1. 1 Neha Rai December 2013 Neha Rai December 2013 The case of the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Bangladesh Neha Rai, 01.12.2013 Political economy of climate resilient development (CRD) planning

2. 2 Neha Rai December 2013 Content Why do we need a political economy assessment (PEA)? Conceptual approach and Methodology Key steps and findings Emerging lessons

3. 3 Neha Rai December 2013 Political Economy Assessment- What and Why Why do we need to understand the political economy Climate resilient planning is not an apolitical process (Tanner). Different actors at different scales bring their own ideology to the table. A growing trend in climate finance initiatives has led to changes in incentives & governance structures. Different actors coalitions encourage or hinder CRD planning processes. Governments need better understanding of political economy to resolve conflicts or harness coalitions to steer processes. It is an evolving discourse due to the complexity associated with climate change. Policy makers understanding is also constantly evolving. PEA is a suited to support a learning by doing approach. What is political economy? A PEA therefore establishes that policy decisions are “not just a rational choice, but shaped by new ideas, incentives, power plays and actors” Solutions/ Decisions Govt. official s Community of Experts People

4. 4 Neha Rai December 2013 Purpose- Internal PEA to assess the political economy dynamics that shape decisions regarding the use of international climate finance at the national level. Scope: analysis of interactions between (a)Actors – their role, interests, (b)their ideologies and knowledge (c)and the underlying incentives. Decision outcomes/ Responses to climate change Conceptual approach and Scope

5. 5 Neha Rai December 2013 Methodology/ Steps Step 1: Identify issues/ decision points Step 2: Actor Analysis/Mapping Step 3: Discourse analysis to understand ideologies and coalitions. Step 4: Identify underlying incentives Step 6: Analyse interactions b/w actors, ideologies & incentives that shape decision Step 7: Inform policy

6. 6 Neha Rai December 2013 Climate investment funds and PPCR Climate Investment Funds CTFSCF PPCRFIPSREP PPCR aims to help countries transform onto a climate resilient development path, consistent with national poverty reduction and sustainable development goals.

7. 7 Neha Rai December 2013 Step 1: Identify key decision points

8. 8 Neha Rai December 2013 Key decision points in different stages of PPCR Planning/ Conceptualisation Participation issue: Who to involve in decision making? Financing issue: Loan Vs. Grant Prioritisation/ Selection outcome Institutionalisation Role issue: Where should PPCR be hosted? Who should execute it? MoE, MoEF? MDBs? Which line ministries? Role of private sector vs. state ? Response priorities: What investments to prioritise? Why prioritise coastal infrastructure?

9. 9 Neha Rai December 2013 Step 2: Stakeholder analysis Map key actors by actor categories Map their roles in different stages of PPCR stages. Map their interests in different PPCR stages. Map their influence.

10. 10 Neha Rai December 2013 Key actors and their roles ? Directly involved in PPCR No direct involvement Policy leaders Tech Dept.'s MDBs Dev. partner Other Multilaterals CSOs Other Govt Stage MDBsTechnical (LGED, BWDB) Policy leaders MoF, MoE DonorsOther multilater als Other depts. DM, MoA CSOs Planni ng RoleXXXX XXXX InfluenceXXXX XX InterestXXXX X Priority setting RoleXXX XXX InfluenceXXX XXX InterestXXX XXXXX Imple menta tion RoleXXX InfluenceXXX InterestXXX

11. 11 Neha Rai December 2013 Step 3: Identify Ideologies/core beliefs of actors. Discourse analysis using Hajerian Discourse Analysis approach. -Identify dominant discourses: Semi structured interviews to understand key narratives or worldviews around PPCR objectives/ design principles. -Observe coalitions around discourses.

12. 12 Neha Rai December 2013 Dominant Actor Coalition MDB Policy leaders DPs Transformational change- Infrastructure narrative Developmental Benefits- Economic growth narrative Loans in Adaptation- Pro loan narrative Pvt sector in adaptation- Market liberalist Tech Dept.'s Technical View or Infrastructure development view -There is an actor coalition around infrastructure investments and economic growth pathway to transformational change and development benefits. -Loans and private sector is perceived to have a key role in delivering these investments and pathways.

13. 13 Neha Rai December 2013 Alternative but dispersed views Social development view Actor coalition around social development and community based response pathway towards transformational change and development effectiveness. Loans are perceived as unjust financing modalities and private sector is considered less mature in a dominant ‘development state’. Transformational change- Social welfare narrative Developmental Benefits- Social welfare Loans in Adaptation- Neutral or Against loans Pvt sector in adaptation- Developmental state or sceptics. Unengaged Gov. dept. Civil society Other Multi laterals

14. 14 Neha Rai December 2013 Step 4: Map underlying incentives Knowledge based Resource based

15. 15 Neha Rai December 2013 What incentivises actors to prioritise infrastructure pathways Knowledge Shared knowledge or evidence of vulnerability and needs based on scientific studies. Shared evidence of urgency- Rising sea level, loss and damage. Based on climate modelling information, L&D assessments. Shared expertise of actors: Engineering, technical M&E. Comparative advantage of the institutions working in coastal infrastructure. Need to show results. Resource interdependencies Opportunity to top up existing pipeline projects of MDBs. Resource interdependencies and alliances. History of existing partnerships between MDBs and Tech departments. Resource needs. Enormous need for finance to investments in coastal areas.

16. 16 Neha Rai December 2013 Step 5: Analyse interactions b/w actors, ideologies & incentives that shape decision

17. 17 Neha Rai December 2013 Dominant coalitions with shared ideologies and incentives shape decisions Shape discourse Compete Actors Advocate Impose Ideologies Shared knowledge Resource interdependencies. Institutional expertise/traditions Incentives Decisions Institutional traditions/expertise, resource interdependencies and shared ideas and knowledge base of actors has shaped the prioritisation of business as usual infrastructure development. Resource needs and evidence of urgency drive financing modalities that emphasise use of loans in adaptation. Institutional traditions and international drivers drive a strong vision to engage private sector in adaptation-(often by delineating some government actors- e.g. MoA).

18. 18 Neha Rai December 2013 Ideological coalitions with dispersed resources knowledge and incentives are less able to influence decisions. …….However, actors that oppose dominant actions are in a position to deter ongoing actions or complement actions depending on their buy in and available incentives.

19. 19 Neha Rai December 2013 Step 6: Use PEA to inform policy making

20. 20 Neha Rai December 2013 Policy suggestions  Learn to use the political economy in different contexts: Each CRD planning decision will have proponents and dissenters depending on ideologies, incentives and resources. In order to achieve timely outcomes, governments and development partners will need to be bold and find context specific pathways towards climate resilience development that work around the political economy at hand, often by reshaping incentives.  Be purposeful in policy and process: More attention is needed to the sequencing of decisions and representation of actors in the policy process. Ensuring that line ministries, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, are engaged in CRD decisions that directly effect them will increase the likelihood of ownerships and alignment during implementation  Tie incentives to context by acknowledging diverse actors/incentives: Consensus often masks the difference that will shape policy implementation. Bangladesh’s experience highlights that a large diversity of viewpoints and incentives shape CRD decisions. Governments and development partners can improve the effectiveness of policies by acknowledging the political economy for CRD and planning to work with diverse actor coalitions to achieve desired policy outcomes that are transformational.

21. 21 Neha Rai December 2013 Broad lessons from PEA- Ladder of consensus Harness dominant coalitions (Actors with shared ideas, resources, knowledge) PEA allows decision makers to understand what resources and incentives are needed to strengthen coalitions promoting CRD.  Use an extended participation approach.  Create avenues to develop knowledge and bridge science with indigenous knowledge.  Identifying roles and tying incentives Integrate alternative coalitions shared ideas, influence but dispersed resources or knowledge  PEA can be used to generate a process to negotiate between competing discourses.  Understand actor influence in diff stages to steer involvement.  Arrive at a holistic discourse.  Grievance management Address contested relations Diverging views Resourceful, influential.

22. 22 Neha Rai December 2013 Thank You Neha Rai International institute of environment and development (IIED), UK neha.rai@iied.org