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Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution Brian Smith Team Leader, Turbine Development National Wind Technology Center May 8, 2002.

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Presentation on theme: "Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution Brian Smith Team Leader, Turbine Development National Wind Technology Center May 8, 2002."— Presentation transcript:

1 Wind Energy Overview: Technology, Economics and Future Evolution Brian Smith Team Leader, Turbine Development National Wind Technology Center May 8, 2002

2 Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide MW Installed Year Jan 2002 Cumulative MW Rest of World = 2,365 North America = 4,543 Europe = 16,362 Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2001 Windpower Monthly, January 2002 ActualProjected Rest of World North America Europe

3 International Market Drivers Europe –high mandated purchase rates (85-90% of retail, 10-12 cents/kWh) –strong government and public commitment to the environment, including climate change –population density & existing developments driving off shore deployment in Europe Developing World –huge capacity needs –lack of existing infrastructure (grid) –pressure for sustainable development (IDB’s, climate change) –tied aid

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6 Wind Energy Technology At it’s simplest, the wind turns the turbine’s blades, which spin a shaft connected to a generator that makes electricity. Large turbines can be grouped together to form a wind power plant, which feeds power to the electrical transmission system.

7 Sizes and Applications Small (  10 kW) Homes Farms Remote Applications (e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking) Intermediate (10-250 kW) Village Power Hybrid Systems Distributed Power Large (250 kW - 2+MW) Central Station Wind Farms Distributed Power

8 Cost of Energy Trend 1979: 40 cents/kWh Increased Turbine Size R&D Advances Manufacturing Improvements NSP 107 MW Lake Benton wind farm 4 cents/kWh (unsubsidized) 2004: 3 - 5 cents/kWh 2000: 4 - 6 cents/kWh

9 Finances and Incentives Current Situation  Wind energy viable at higher wind speed sites (Class 6 – 15 mph annual average @ 10m)  Limited high wind sites in U.S.  Subsidies important to compete Production Tax Credit  1.7 cents/kWh (escalating) for 10 years (~ 1.1 cent/kWh reduction in contract price)  deadline pressure increases costs State and Local tax can be significant  +/- 0.5 cents/kWh impact

10 NREL’s National Wind Technology Center Research and Development EW 1.5 MW Drive Train 35 Meter Blade Strength Test NASA Ames 80’X 120’ Wind Tunnel Yaw angle = 30° 2-D Dynamic Stall Basic & Applied Research World-Class Testing Facilities Advanced Prototype Development

11 Wind Resource Mapping Identifies most promising areas for wind energy development Employs geographic information system technology to create layers of key information Used by state energy planners, Indian tribes, and developers Approach changing from empirical to numerical modeling techniques Forecasting, resource assessment and site specific inflow quantification methods are likely to converge into a single approach

12 Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment Predicting the aerodynamic loads on wind turbines remains the greatest technical challenge: -Wind is unsteady and three-dimensional. -Rapid changes in direction & magnitude force different flow conditions (stall, skewed flow, shear, etc.) -These conditions are unlike anything experienced by aircraft or helicopters. Completed joint program with NASA Ames in the 80’ x 120’ wind tunnel to resolve these aerodynamic effects. Results obtained will provide the benchmark data for aerodynamic code development and advanced blade concepts for the next 5-10 years.

13 Hybrid Systems Development Wales, Alaska Control System Installation  Staff are currently in Wales installing innovative, high penetration control system for the wind/storage/diesel power supply system. Investigate problems associated with integrating multiple generation & energy storage devices -wind-diesel generation-fly wheels -PV-micro-turbines-batteries Develop new control strategies to optimize hybrid operation using multiple hardware components Test operation of user hardware in on & off line hybrid environment. water pumping battery charging power conversion ice making refrigeration

14 NREL’s Component Testing Facilities NREL operates the only full-scale blade testing facility in the U.S. for MW-scale wind turbines. NREL operates the only facility in the world for full-system wind turbine drive train testing. Both facilities are currently operating at maximum capacity. Larger facilities are necessary to support the development of new low wind speed technology: –5-MW designs under development –GE/Enron Wind 3.6 MW prototype is built and ready to test 34-Meter Blade Test at Industrial User Facility 750-kW Drive train test in 2.5-MW Dynamometer Test Facility

15 Wind Integration Monitoring & Analysis Wind integration barriers: Fluctuating wind outputs raise concern about system stability and ancillary costs Wind cannot be controlled or dispatched Research needs: Monitor windfarm output to measure the fluctuations, and access ancillary impacts and costs Assist utilities develop better models of windfarm electrical output for planning, operations, and transmission requirements Provide technical support to utility staff developing and planning for wind integration Support the improvement of forecasting techniques to predict output

16 Challenging DOE Program Goals Low Wind Speed Technology Develop wind turbine technology (>100kW) capable of 3 cents/kWh in Class 4 (13.4 mph wind site) by 2010 Increase area available for wind energy development by a factor of 20 or more Accelerate achievement of the domestic renewable energy generations capacity goal Distributed Wind Systems Reduce the cost of energy from distributed wind systems to $.10-$.15/kWh at Class 3 wind sites (12 mph wind site) by 2007 Increase distributed energy capacity in the United States

17 Transmission Line 230 KV and greater Major Load Center Wind Power Classification 13-14 15+ Good/Excellent Outstanding 4-5 6 Wind Speed at 10 m (mph) Resource PotentialWind Power Class Wind Resource Class Comparison

18 Baseline (15 GW in 2020) No technology breakthrough Class 6 Plateau  Expands resource base 20-fold  Reduces average distance to load 5-fold  35 GW additional opportunity by 2020 Program Goal: 3 cents/kWh Class 4 COE in 2010 Benefits of Low Wind Speed Technology to U.S. Industry 10 20 30 40 50 60 2005201020152020 GW Competitive Class 4 Technology* *Growth trajectory from NEMS using AEO 2001 assumptions with 3 cent/Class4/2007 technology EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases Opportunity 2001 Reference High Renewables

19 Turbines Under Development with Industry Height in meters

20 Turbine Research Prototypes EW 750i (NTRT) AOC 15/50 (NTPT) NPS NW 100 (CWT) WTC 500 kW EMD-1 (NGT)EW 1.5 MW POC (NGT) Bergey XL.50 (SWT)

21 EW 1.5 MW

22 Technology Challenges – Very Tall Towers Vestas V66 on 117 m tower Steel tube Truss towers Pre-stressed concrete Composite Hybrid towers Self-erecting/no cranes Tall Tower Concepts: (85 – 120 m, 280 – 400 ft) Development Challenges: Weight and cost Shipping On site manufacturing Fatigue loading Tower load feedback control Foundation cost

23 Source: Multibrid Technology Brochure Generator and Single Stage Gearbox Integrated Low Speed Technology Challenges – 5 MW Drive Train

24 A Future Vision for Wind Energy 2002 Maturing Technology Bulk Power Generator 4-6¢ at 15mph  Land Based  Bulk Electricity  Wind Farms Potential 20% of Electricity Market Business as Usual Path Transmission Barriers Regulatory Barriers Land & Ocean Large & Small Electricity Electrolysis H2 Cost & Infrastructure Barriers Land Based LWST Mid-West Plains Offshore Wind Ocean Based LWST 5MW Scale Coastal Markets Future Low Wind Speed Technology 3¢/kWh at 13mph 20% of Electricity High Probability of Success 2010 Low Wind Speed Technology Offshore ?¢/kWh at 13mph 20% of Electricity 2010 Wind-H2 Technology Transportation Firm Electricity Industrial Residential Unlimited Market 2030 & Beyond Offshore Path Wind-Hydrogen Path


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