1. Multi-Commodity Flow Joe Monahan Josh Onuska

2. Back Story N.S. - Largest rail shipper of automobiles Scope – Exclusive deal with Ford (1.9 million sold in 2010) – Facilities operating 24 hours / 7 days – East Coast distribution Risks – Terrorism or war – Labor union strikes – Severe weather – Derailing / rail failure

3. Why Multi-Commodity?

4. Nodes and Arcs Nodes – 5 assembly plants – 4 mixing centers – 25 distribution facilities Arcs – 22,000 miles of rail – 30,000 Ford vehicles shipped weekly – Capacity is more than sufficient to handle demand

5. N.S. Rail System

6. Automotive Shipping Facilities

7. Assembly Plants & Mixing Centers

8. Assembly Plants Location Supply Model Cleveland 5,000Econoline Van Chicago 5,000Taurus, Explorer Detroit 10,000Mustang, F-150, Focus Kansas City 5,000F-150, Escape, Contour Louisville 5,000SuperDuty,Expedition,Navigator

9. Containerization

10. Mixing Centers Location Capacity Region Chicago5938 NE/NW Louisville 3510 SE/E Toledo 2800 NE Kansas City 2538 NW/MW

11. Chicago Mixing Center

12. Node Overlay

14. Model Multi-commodity: Sorted (5) / Mixed Supply/Demand Driven – Supply = 30,000 – Demand = 30,000 – 60,000 units in motion – Accounts for 75% of Ford’s monthly U.S. sales Network Risks – Arcs unusable – Weather – Accident – Unions – Bridges

15. Cleveland(Avon Lake) Chicago Detroit (Dearborn/Wayne) Louisville Kansas City Toledo Chicago Louisville Kansas City Mixed Source Mixed Sink Assembly Plants Mixing Stations Assembly Sinks -30,000 30,000 -5000 -10000 D C L K A 5000 10000

16. Network Characteristics Network Goal – Meeting demand at the minimum cost – DNM: Current vs Future Profit loss Measure of effectiveness – Average cost to deliver vehicle to distribution facility – MOE = Total Cost / # of cars shipped – Total Cost = (.25)(Rail Miles) + (DNM)($2700)

17. Assumptions 30,000 cars moved per week (From Mid-West Plants) – 20,000 to East Coast / 10,000 to West Coast $0.25 per rail mile for each car moved No cost incurred for movement between co- located facilities DNM results in lost sales

18. Assembly Plants & Mixing Centers

19. Assembly Plants to Mixing Facilities Mixing Facility Assembly Plant

20. Mixing Facilities to Distribution Sites

21. Initial Results Base line – zero attacks: – Total Mileage: 25,511,500 Rail miles – Total Cost: $6,377,875.00 – Cost per vehicle:$212.00

22. Results w/ Interdiction 1 Interdiction – 23,219,000 Miles; $11,204,750; $386.37/car 5 Interdictions – 14,460,000 Miles; $49,515,000; $2,303.02/car 10 Interdictions – 8,010,000 Miles; $88,402,500; $6,314.46/car 17 Interdictions – 5,010,000 Miles; $139,600,500; $31,872.60/car

23. Impacts of Interdiction

24. Resiliency Curve Cost over profit margin Attack Saturation

25. Charts: Cost of Interdiction Map of varying paths after each interdiction And/or histograms of cost at each interdiction

26. Resiliency How do we make the system more robust and resistant to catastrophic collapse? – Add arcs to isolated nodes – Back up plan (trucks) Can we move nodes around (mixing stations or distribution points) to get a more efficient solution? – Moving or even eliminating mixing stations improves performance.

27. Optimal Attack Histogram

28. Frequency of Attack Locations

29. Additional Analysis Option to eliminate one of the four mixing facilities: – Bypassed Chicago – $194,375 in weekly savings

30. Analysis Limitations Lots of assumptions Changes in Consumer Demand by geographic location

31. Conclusion What did we learn from the model? – Hub and spoke affect How does the model react to interdiction? – Greatest impact from interdiction seen in DNM Critical vulnerabilities? – Isolated nodes, close proximity of Assm. Plants How can we improve the system to lower cost? – Eliminate Mixing Facility Diminishing returns after 17 attacks

32. Questions