1. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 1 Status of WG1 Science Plan Issues Christoph Schraff Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany KENDA LETKF at CNMCA : talk by Lucio Torrisi 3DVar at HMC (Sochi area): not (yet) as good as interpolated GME analyses; will test use of radar radial winds ARPA-SIM (Virginia Poli): comparison of 1D-Var+nudging and LHN 1D-Var not as good as LHN Problem: bias between moist physics of COSMO and diagnostic scheme used in 1D-Var  work will be stopped at DWD: Direct nudging of radial velocity LHN for COSMO-EU Nudging of GPS-IWV

2. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 2 threshold: 0.1 mm / h FSS, 11 g.pts. (30 km) 12-UTC forecast runs nudging of radar radial velocity: verif. vs. radar precipitation (1 – 27 May 2012) 00-UTC forecast runs ETS control (C-DE setup, with LHN) use of radial velocity added

3. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 3 nudging of radar radial velocity: summary experiment May 2012 with additional use of v r (control with LHN !) :  small positive impact on (mainly strong) precipitation  otherwise neutral  no show cases with strong positive impact next:  check and improve efficiency,  add few more tests,  make it operational

4. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 4 Latent Heat Nudging for COSMO-EU Motivation Reanalysis Project of HErZ would like to use LHN also on its larger domain configuration (COSMO-CORDEX,  x = 7km) Does it work ? Is there a negative interaction between LHN and the deep convection scheme ? Experiments 2 periods: Summer: August 2012 (incl. convective cases) Winter: 1 Nov. – 15 Dec. 2012 (incl. snow cases) operational COSMO-EU setup (Cosmo V4_27, tk?min=0.4) operational LHN setup except: no blacklist information used no bright band detection LHN within first 25 minutes of forecast (will be ~ 2.5h in operational run)

5. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 5 same data as for COSMO-DE, currently 17 German Doppler radar stations quality controlled 2 Dutch stations 2 Belgian stations 9 France stations 3 Swiss stations 2 Czech stations soon extended by 2 Polish stations every 5 minutes future: can be extended by OPERA composite outside COSMO-DE domain LHN for COSMO-EU: radar data coverage

6. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 6 hourly precipitation at 2 Aug. 2012, 00 UTC + 4h Radar Control(rout) LHN Experiment LHN for COSMO-EU: case study

7. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 7 12 UTC 0.1 mm/h 12 UTC 2.0 mm/h 00 UTC 2.0 mm/h00 UTC 0.1 mm/h LHN for COSMO-EU: verif. vs. radar precipitation (August 2012)

8. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 8 LHN in COSMO-EU is beneficial; forecast impact: Summer: precipitation improved (esp. convective cases) most surface parameters slightly improved Winter: neutral Work started to extend data coverage using OPERA radar composite LHN for COSMO-EU: Summary

9. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 9 Status of OPERA three 2-D composites are available every 15 minutes: current rain rate, sum over last hour, current maximum reflectivity Phillipe Lopez (ECMWF) found out: quality has increased in 2013 (with Baltrad QC) but is still not sufficient everywhere best quality over UK, France, Poland and Germany underestimation over southern Europe underestimation in snow cases lots of spurious ground echoes software transforming it to COSMO grids available (Stephan)

10. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 10 ODC composite 12 Aug 2013, 15 UTC Status of OPERA

11. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 11 Status of OPERA ‘EY composite: Input for LHN at DWD, 4 different storm-dep. Z-R relationships OPERA DC composite (C-DE domain): 1 Z-R relationship differences particularly for low precip rates; (erroneous spaital alignment ?) 12 Aug. 2013 15 UTC

12. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 12 Status of OPERA 3-D reflectivity and radial wind: reflectivity sent by almost all member states, radial wind only by few (but increasing) (Courtesy Hidde Leijnse, * indicates max. number) HIRLAM already gets access to volume data, but possible also for other consortia dissemination of volume data to member states planned for end of 2014 (to be decided: with or without quality information ?) discussion about meta data / quality issues are ongoing (e.g. to distinguish ‘zero echo’ – ‘no data’ (compare with raw data))

13. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 13 overall strategic goals of COSMO: convective-scale EPS  convective-scale ensemble-based DA other consortia: focus on 3D-/4D-Var for deterministic, EnKF for EPS hybrid Hybrid ‘4D-EnVar’ : without need of TL / adjoint Environment Canada ! UKMO ? HIRLAM ? DWD: hybrid 3D-EnVar for global ICON  for COSMO ? advantages of EnVar over LETKF (for deterministic run !) : localization on B, not in obs space  better for non-local obs hybrid approach mitigates sampling error disadvantages of EnVar over LETKF:  4D approach limited: Use only obs times where Grib fields used  costs  COSMO: continue with LETKF COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: General strategy

14. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 14 consolidation of LETKF scheme, wherever found required, may include extensions: –intrinsic stochastic physics (links to WG3a, WG7) –(other types of) additive covariance inflation –iterative (e.g. running in place like) approaches or latent heat nudging (LHN) in view of improving convection initiation –use of ensemble members with lagged valid time to reduce phase errors –blending techniques to combine information from the larger scales of the nesting model COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: Action items 2015  2017 (and beyond !)

15. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 15 integrated forecasting systemfor nowcasting (NWC) and very short-range-forecasting based on NWP –towards very high resolution (1 km / sub-km) (link to SFP project COSMO-Airport, incl. Mode-S data; sub-km) –towards very high frequent analysis and forecast update (link to HErZ TB1, KENDA with 5-min update using 3-d radar data) –main issue: quality ! (need to match obs, but maintain balance) –optional: ‘higher weights for latest observations’ (smaller obs errors, weaker data thinning) ? smaller localization scales ? –optional: evaluation of assimilation of NWC products as pseudo-obs such as stability indices and objects (using non-conventional metrics) COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: Action items 2015  2017 (and beyond !)

16. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 16 extended use of obs (particularly PBL, low-level humidity, cloud, precip) –consolidate obs focused in KENDA PP: radar, GPS slant path, SEVIRI cloud –improved use of screen-level obs (T2m, RH2m, uv10m) –SEVIRI WV (water vapour) channels –AMDAR humidity ; high-resolution aircraft Mode-S (wind) data –microwave radiometer (+ Raman lidar) T-, q- profiles, Doppler wind lidar, ceilometer cloud base height –(SEVIRI VIS for cloud properties, cloud radar data (CALIPSO, EarthCARE 2015) –renewable energy: power data from wind mill farms and solar power systems satellite no aerosol assimilation : –for COSMO-ART : accurate description of aerosol sources –would require substantial resources COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: Action items 2015  2017 (and beyond !)

17. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 17 lower BC (analysis (link to WG3b) + perturbations (link to WG7) !) –soil moisture SM (soil temperature, etc.), e.g. by: –include SM in control vector, add SMOS / ASCAT satellite SM –separate 2-D column analysis: LETKF, or EPS used in Var-SMA –snow cover and depth –SST (perturbations e.g. by pattern generator) diagnosis: (explore in EnKF framework) use of  FSO (Forecast Sensitivity to Observations) (→ link to HErZ project)  DFS (Degrees of Freedom for Signal) diagnostics (to assess usefulness of different observation types) 2017+ : adapt LETKF to ICON-LAM (review decision LETKF – EnVar) COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: Action items 2015  2017 (and beyond !)

18. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 18 … see previous slides MTG-IRS MW + IR radiance over land + in cloudy areas (dep. on experience in global DA) parameter estimation ? observation error correlations ? COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: Action items 2018  2020

19. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 19 insufficient quality of LETKF (  develop EnVar ?) need to maintain / increase (often temporary) human resources ! Depends on:  continuation of HErZ after 2014  new fixed position for radar DA  new temporary positions ?  EUMETSAT fellowship submitted by CNMCA: sat data on soil moisture  further increase of involvement e.g. by MCH, ARPA-SIM, CNMCA, … … new projects / collaboration with academia  new flexible portable scripts may facilitate experimentation + collaboration with other institutes on a technical level observation error correlations ? COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA: risks

20. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 20 consolidate / refine LETKF wherever required (enhancement techniques e.g. to correct phase errors; RIP, LHN …) integrated forecasting system for NWC – (V)SRNWP obs: radar, GPS slant, cloud; screen-level; SEVIRI WV, MTG IRS, … lower BC diagnosis: FSO, DFS adapt to ICON-LAM (develop EnVar ?) Science Plan issues on data assimilation: Summary

21. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 21 Science Plan issues on data assimilation: Summary

22. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 22 developments / plans at other consortia AROME: –EDA: 3DVar with perturbed obs incl. surface ana (AROME 2014, Arpege LBC) later: revisit breeding / ETKF –multiplicative inflation of forecast perturbations: 1.15 (every 3 hrs) –stochastic physics tendencies (SPPT): large-scale, slowly evolving –also tried: microphysics & turbulence parameter perturbations –perturbed surface initial conditions (SST, SM, Rs min, LAI, C veg, Z0 oro ) –coupling with large-scale analysis: tests with Jk term in Var (weak constraint towards coupling data in Var, truncate Jk info at k=20) –Tests with 1-hrly cycles (3DVar) –use of SEVIRI WV over land –issue: model bias with strong diurnal cycle

23. christoph.schraff@dwd.de Status of WG1 and Science Plan Issues COSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 23 UKMO: –NWP nowcasting system: Nowcasting Demonstration Project (NDP) –1hrly 4DVar with sub-hrly obs (…, MSG WV + AMVs, radar radial winds; hourly cloud obs (sat + surf), T2m, RH2m, uv10m) + LHN (!) –12-hour forecast every hour –40km-FSS beats STEPS (Lagrangian-extrapolation NWC) after 1.8 hrs –forms basis for next-generation UK NWP nowcasting system –generally: towards 4D-EnVar (without need of TL / adjoint ?) developments / plans at other consortia