1. Ross Pruitt Extension Livestock Economist

2. Summary  Recap of Overall Meat Complex in 2009  Beef Situation and Outlook  Poultry Situation and Outlook  Dairy Outlook  Aquaculture Outlook

4. 2009 Recap  Lower production in 2009 First time ever that red meat and poultry production declined in the same year  Lower production costs didn’t come soon enough  Slack demand H1N1 flu virus Exports remained “strong”

5. Livestock Marketing Information Center

6. Data Source: USDA/NASS

7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

8. Livestock Marketing Information Center

11. 2009 Beef Review  Continued reduction in national beef herd numbers  Ideal growing conditions for forage in 2009 Hay production affected in LA due to dry summer and wet fall  Increased carcass weights  Lower byproduct values  Continued feedlot losses of $90/head

12. Winter Grazing Costs

13. Louisiana Steer Prices

15. Price Slides Remain Highly Variable

16. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/AMS

17. Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. 2010 Outlook  Stronger prices across the board Fed cattle: $86-89 (2009 Avg: $83.25) Feeder cattle: $98-104 (2009 Avg: $97.28) LA 500 lb steers: $100 (2009 Avg: $94.60) Cull cows: $40-50 (2009 Avg: $41.97)  Expect prices to remain volatile Narrowing of price slides again Economical grass-fed gains

20. CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2000 TO JANUARY 1, 2009 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

21. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

22. Livestock Marketing Information Center

23. Longer Term Summary  Expansion in the beef herd unlikely till 2012  Prices still may recover quickly with a healthy economy  Rising input costs will negate some of the higher returns

25. Poultry on the Upswing  Returned to profitability after loss filled 2008 Production even with year ago levels  Exports not as strong in 2009 Production cutbacks restored profitability Lowered feedstuff & energy prices improved outlook Byproduct values are higher than 2008

26. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/AMS

27. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

28. 2010 Poultry Outlook  Projected 2% production increase Slight increase in consumption  Trade issues with Russia  Acquisition/merger impacts?  Competition seminars  Lending concerns?

30. Dairy Outlook  Demand is slowly starting to return Export demand  Cold storage supplies need to decrease  CWT buyouts provided positive momentum Smaller dairy herds in the west

31. Livestock Marketing Information Center CWT Buyouts

32. Livestock Marketing Information Center

33. Aquaculture

34.  Weaker dollar will not prevent increased imports  Consumer spending in 2010?  Favorable supply conditions aid production Size of crawfish may be issue ○ Persistent cold weather ○ Overpopulation

35. Livestock Summary  Worst is likely behind the livestock industry 2010 will not be a cakewalk however  Lower production will aid prices Economic recovery will increase impact of lower production Chasing fewer consumer dollars?  How fast will input costs rise?

36. Email Newsletter  Sign up for twice a month marketing newsletter  Includes production tips, market news, and economic insight  Send email to rpruitt@agcenter.lsu.edu or contact your local extension agentrpruitt@agcenter.lsu.edu

37. Questions?