1. 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA kirschner@wsu.edukirschner@wsu.edu; kirschner01@gmail.com Leading Wisely, Living Well Retreat for Administrators of Washington Public Hospital Districts May 23, 2011 Richland, WA

2. 2 Major Trends in Washington Continued Growth Increasing Diversity Aging Increasing Income Inequality Education

3. 3 Population Growth WA State 1980 – 2030 Source: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/stfc/default.asp

4. Net Migration and Natural Increase Washington State: 1960-2010 4 Source: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/trends/population/fig301.asp

5. Increasing Diversity 5 % White (not Hispanic/Latino) Washington State: 1980 – 2008 Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf and 2010 Censushttp://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf

6. Increasing Diversity: Immigration 6 Percent Foreign Born: Washington 1980 – 2007 * ± 0.2% Data from American Community Survey * Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf

7. Increasing Diversity: Fertility 7 Total Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity: US 2005 Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf

8. 8 Increasing Diversity: Age Structure Non-Hispanic *Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf Median Age

9. Increasing Diversity: Interactions 9 Most immigrants are young adults who bring their children and their child bearing capacity with them. Most child bearing occurs under 35 Child bearing patterns combined with age of immigrants and their slightly higher birth rates, means that the number of children from diverse backgrounds will continue to increase for many years to come.

10. 10 Aging: Baby Boom

11. 11 Aging Growth in Population 65+ in WA State 2000 – 2030 Number

12. 12 Characteristics of Older Population More likely to be female: 65+ = 57.4%, 85+ = 68.8% Declining rates of poverty

13. 13 Population Change 1990 and 2000 Number in Age Group ClallamYakima Median Age 1990: 38.4 2000: 43.8Median Age 1990: 31.5 2000: 31.2 Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB1944E.pdf

14. U.S. GINI Index: 1947-2004 14 Different data series 2008= 4.66

15. Gini Index: U.S. Other Post Indus. 15 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2172.html Gini Index

16. 16 Education Percent of Washingtonians with a High School Diploma or Equivalent

17. 17 Education Percent of Washingtonians with a Bachelor’s Degree

18. 18 Education Washington’s Rank Nationally in 2000 Persons 25 and Over – With a High School Diploma 7 th – With a College Degree10 th Persons 18 to 24 – With a High School Diploma34 th – With a College Degree25 th – % Currently Enrolled in College40 th Measures for population of 25 and over influenced by: –Age specific migration trends –Past performance of educational system –Age structure of population Measures for 18- to 24-year-olds are a better indicator of current performance of higher education system

19. 19 Education Percent of Persons 18 to 24 Enrolled in College by Race/Ethnicity for Washington State: 2000 Not Hispanic *Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander

20. 20 Education Percent of Persons 18 to 24 Enrolled in College by Race/Ethnicity for Washington State: 2000 Not Hispanic *Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander

21. 21 Education % 25 and over with BA Degree Washington 2005-09

22. 22 Education/Poverty Percent of Persons 25 and over Living in Poverty by Educational Attainment, Washington State: 2005

23. 23 Implications Continued population growth in state even with economic downturn -- aging of baby boom, attractiveness of state, more diversified economy. Need for more schools, housing, utilities, roads/public transportation. Careful planning can minimize costs also need to insure that developers pay for costs of infrastructure and development. Rapid growth in “young old” (under 85) population likely to be dispersed, increased traffic congestion. Need growing for qualified health care and other workers experienced in working with older adults.

24. 24 Implications All non-white populations younger than White (not Hispanic) population and growing more rapidly. More non-whites replacing retiring White workers. But still have high rates of poverty, low levels of education for non-white families and children All children need quality education through high school, need to contain continually rising costs of college education. Increase in income inequality makes it more difficult to provide equal access to education for all income groups.