
Versatile: the cruiser incorporates a great number of attractions: relaxation, fun, adventure, culture, entertainment, shopping game, meeting people...
Adaptability: although the average age of the cruise passenger was over 50 years, the average is going down in recent years.
Comfort: The customer only has to watch to get to port before the ship sails. The tour schedule is determined.
Safety: accidents are very rare.

25. Types of cruises Small: fewer than 500 passengers
-friendly, exclusive and high class
Medium: between 500 and 1000 passengers
-mostly designed for European and ports
Large: more than 1000 passengers
-ideal for family vacations,
Theme cruise
Cruise companies
Congresses, conventions, courses on board
Here we can distinguish three types of cruises: small (fewer than 500 passengers), medium (between 500 and 1000 passengers) and large (more than 1000 passengers).
Small capacity cruise ships are suitable for those seeking a more personal, friendly, exclusive and high class service. Usually travel through places or seas where wilderness abounds and adventure. They have some disadvantages such as difficulty in navigation at sea, the weather, and the small space devoted to the booths and activities on board. Medium capacity cruises are an ideal size for Mediterranean ports. They can navigate in bad weather and have a wide range of leisure and entertainment. On the other hand, large capacity cruise ships are more focused on fun. They offer activities 24 hours a day. Due to their size, they are ideal for family vacations and kids of all ages. This type of cruise has some negative aspects, as well. They provide less specialized services, less time in the outings and possible overcrowding.
Theme Cruise: Following the general trend in the tourism sector to the theming, the subsector has expanded its offering cruises, creating new focus on the performance of an activity, which is the link between all passengers. The topics can range from music to sports like golf, through the ballroom and meeting singles.
Cruise companies: This type of cruise is organized by large companies in order to encourage their employees.
Congresses, conventions and courses on board: This is one of the latest news on cruise ships. In this way, the traditional location of such events aboard a cruise ship changes. For this, the ships are equipped with conference rooms, secretaries, translators, etc… However, there is a much higher cost than a conventional conference. It provides a great future for this type of event.

26. POTENTIAL OF CRUISE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CASPIAN SEA
Tourism is a fast growing activity in the Caspian region
The Caspian Sea shore and its surrounding regions are very rich in diverse cultural and natural assets that provides for the core stones for the creation of unique tourism products
The Caspian Sea recognized as having significant potential as a tourism destination
unique range of tourism products :
nature, cultural and historical heritage
emerging products such as sports and health facilities
cruise tourism

27. Pre-feasibility Study on Potential of Cruise Tourism Development in the Caspian Sea
Background
Federal Agency for Tourism of the Russian Federation is keen to further develop this specific segment
UNWTO fully supports the project
Regional approach
UNWTO expert mission : 27 November 2011 – 11 December 2011
Background
An official request for an assessment on the potential of cruise tourism was received in May 2010 by the Federal Agency for Tourism of the Russian Federation
To ensure a regional approach in this context Azerbaijan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been officially invited also to join the project
UNWTO expert mission was carried out in the territory of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan
27 November 2011 – 11 December 2011
Objective of the mission
To undertake a comprehensive review and evaluation of existing cruise tourism as a tourism activity in the Caspian Sea in collaboration with national officials and provide a strategy for its development through a regional approach
The mission
UNWTO expert mission was carried out in the territory of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan 27 November 2011 – 11 December 2011

28. www.unwto.org Contac detailes: Isabel Garaña, Regional Director, UNWTO
Tel: