1. Alcohol Improvement Programme - National Conference Turning Data into Intelligence and Harnessing Social Marketing Tuesday 2nd and Wednesday 3rd June 2009 Chris Gibbins, Health Improvement Analytical Team, Department of Health Understanding the Attributable Fractions and VSC26/NI39

2. Turning Data into Intelligence 2 Content Where are we and how have we got here? What do the latest data tell us? What are PCTs planning? What data are available for 2008/09? What is coming up?

3. Turning Data into Intelligence 3 Where are we and how have we got here? Defining indicator Definitions released for VS/NIS Dec 07 Oct 07 Performance framework development Decision to use alcohol admissions in PSA/VS/NIS Feb 08 Mar 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Producing figures Review of Alcohol Attributable Fractions Interim AAFs VS and LAA negotiations 2005/07 data to NHS/LAs 2002/05 data to NHS/LAs Material published on LAPE Producing accompanying material Planning tool made available Agreeing refresh PSA Delivery Plan PSA Reporting Producing figures / revising metadata Dec 08 Refresh material published on LAPE Refresh signed-off VS and LAA negotiations Securing use of prov 2007/08 data Provisional 2007/08 data to NHS/LAs via regions Feb 09 Plans for 2008/09- 2010/11 Final 2007/ 2008 data Mar 09 Final 2007/08 data on LAPE Improve access First sub- analyses on LAPE PSA Delivery Plan 2008/ 2009 data Micro-data issued. HES approval. IC bulletin Apr 09 May 09 Prov Q1-3 2008/09 on LAPE Set up Refresh Essentials Access/Depth

4. Turning Data into Intelligence 4 What do the latest data tell us? The rate in 2007/08 was 1473 per 100,000 population, a 6% increase on 2006/07 - slightly below the baseline trend increase. This equates to a total of 863,000 admissions, an increase of 64,000 (8%) on 2006/07. The increase varies considerably between PCTs.

5. Turning Data into Intelligence 5 What do the latest data tell us? No strong relationship between degree of increase and current rate – ie the gap between PCTs is not growing (or shrinking) significantly.

6. Turning Data into Intelligence 6 What do the latest data tell us? Increase slightly higher among female population (not accounted for by population growth / ageing). Growth higher among older people (only some explained by ageing population). Elective and A&E admissions have both increased as a percentage of the total. Number of admissionsRate of admission Sex Age Method of admission

7. Turning Data into Intelligence 7 What do the latest data tell us? Admissions with an alcohol-specific condition accounted for a quarter of the total. They increased by 70% between 2002/03 and 2007/08, close to the average of 69%. For over half of the admissions, the principal alcohol-related condition was an “other chronic disease with a low attributable fraction” - nearly two thirds of which were hypertensive diseases. There was a 92% increase in admissions in this group. ‘Principal’ alcohol-related condition

8. Turning Data into Intelligence 8 What do the latest data tell us? 20% of patients account for 57% of the admissions. 1% account for one in eight. Who are these patients?

9. Turning Data into Intelligence 9 What data are available for 2008/09? IC are now publishing monthly data on admitted patients IC policy is that most recent month should not be used because of insufficient quality This view supported by analysis. However, increase in single month’s figures between 2 nd and 3 rd month of release typically 2% - 5%. Can get some big changes in minority of PCTs. Propose to use from 3 rd month. Can now release data up to Dec 2008. Propose to release quarterly.

10. Turning Data into Intelligence 10 What data are available for 2008/09? Suggests admissions at national level are running about 7.5% above 2007/08

11. Turning Data into Intelligence 11 What is coming up? Defining indicator Definitions released for VS/NIS Dec 07 Oct 07 Performance framework development Decision to use alcohol admissions in PSA/VS/NIS Feb 08 Mar 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Producing figures Review of Alcohol Attributable Fractions Interim AAFs VS and LAA negotiations 2005/07 data to NHS/LAs 2002/05 data to NHS/LAs Material published on LAPE Producing accompanying material Planning tool made available Agreeing refresh PSA Delivery Plan PSA Reporting Producing figures / revising metadata Dec 08 Refresh material published on LAPE Refresh signed-off VS and LAA negotiations Securing use of prov 2007/08 data Provisional 2007/08 data to NHS/LAs via regions Feb 09 Plans for 2008/09- 2010/11 Final 2007/ 2008 data Mar 09 Final 2007/08 data on LAPE Improve access First sub- analyses on LAPE PSA Delivery Plan 2008/ 2009 data Micro-data issued. HES approval. IC bulletin Apr 09 May 09 Prov Q1-3 2008/09 on LAPE Set up Refresh Essentials Access/Depth

12. Turning Data into Intelligence 12 What is coming up? Publication of Qs 1 to 3 2008/09 on LAPE Further sub-analyses on LAPE Alcohol-related admissions variable on HES data sets