1. Chapter 5: Public Opinion

2. Our government rests on public opinion.
Abraham Lincoln
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Public Opinion
An aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs
Polls measure public opinion
Foundation of democracy
Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly
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4. Defining Public Opinion
Consensus: general agreement on an issue
Divisive opinion: public opinion which is polarized between two opposite positions
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5. Consensus vs. Divisive Opinions
Consensus Opinion
Divisive Opinion
Most Americans are willing to express opinions on political issues when asked.
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6. Political Socialization
Sources of political socialization
Family and the social environment
Educational system
Peer group
Opinion leaders
Media
Agenda setting
Equals family influence
Researchers feel that young people often hold more liberal views than their parents because of greater access to information about issues and values.
During the large influx of immigrants in the late nineteenth century, one factor in promoting mandatory education for all children was the ability to use schools to promote U.S. culture and values, including political information and attitudes.
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7. Political Socialization
Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation.
Generational effect (cohort effect) are the effects on opinion from the era in which one lives
Great Depression
Watergate
September 11 terrorist attacks
Reagan years vs. Obama years
The economic crash of the Great Depression years is not matched by the modern economic downturn. During the Depression years, up to 25% of the population was out of work, and millions lost their savings and their homes.
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8. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior
Demographic Influences
Education
Economic Status
Religious Influence: Denomination
Religious Influence: Commitment
Race and Ethnicity
Gender
Geography
Age
Political advertising may be targeted to voters in one or more demographic groups. Microtargeting involves using an extensive amount of information about potential voter groups to formulate campaign ads.
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Liberals/Conservatives Differ on Spending for Safety Net and Environmental Issues
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Red States and Blue States Have Similar Opinions on Many Controversial Issues
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Voting Gender Gap, 1992 to 2008
A gender gap in U.S. politics began to emerge in the 1980s. In general, women are more liberal than men, and gender gaps are also evident on specific issues.
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12. Election-Specific Voting Behavior Factors
Party Identification (partisanship)
Political ideology affected by both political and social values
Perception of the Candidates
Issue Preferences
Voter choices are often based on emotion, rather than judgments about experience or policy. In the presidential election years following a major scandal, such as Watergate, candidates perceived to have high integrity are more attractive to voters.
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Role of Elites
Elite Theory: public opinion is shaped by discourse among elites, is top-to-bottom process
Modern elites shape citizen thinking
Media/political observers
Politicians
Policymakers
Citizens must be exposed to the message and must be open to it
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14. Polling about the Economy
This story discusses American’s pessimism about economic recovery, and their views on Congress. Tea party politics is seen by many as a viable alternative.
Airdate: 5/21/2010
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Video Supplied by Motion Gallery
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Video Questions
Are the poll results an accurate reflection of Americans’ views about Congress? Will this impact Congressional legislation?
Why are “tea party” members more likely to identify with Republican views?
Does an individual’s socioeconomic status affect their political views? How?
Are economic recovery efforts swayed by public opinion?
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16. Measuring Public Opinion
The History of Opinion Polls
1800s: Straw Polls
1930s: Modern, relatively accurate polling techniques developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper and others
Post WWII: University of Michigan founded Survey Research Center
JFK: first president to use polling
In the political arena, President Bill Clinton extended the use of polling to new levels in order to craft a message or legislation which appealed to the broadest voter base.
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17. Measuring Public Opinion (cont)
Sampling Techniques
Representative Sampling (accurate)
The Principle of Randomness
A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error.
Quota Sampling (less accurate)
The most important principle in sampling is randomness: each potential respondent should have an equal chance of being sampled. A less accurate technique is quota sampling in which researchers decide how many of certain types of respondents are needed in the survey. Researchers then actively seek respondents for predetermined quotas.
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Polling Terms
Population is entire group the poll represents
Sample
Subset of a population
Norm for an accurate sample is 1,000 people
Representative Sample
Not biased
All members of population have equal chance of being interviewed
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Polling Terms (cont)
Confidence interval: the statistical range that takes random error into account
Sampling error: measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll
Nonattitudes
Respondents have no opinion or are uninformed
Sources of poll errors when individuals feel compelled to answer
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Problems with Polls
Sampling Errors
The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed.
Many poll results can be misleading
Scientific polling (random sampling) increases accuracy
When can sampling errors be dangerous?
Gallup and Roper polls typically randomly select 1,500 respondents, and have a high degree of accuracy in their results.
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PEANUTS © 1998 Charles Schulz. Reprinted by permission of United Feature Syndicate, Inc.
BLONDIE by Young & Drake. © Reprinted with special permission of King Features Syndicate
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22. Problems with Polls (cont)
Poll Questions
Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer.
Push Polls
Attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker.
Used by candidates at every level
Push polls are used by candidates at every level, from local city council races to presidential elections. How would a voter respond to the following question, “Would you support Candidate John Doe whose own sons do not believe in volunteering to serve our country?”
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Dewey Defeats Truman?
The famous (and erroneous) headline published on November 2, 1948 by the Chicago Tribune. Truman particularly enjoyed this photo as the Tribune had a low opinion of Truman, and had referred to him as a “nincompoop.”
Infamous Chicago Tribune headline on November 2, 1948 predicting Truman’s presidential defeat. Polls showed Truman was behind. © UPI /Bettmann /Corbis
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24. Technology and Opinion Polls
Advent of Telephone Polling
Easier and less expensive than door-to-door polling
Became new standard
Polling fatigue (many are market research)
Declining nonresponse rates
Cell phone proliferation has reduced poll accuracy
Use of caller ID/answering machines affects results
A high nonresponse rate and the proliferation of cell phones, particularly among young people, are lessening the efficacy and accuracy of telephone polling.
In the 1990s, the rate of response was nearly 40 percent, and now it is about 25 percent.
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25. Technology and Opinion Polls (cont)
Internet Polling
There are many unscientific “nonpolls” on the Internet
Not yet truly representative
In time, nonresponse rates to Internet polling could escalate like those of telephone polls.
The Internet population is moving closer to reflecting the demographic makeup of the U.S. population. Experts do not yet believe it meets the test for accurate random sampling.
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26. Public Opinion and the Political Process
Political Culture and Popular Opinion
A set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and government. Certain shared beliefs about important values are considered the core of American political culture.
Current U.S. values include liberty, equality and personal achievement
Values like liberty, equality, and property, support for religion, as well as community service and personal achievement, unite our political culture despite a highly diverse population.
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27. Presidential Election Polling
This story talks about why polling is so complex: different polls make different assumptions about voters, and thus, reach different results.
Airdate: 10/24/2008
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Video Supplied by Motion Gallery
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Video Questions
How can inaccurate polling data hinder democracy?
What changes would you expect to see in the collection of public opinion data in the next few years?
Did polling data affect the outcome of the 2008 presidential election?
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29. Public Opinion and the Political Process
Political Culture/Support
Political Trust
Americans generally trust the political system to resolve issues.
In the United States, important political values include liberty, equality and property; support for religion; community service and personal achievement. Feelings about the institution of government helped the country deal with the uncertainty following the 2000 presidential election, and did not lead to a constitutional crisis. Americans were generally confident in the system’s ability to resolve the issue.
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30. Public Opinion About Government
Trust in government peaked after 9/11, but fell back thereafter.
Over the years, the military and churches receive the highest levels of public confidence.
After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs.
Confidence in churches is hurt by a series of sexual abuse scandals.
The Supreme Court scores highly
Media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more poorly.
Regardless of trust in government, the public tends to look to the government to solve immediate problems, particularly those they learn about through news stories (such as Hurricane Katrina, the war in Iraq or the H1N1 pandemic). The government’s response affects public opinion.
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Confidence in Institutions: Percentage of Americans Who Have a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of Confidence in Major U.S. Institutions
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32. Public Opinion and Policymaking
The general public believes the leadership should pay attention to popular opinion.
Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this.
Setting Limits on Government Action
Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies.
When public opinion changes drastically, government policy is much more likely to change as well.
Latent public opinion: Underlying opinions and attitudes of the public that are not always captured in public opinion data but are recognized by public officials and influential in policymaking.
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33. Public Opinion and Policymaking (cont)
Polarization: stark political disagreement
Currently at high levels
Fuels controversy and political attacks
Depolarization: parties agree and have similar policy positions
Offers little political choice
Leads to decreased political participation
Polarization: Current levels of polarization are higher between Democrats and Republicans than at any time since the Civil War. This tends to increase the level of political participation.
Public opinion is shaped by partisanship and ideology.
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34. Questions for Critical Thinking
In what ways have you been socialized politically? Compare and contrast your experiences with your classmates.
In your opinion, what are the core American political values?
How will current political polarization affect U.S. policymaking?
What purposes do public opinion polls serve?
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Web Links
The Gallup Organization
MSNBC
Pollingreport.com
Roper Center
American National Election Studies (ANES )
The Gallup Organization: Since 1935 the Gallup Organization has conducted surveys to measure public opinion on various issues. Its polls cover five subject areas: Politics and Elections, Business, Social Issues and Policy, Managing, and Lifestyle.
MSNBC Opinions: Provides opinion articles and transcripts of programs, and allows visitors to participate in MSNBC polls and to register their views on a bulletin board system (BBS) or through the MSNBC chat room.
An independent, nonpartisan resource on public opinion polls. The site organizes polls from multiple sources by category, such as the president, Congress, Election 2008, Iraq, and consumer confidence. It is updated whenever a new poll is released.
The Roper Center website contains information on the current and past presidents’ job performance and a listing of current Roper surveys.
The National Election Studies of the University of Michigan website provides access to the most recent national election study. This information can be analyzed online.
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