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The Deniers Cycles Within Cycles. Premise… Solar variability and long-term variation in solar luminosity are the key drivers of climate change.

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Presentation on theme: "The Deniers Cycles Within Cycles. Premise… Solar variability and long-term variation in solar luminosity are the key drivers of climate change."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Deniers Cycles Within Cycles

2 Premise… Solar variability and long-term variation in solar luminosity are the key drivers of climate change

3

4 The Active Sun Solar Flares and Sunspots The solar constant varies by about 0.1%

5 A look at one of the claims… Pg 163 – increased solar irradiance causes oceanic heating leading to increased release of CO 2 from ocean A 200 year “super-cycle”? Some basic facts: –Mass of oceans 10 24 kg –Solar constant 1400 W/m 2 –Radius of Earth 6.38 X 10 6 m

6 Do Planetary Motions Drive Solar Variability? (De Jager & Versteegh, Solar Physics(2005)229:175-179) Fairbridge Hypothesis – motion around barycentre* “generates” sunspots –“… His theory, uncovered with the help of NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is that sunspot activity is affected by the solar system’s centre of gravity” pg 172 –“The Sun’s own orbit, Fairbridge found, has eight charactersitic patterns …” pg 173 –“This hypothesis, radical for its time and roundly rejected, is now acknowledged as a feature of the history of the planet” pg 174 … Our tentative prediction is for the inception of a new prolonged minimum within the time span of the solar barycentric orbit of 1990-2013. (from Fairbridge and Shirley Solar Phys (1987) 110;191-210) *book is in error – barycentre is just outside solar surface

7 From De Jager and Verseteegh… Abstract. We examine the occasionally forwarded hypothesis that solar activity originates by planetary Newtonian attraction on the Sun. We do this by comparing three accelerations working on solar matter at the tachocline level: Those due to planetary tidal forces, to the motion of the Sun around the planetary system’s centre of gravity, and the observed accelerations at that level. We find that the latter are by a factor of about 1000 larger than the former two and therefore cannot be caused by planetary attractions. We conclude that the cause of the dynamo is purely solar. Link to Astronomy 200 notes on solar activity

8 What are the “astronomical” links to climate change? Milankovich Hypothesis… Link to Astronomy 200 notes on climate change


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