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1 US Lodging Industry Overview and State and Market Overview The SHARE Center Supporting Hotel-related Academic Research and Education
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2 Agenda Total US Update US Drill Down Booking Channel Update Sample State Overview - Tennessee Sample Market Overview - Nashville Projections
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3 Total US Review
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4 Europe 2009 2010 2011 2012 -6.0% 5.4% 3.0% 0.8% Middle East & Africa 2009 2010 2011 2012 -12.3% 0.3% -7.0% 9.0% Asia Pacific 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.7% 9.3% 0.1% 2.5% South America 2009 2010 2011 2012 -7.0% 9.4% 2.3% -1.8 North America 2009 2010 2011 2012 -8.8% 5.5% 4.2% 3.0% Occupancy rebounded from 2009, still growing in most regions Central America 2009 2010 2011 2012 -16.7% 6.6% 1.2% -0.5% Caribbean 2009 2010 2011 2012 -4.6% -2.1 4.4% 3.8% Global Occupancy Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinents Annual 2009, 2010 & 2011 & April YTD 2012
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5 Europe $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -16.9% -2.1% 9.3% -2.8% Middle East & Africa $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -3.1% 2.1% 5.3% -0.8% Asia Pacific $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -14.7% 9.1% 9.3% 4.4% South America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.3% 8.6% 16.4% 6.7% North America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -8.9% 0.6% 3.7% 3.9% ADR growth improving - some areas of the world slower than others Central America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -6.3% -0.8% -0.6% 1.4% Caribbean $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -12.9% 4.3% 3.2% 4.8% Global ADR Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinents Annual 2009, 2010 & 2011 & April YTD 2012
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6 Europe $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -21.8% 3.0% 12.5% -2.0% Middle East & Africa $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -14.9% 2.6% -2.1% 8.0% Asia Pacific $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -19.8% 18.5% 9.4% 6.9% South America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -12.0% 18.8% 19.1% 4.8% North America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -16.9% 6.0% 8.1% 7.1% RevPAR strong in most areas Central America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -21.9% 5.4% 0.5% 0.9% Caribbean $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -16.8% 2.1% 7.6% 8.8% Global RevPAR Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinents Annual 2009, 2010, 2011, & April YTD 2012
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7 2011: The World Recovered Number of Markets with Positive REVPAR Percent Changes: Americas: 194 of 212 Europe: 84 of 98 AsiaPac: 38 of 47 Middle East / Africa 19 of 33 *RevPAR in local currency Source: STR Global
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8 Most Major Global Markets Did Well *2011 % Change, ADR & RevPAR in local currency Source: STR Global MarketOCCADRRevPAR Beijing8.25.814.6 Berlin0.9-2.0-1.1 Dubai7.03.410.7 Hong Kong2.423.126.0 London-0.18.58.4 Mexico City7.92.910.9 Moscow2.75.48.3 Sao Paulo2.917.721.1 Sydney-0.15.25.1 Tokyo-8.5-6.7-14.7 Toronto-0.60.60.0
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9 Total US - Key Statistics December YTD 2011 Value % Change Hotels 52,300 Supply 1.8 B 0.6% Demand 1.1 B 5.0% Room Revenue $107.6 B 8.8% Occupancy 60.1% 4.4% ADR $101.64 3.7% RevPAR $61.06 8.2% All percent changes are positive, record demand numbers and low supply %chg
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10 Total US - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Occupancy back to 2008 level, ADR ½ way, RevPAR ⅔ way
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11 Total US - Key Performance Percent Change Indicators Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Big Demand & Occ turn around; ADR negative in 2010, but positive in 2011
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12 2010 saw strongest Demand increase in history and sharp Supply decrease Supply: 3.0% (Sep 09) 0.4% (Apr 12) Demand: -7.0% (Aug 09) 7.8% (Feb 11) 4.1% (Apr 11) -0.9% - 4.6% Total US - Supply and Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average, January 1989 to April 2012
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13 Total US - Actual Monthly Room Supply Millions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011 Supply has levelled off, for the first time since 2004
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14 Total US - Actual Monthly Room Demand Millions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011 Demand at record high level for most of 2011!
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15 Total US - Closed Hotels Annual 2004 through 2011 65,242 rooms in 2005 to 14,265 rooms in 2010 Huge decrease in closed hotels leading up to 2010, small resurge in 2011
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16 Total US - Opened Hotels Annual 2004 through 2011 153,623 rooms in 2008 38,667 rooms in 2010 Continued decrease in new development in 2011 Significant drop in number of new opens in 2010 and 2011
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17 Total US – Monthly Supply Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close up” of monthly Supply percent changes for last couple of years
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18 Total US – Monthly Demand Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close up” of monthly Demand % changes, positive for most of 2010 & 11
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19 Occupancy leveling, ADR returning, very different recovery than 2002! - 3.4 % - 6.7 % Occupancy: -9.7% (Sep 09) 6.3% (Apr 11) 4.5% (Dec 11) ADR: -8.9% (Jan 10) 3.7% (Dec 11) - 4.5 % 0.0 % Total US – Occupancy and ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average, Jan 1989 to Dec 2011
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20 Total US - Occupancy & ADR Actual Values Twelve Month Moving Average – January 1997 to April 2012 Major challenge for the industry – making up the lost ADR!
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21 ADR Discounting at Twice the Speed of ADR Recovery Total US Actual ADR, 12 Month Moving Average, 2008 - 2011 Apr ‘10 $97 Sept ‘08 $108 Dec ‘11 $102 +4.6% -10% 19 Months
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22 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total US Actual ADRs and Inflation Adjusted ADR, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators $85 $101 $104 $85 $107$109 $107 $117 Inflation Adjusted ADRs Currently Well Out Of Reach 2007 ADR Grown By CPI
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23 Total US - Monthly Occupancy Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close-up” of monthly Occupancy % Change – strongly positive for 2010 & 11
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24 Total US - Monthly ADR Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close-up” of ADR % Change – positive (gradually) since middle of 2010
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25 $54.86 Nov 2000 $55.38 Feb 2005 Total US - Actual Monthly RevPAR Seasonally Adjusted, January 1998 to December 2011 RevPAR recovery looks better than ADR recovery
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26 Total US - Monthly RevPAR Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011 “Close-up” of RevPAR % Change – positive since middle of 2010
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27 Total US – Post-Recession Demand Percent Change 12 Month Moving Average - From Start of Recession, by Month Three very different economic cycles
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28 Total US – 2011 HOST (Hotel Operating Stats/P&L) Update
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29 Total US - Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability Annual Numbers from 2001 to 2010 Total Revenue and Profit in Billions
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30 US Drill Down (Scales, Locations, Regions, Top Markets, Group/Transient, Weekday/Weekend) Scales
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31 Changes to STR Scales in 2011 Luxury – W Hotel, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, Waldorf, Intercontinental, JW Marriott Upper Upscale – Sheraton, Hyatt, Hilton, Marriott, Westin, Renaissance Upscale – Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Aloft, Indigo, Radisson, Wyndham Upper Midscale - Holiday Inn, Hampton Inn, Fairfield Inn, BW Plus Midscale – LaQuinta, Wingate, Sleep Inn, BW, Quality Inn, Ramada Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn, Motel 6, Super 8 Changed to Upper Mid and Midscale from Midscale with and w/o F&B (Also Best Western started converting their hotels to Plus and Premium)
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32 Historic Scales – Supply Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 High 2009 & 2010 supply growth in Luxury and Upscale groups; 2011 Upper Mid and Midscale numbers affected by BW conversion
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33 Historic Scales – Demand Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Largest 2010 Demand recovery at upper end
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34 Historic Scales – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 2009 dropped most at lower end, 2010 recovered most at the upper end
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35 Historic Scales – ADR Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Upper end impacted most in 2009, Luxury only positive in 2010
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36 2011 Update - Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue Supply and Demand Percent Change, by Scale, Annual 2011 Midscale Supply Change Caused by Best Western Re-classification
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37 2011 Update - Early Recovery, Occupancy % Chg > ADR % Chg Occupancy and ADR Percent Change by Scale, Annual 2011
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38 2011 Update - Upper End Sells 7 out 10 Rooms Every Night Absolute Occupancy by Scale, Annual 2007 & 2011
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39 2011 Update - Demand Recovery Strongest At Upper End Total Room Demand in Millions, by Combined Scales, Annual 2007 & 2011
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40 No Surprise Here: Room Revenue Grows At Upper End As Well Total Room Revenue in Billions $, by Combined Scales, Annual 2007 & 2011
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41 ADR Growth Is Strong – But Not Strong Enough (...yet) Absolute ADR $, by Scale, Annual 2007 & 2011
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42 Recent ADR Compression by Scale : Threat or Opportunity? US Chain Scales, Actual ADRs, Peak (2008) vs. Valley (2009-10) 2008-03 2008-04 2008-03 2008-08 2009-07 2009-082009-12 2010-01 Compression especially at top end, differences narrowed, trade-up easier
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43 US Drill Down - Locations, Regions, Markets
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44 Locations – Supply Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Highest 2009 peaks in Suburban and Interstate
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45 Locations – Demand Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Urban, Suburban, and Airport big winners in 2010
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46 Locations – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Highest 2010 occupancy in Urban, Suburban, and Airport
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47 Locations – ADR Percent Change Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Urban and Resort down most in 2009 and up most in 2011
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48 US Regions – Occupancy, ADR, & RevPAR Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy: 4.6 % ADR: 5.5 % RevPAR: 10.3 % Occupancy: 4.9 % ADR: 3.3 % RevPAR: 8.4 % Occupancy: 2.5 % ADR: 3.8 % RevPAR: 6.5 % Occupancy: 5.6 % ADR: 2.8 % RevPAR: 8.5 % Occupancy: 5.0 % ADR: 3.2 % RevPAR: 8.4 % Occupancy: 3.0 % ADR: 2.7 % RevPAR: 5.7 % Occupancy: 4.2 % ADR: 2.7 % RevPAR: 7.0 % Occupancy: 3.6 % ADR: 4.4 % RevPAR: 8.1 % Occupancy: 5.1 % ADR: 3.2 % RevPAR: 8.6 % TOTAL US Occupancy: 4.3 % ADR: 3.7 % RevPAR: 8.2 % 2011 – positive Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR for all regions
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49 Regions – Supply Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010 and 2011 Largest supply numbers in regions with big cities
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50 Regions – Demand Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010 and 2011 2010 recovery largest in regions with big cities
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51 Regions – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010 and 2011 2010 recovery largest in regions with big cities
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52 Regions – ADR Percent Change Annual 2009, 2010, and 2011 Regions on coasts affected the most in 2009, recovered the most
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53 Top 25 Markets - Supply Percent Change, Annual 2011
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54 Top 25 Markets - Demand Percent Change, Annual 2011
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55 Top 25 Markets - Occupancy Percent Change, Annual 2011
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56 Top 25 Markets - ADR Percent Change, Annual 2011
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57 2011 Update for “5/20/All” Markets – Demand Exceeds 2007 Three groups: Five Select Markets, Remaining Top 25 Markets, and All Others Room Demand in Millions; Annual 2007, 2009, 2011
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58 2011 Update for “5/20/All” Markets - 2007 ADRs Still Elusive Three different Market groups; Actual ADR $; Annual 2007, 2009, & 2011
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59 US Drill Down – Group/Transient, Day of Week, and Weekday/Weekend
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60 Transient Occupancy breaks records … Total US Monthly Transient Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011 Group & Transient Data for mainly Upper Tier hotels (Lux, Upper Up, top ⅓ indeps)
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61 But Transient ADR is not Total US Monthly Transient ADR – January 2007 to December 2011 Above 2009 & 2010 levels, but not above 2007 & 2008
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62 Group Occupancy above 2010, but below 2007 levels Total US Monthly Group Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011 Above 2009 & 2010 levels, closing in on 2007 & 2008 levels
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63 Group ADR improving, but below 2007 & 2008 levels Total US Monthly Group ADR – January 2007 to December 2011 Above 2009 & 2010 levels, still below 2007 & 2008
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64 Transient ADR Growth (Hopefully) Will Aid Group ADR in 2012? Transient versus Group ADR, Annual 2007 through 2011 No surprise Group ADRs tend to follow behind Transient ADRs
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65 Total US – Occupancy by Day of Week Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 2011 Occ above 2008 level on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, 1 off on weekdays
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66 Total US - ADR by Day of Week Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Day of Week 2011 vs. 2008 ADR diffs: weekdays - $6-7, weekends - $4
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67 Booking Channel Highlights
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68 Booking Channel Foundations Data Nights sold and revenue per property per month from Jan 2009 to YTD 2011 Participation 25,500 US & WW chain & independent hotels, All major players Booking ChannelsBrand.com, CRS/Voice, GDS, OTA, Property Direct/Other OTAs Booking.com, Expedia, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Orbitz, Priceline, Travelocity, Travelweb, All others Business Models Merchant (Expedia), Opaque (Priceline), Retail (Booking.com)
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69 Demand Share by Channel for Total US Annual 2009 & 2010 (Percent of Total Room Nights) Small YOY increases in OTA, Brand.com, GDS Small YOY decreases in CRS/Voice, Prop Direct/Other
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70 Revenue Share by Channel for Total US Annual 2009 vs. 2010 (Percent of Total Room Revenue) Slight variation between Revenue Share and Demand Share percentages due to channel profitability and revenue contribution of different scale hotels
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71 OTA Room Revenue Share for Total US Annual 2001 -2011*, OTA Revenue as Percent of Total Revenue *2011 projected; growth periods: 2001-2003, 2008-2010, and 2011; Revenue share never goes down Source: PhocusWright, Smith Travel Research
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72 Revenue Growth for Total US & OTAs Annual 2002 -2011* (YOY % Change of Total Revenue and OTA Revenue) *2011 projected, ** 2002 and 2003 values off the chart (100% and 63.6 %) OTA Revenue Percent Change never was negative, unlike hotel industry
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73 OTA Demand & Revenue Share for Total US YTD June 2009, 2010 and 2011 (Percent of Total by OTA Business Models) Total OTA Share = Merchant + Retail + Opaque; all models up, retail faster
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74 ADR by Channel for Total US Annual 2009 & 2010 (in Dollars) Costs included in certain channels, Merchant & Opaque are net
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75 OTA Demand Share by Scale for Total US YTD June 2009, 2010 and 2011 OTA share decreased in upper scales, increased in lower scales, esp. Econ.
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76 Top 15 Markets by OTA Percent of Total Demand Annual 2010, Combined OTA Demand compared to Total Demand OTA percent higher in large leisure and group destinations
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77 Sample State Overview - Tennessee The following slides provide an example of a Hotel Industry Overview for a typical state
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78 State of Tennessee - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2011 Values (also rank among 50 states & DC) % Change Number of Hotels 1,404 (9) Number of Rooms 119,937 (12) Room Supply 43,870,265 1.0% (11) Room Demand 24,695,345 (12) 6.3% (9) Occupancy 56.3% (33) 5.2% (12) Average Daily Rate $79.43 (38) 4.3% (10) RevPAR $44.71 (34) 9.7% (10) Room Revenue$196 million (18) 10.9% (7) Ranked #9 in Number of Hotels, Ranked in top 10 in Demand, ADR, RevPAR, and Revenue % Change
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79 Comparable States – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Tennessee has highest Occupancy % Change among bordering states
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80 Comparable States– ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Tennessee has highest ADR % Change among comparable states as well
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81 Tennessee by Market – Property & Room Count MarketMarket CodeCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Knoxville, TN47010034330,12817517,182 Memphis, TN-AR-MS47020024022,22316016,943 Nashville, TN47030031735,80823730,369 Tennessee Area47040050729,87726619,283 Chattanooga, TN-GA4705001099,341827,522
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82 Tennessee Markets - Room Supply Percent Change Annual 2011 Supply increase in Nashville due to 2010 flood
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83 Tennessee Markets – Demand Percent Change Annual 2011 Demand increase in Nashville related to 2010 flood
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84 Tennessee Markets – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy % changes consistent, Nashville strongest
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85 Tennessee Markets – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Wide disparity between markets
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86 Tennessee by Market and Tract MarketMarketCodeTractTractCodeCensusPropsCensusRoomsSamplePropsSampleRooms Knoxville, TN470100Knoxville470101868,198666,970 Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge47010219317,755717,220 Knoxville TN Area470103644,175382,992 Memphis, TN-AR-MS470200Memphis470201384,278203,363 Memphis Airport & South470202464,504192,303 Memphis East470203969,283787,952 Memphis West470204241,529141,148 Nashville, TN470300Nashville Downtown470301407,087397,053 Nashville Airport4703026711,1565510,133 Nashville I-65 North470303524,094292,691 I-24/Murfreesboro470304595,140423,791 Brentwood/Franklin470305374,252344,090 Nashville Other Areas470306624,079382,611 Tennessee Area470400Clarksville MSA, TN470401362,472241,810 Bristol-Kingsport MSA470402604,697403,561 Tennessee East Area4704031498,014734,748 Tennessee Central Area4704041065,751493,351 Tennessee West Area4704051146,105533,578 Chattanooga, TN-GA470500Chattanooga470501384,113243,095 Chattanooga Area470502594,671514,094
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87 Tennessee Select Tracts – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Largest Occupancy % changes in Knoxville (business) and Clarksville (military)
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88 Tennessee Select Tracts – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Wide disparity between tracts, 3 low and 4 higher
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89 Tennessee by County (counties with 10 or more hotels) CountyCounty CodeCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Anderson County, TN47001191,238141,058 Blount County, TN47009291,992121,168 Bradley County, TN47011281,51111717 Cocke County, TN47029106397492 Coffee County, TN47031201,31313990 Cumberland County, TN47035116418521 Davidson County, TN4703718224,67313621,292 Dickson County, TN47043138209501 Dyer County, TN47045115697415 Hamblen County, TN47063127899686 Hamilton County, TN47065928,402726,995 Hardin County, TN47071104493132 Jefferson County, TN47089115646392 Knox County, TN47093918,511707,259 Loudon County, TN47105116328477 McMinn County, TN47107126637425 Madison County, TN47113292,457222,027 Maury County, TN47119137297416 Monroe County, TN47123106594218 Montgomery County, TN47125362,472241,810 Putnam County, TN47141201,434131,042 Roane County, TN47145115198434 Robertson County, TN47147116866366 Rutherford County, TN47149433,583332,864 Sevier County, TN4715519317,755717,220 Shelby County, TN4715717217,71011213,368 Sullivan County, TN47163262,186171,586 Sumner County, TN47165106587573 Washington County, TN47179231,970171,665 Williamson County, TN47187343,784303,594 Wilson County, TN47189201,485151,135
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90 Tennessee Counties – Occupancy % Chg, Annual 2011 Most positive, 4 in double digits, 5 in 5-10 range, 5 in 0-5 range, 3 flat or negative
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91 Tennessee Counties – ADR % Chg, Annual 2011 Most positive in the 0-5 range, 2 in 5-10 range, 2 flat or negative
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92 Tennessee by Physical City (cities with 10 or more hotels) CityCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Nashville14321,26011018,890 Memphis14015,1868811,258 Pigeon Forge869,076293,346 Knoxville868,198666,970 Chattanooga817,548636,283 Gatlinburg766,036212,138 Murfreesboro312,731222,046 Clarksville362,472241,810 Jackson282,417222,027 Franklin192,195172,090 Brentwood182,057172,000 Johnson City221,910161,605 Sevierville211,901121,022 Kingsport201,733121,167 Cleveland281,51111717 Cookeville191,38412992 Alcoa151,295111,114 Goodlettsville161,23712957 Lebanon161,13811788 Manchester149939736 Morristown127899686 Kodak107429714 Dickson126969501 Millington116805314 Columbia116576364 Crossville116418521 Newport106397492 Dyersburg115697415
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93 Additional State Data – lots of possibilities Compare Actual Occupancy or ADR values State by Location or Scale - Prop/Room Count & Graph State by Brand - Prop/Room Count Physical Cities – Graph (more than markets & tracts) Historic Supply, Demand, Occupancy & ADR vs. US Group/Transient or Day of Week data - Graph Pipeline Stats: opens, closes, hotels under construction, & projects in planning
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94 Sample Market Overview - Nashville The following slides provide an example of a Hotel Industry Overview for a typical city or market
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95 Market of Nashville - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2011 Values (also rank among 162 US markets) % Change Number of Hotels 316 (66) Number of Rooms 35,712 (43) Room Supply 12,929,657 4.2% (2) Room Demand 8,036,641 (36) 11.3% (6) Occupancy 62.2% (42) 7.1% (27) Average Daily Rate $93.33 (62) 7.4% (8) RevPAR $58.01 (52) 14.8% (7) Room Revenue $75 million (36) 19.6% (3) Ranked #2 in Supply % Change related to flood in 2010, Ranked in top 10 in Demand, ADR, RevPAR, and Revenue % Change
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96 Comparable Markets – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Nashville 3 rd highest Occupancy % Change among similar cities
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97 Comparable Markets – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Nashville has highest ADR % Change among comparable markets
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98 Nashville Market by Tract – Property & Room Count TractCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Brentwood/Franklin374,252344,090 I-24/Murfreesboro595,140423,791 Nashville Airport6711,1565510,133 Nashville Downtown407,087397,053 Nashville I-65 North524,094292,691 Nashville Other Areas624,079382,611
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99 Nashville Market Map
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100 Nashville Tracts - Room Supply Percent Change Annual 2011 Supply increase in Nashville Airport Tract due to 2010 flood
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101 Nashville Tracts – Demand Percent Change Annual 2011 Demand strong, increase in Airport tract related to 2010 flood
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102 Nashville Tracts – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Downtown and North less than other (Suburb & South) tracts
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103 Nashville Tracts – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Varied: Downtown strong, Airport related to flood, Murfreesboro negative?
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104 Nashville Market by City (all cities) CityCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Nashville14321,26011018,890 Murfreesboro312,731222,046 Franklin192,195172,090 Brentwood182,057172,000 Goodlettsville161,23712957 Lebanon161,13811788 Antioch87406562 Dickson126969501 Smyrna96848650 Hermitage54522188 White House53644247 Mount Juliet43474 Hendersonville43393312 Gallatin52964261 Madison323200 Springfield3189159 La Vergne31683 Portland3133160 Burns112400 Joelton11161 Kingston Springs392144 Fairview28500 Whites Creek1831 Ashland City12700 Greenbrier12300
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105 Nashville Market by Scale – Property & Room Count ScaleCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Luxury Chains13401 Upper Upscale Chains157,420157,420 Upscale Chains334,851334,851 Upper Midscale Chains717,126717,126 Midscale Chains464,085443,907 Economy Chains837,282696,026 Independents684,7044699
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106 Nashville Market by Brand (brands w/ 500 rooms or more) ChainCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Gaylord Entertainment12,8841 Holiday Inn Express151,668151,668 Hampton Inn & Suites101,140101,140 Days Inn131,054131,054 Courtyard71,0487 Embassy Suites41,0374 Marriott39993 Sheraton Hotel28822 Best Western1085810858 Comfort Inn1078510785 Super 81175711757 Americas Best Value Inn97481120 Hampton Inn87028 Holiday Inn26802 Renaissance16731 DoubleTree36433 Quality Inn86218 Comfort Suites86038 La Quinta Inns & Suites55835 Country Inn & Suites85558 Hyatt Place55545 Hilton Garden Inn45474 Hilton25332 Ramada65296 Red Roof Inn55005
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107 Nashville by Scale – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy % changes strongest at opposite ends
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108 Nashville by Scale – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Total includes Luxury and Independents, large proportion of Upper Up
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109 Nashville Market by Class – little different than Scale ClassCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Luxury Class37093 Upper Upscale Class157,420157,420 Upscale Class334,851334,851 Upper Midscale Class727,264717,126 Midscale Class494,418454,103 Economy Class14511,146706,160 Independents are combined with chain hotels at similar price level
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110 Nashville Market by Location – Property & Room Count LocationCensus PropsCensus RoomsSample PropsSample Rooms Urban598,464417,462 Suburban14713,02710910,599 Airport668,539567,437 Interstate412,761291,927 Resort Small Metro/Town Not enough hotels in Resort or Small Metro/Town categories
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111 Nashville by Location – Occupancy Percent Change Annual 2011 Occupancy % changes strongest in non-urban locations
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112 Nashville by Location – ADR Percent Change Annual 2011 Urban has strongest ADR growth, Total includes other hotels
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113 Nashville Pipeline Data – Recent Opens and Closes StageBrandCityRooms Open Date Date Closed ClosedKnights InnNashville220Nov-70Jul-10 OpenCourtyardGoodlettsville120Jan-10 OpenHotel IndigoNashville97Mar-10 OpenLa Quinta Inns & SuitesSmyrna76Jun-10 OpenComfort SuitesMount Juliet73Jul-10 OpenCandlewood SuitesMurfreesboro85Oct-10 OpenTownePlace SuitesNashville101Jan-12
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114 Nashville Pipeline – Hotels Under Construction & In Planning StageBrandCityRooms Anticipated Open Date Under ConstructionDrury Plaza HotelFranklin344Mar-12 Under ConstructionHome2 SuitesNashville119Jun-12 Under ConstructionTownePlace SuitesFranklin125Nov-13 Under ConstructionOmniNashville800Dec-13 Final PlanningLa Quinta Inns & SuitesLebanon72Oct-12 Final PlanningCandlewood SuitesSmyrna88Nov-12 Final PlanningHoliday InnFranklin130Feb-13 Final PlanningResidence InnNashville150May-13 Final PlanningSpringhill SuitesNashville103May-13 Final PlanningHomewood SuitesNashville192Jul-13 Final PlanningHyatt PlaceNashville255 n/a PlanningCandlewood SuitesLebanon91Mar-13 PlanningHoliday InnNashville180Nov-13 PlanningHoliday InnMurfreesboro100Feb-14 PlanningHome2 SuitesNashville109Apr-14 PlanningHomewood SuitesFranklin120Sep-14
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115 Additional Market Data – lots of possibilities Compare Actual Occupancy or ADR values Physical Cities – Graph (more detail than just tracts) Market by additional cuts (size, age, boutique, conference, special interest) Historic Supply, Demand, Occupancy & ADR Group/Transient or Day of Week data – Graph Daily data analysis (conventions, sporting events, entertainment, or weather)
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116 2012 / 2013 Forecast
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117 Total US - Key Performance Indicator Outlook Percent Change vs. Prior Year, Annual 2012 - 2013 Outlook 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.8%1.4% Demand 1.3%2.0% Occupancy 0.5% ADR 3.8%4.4% RevPAR 4.3%4.9%
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118 Total US – Actual Occupancy Forecast Annual 2005 – 2013P
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119 Total US – Actual ADR Forecast (In Dollars) Annual 2005 – 2013P
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120 U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – January 2012 20112012F2013F Real GDP+1.7%+2.2%+2.6% CPI+3.2%+2.1% Corporate Profits+8.1%+6.6%+6.3% Disp. Personal Income+1.1%+1.4%+2.0% Unemployment Rate9.0%8.7%8.3%
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121 Total US - Key Performance Indicator Outlook by Scale Annual 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.7%4.7%7.4% Upper Upscale 0.1%3.5%3.6% Upscale 2.0%4.5%6.6% Upper Midscale -0.3%3.7%3.4% Midscale 1.0%0.8%1.8% Economy 0.7%2.4%3.1% Independent -0.3%3.4%3.1% Total United States 0.5%3.8%4.3%
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122 -5% to 0% 0% to 5%5% to 10% 10% to 15%15% to 20% Anaheim-Santa AnaBoston Miami-Hialeah AtlantaChicago DallasDetroit DenverMinneapolis-St Paul HoustonNashville Los Angeles-Long BeachNorfolk-Virginia Beach New OrleansOahu Island New YorkSan Diego OrlandoSt. Louis Philadelphia Phoenix San Francisco-San Mateo Seattle Tampa-St Petersburg Washington, DC 2012 Year End RevPAR Forecast February 2012 Forecast – sorted alphabetically
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123 2013 Year End RevPAR Forecast February 2012 Forecast – sorted alphabetically -5% to 0% 0% to 5%5% to 10% 10% to 15% Anaheim-Santa AnaAtlanta DenverBoston NashvilleChicago New OrleansDallas New YorkDetroit Norfolk-Virginia BeachHouston Oahu IslandLos Angeles-Long Beach OrlandoMiami-Hialeah PhiladelphiaMinneapolis-St Paul PhoenixSan Diego San Francisco-San MateoSeattle St LouisTampa-St Petersburg Washington DC
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125 Weekday/Weekend Demand Percent Change Total US Running 12 Month - Jan 2007 to Aug 2010 Weekend travel started positive demand trend in early 2010
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126 Weekday/Weekend ADR Percent Change Total US Running 12 Month - Jan 2007 to Aug 2010 Weekday & Weekend ADR almost in lockstep?
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