1. WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements Brian Mills Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research Division Environment Canada Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca +1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496)Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WG http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html ArcticNet (2010)

2. Opening thoughts Northern/Canadian bias (bi-polar?) Limited time/thought thus far Implementation will require a SERA sub-committee with one liaison to the Steering Group ACIA (2008:991)

3. Core Membership social scientists users engagers WWRP Expert Liaison (Verification) WWRP Expert Liaison (THORPEX-TIGGE) WWRP Expert Liaison (Mesoscale Weather, THORPEX-RCs,etc.) Research & Application Interest Groups Projects, Demonstrations & Testbeds WMO Programme Management (THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CCl- OPAGs3/4…) Other Connections (IFRC, IAEM, Earth System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO, WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry organizations, IIASA, etc.) ICSU/ISSC/ISDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) WWRP-SERA & Polar Prediction Project

4. General observations Costs are as important as benefits Longitudinal analysis/perspective and comparison across social, institutional and cultural geography is critical Value accrues in use (decision-action-consequence web) and is highly dependent on the context, situation and capacity of the individual, group or organization Primary entry point should be through National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS)

5. Flows of information and potential benefits Mills (2011)

6. Possible benefit areas REGIONALEXTRA-REGIONAL Residents and Indigenous communities lives (safety/health/QOL) livelihoods culture infrastructure … Resource development and use energy, minerals, fisheries, water, transportation, tourism, R&D environment worker/visitor safety … Safety, security, sovereignty, and environment Improved predictions in other regions

7. SERA elements Literature review to establish/confirm weather-related sensitivities/risks, benefit areas, and applications for decision- prediction scales (nowcasting through seasonal); social and economic research capacity evaluation (incl. gap analysis) Past-present-future prediction and services perspectives (researchers-forecasters-primary users…) define risks, opportunities, and decision problems translation of skill improvements into products/services, costs and benefits enabling factors Traditional and local knowledge perspectives (?)

8. Mining completed and on-going R&D International Polar Year ArcticNet (Canada - http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.acia.uaf.edu/) Polar Communications and Weather satellite mission (Canada) European, Asian, and Southern Hemisphere activities

9. Mining completed and on-going R&D ArcticNet (2010)

10. Important partners/endorsements International Social Sciences Research Council (ISSC) (http://www.worldsocialscience.org/) Arctic Council (http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/) Antarctic (?) WMO (Public Weather Services), WCRP