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DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011. 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record export year –China Expanding Markets –Pacific.

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Presentation on theme: "DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011. 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record export year –China Expanding Markets –Pacific."— Presentation transcript:

1 DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011

2 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record export year –China Expanding Markets –Pacific Rim Countries –Expanded Capacity of PNW Myco-toxins

3 Supply

4 U.S. DDG Production and Exports

5 DDG Balance Table 2006- 072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12 Carryin (Sep 1) Production13,95121,29426,42233,25337,31837,696 Imports191145251409550 Total Supply14,14221,43926,67333,66237,86838,246 Domestic Use12,36117,51821,70425,37829,86829,246 Exports1,7803,9214,9698,2838,5009,000 Total Use14,14121,43926,67333,66138,36838,246 Carryout (Aug 31) Export ratio12.8%18.4%18.8%24.9%22.8%23.9% X 1,000 Metric Tons

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7 Demand Outlook

8 U.S. Cattle on Feed

9 U.S. Swine Industry Mycotoxin issues limited inclusion in 2010 Many buyers need to use DDG to profit from feeding at all Average inclusion of 30% in finishing rations, and 50% in gestation and lactation rations Recent usage at 60% in finishing rations

10 US Swine Industry Fastest growing user of DDG High priced corn and soybean meal persuades producers to higher inclusion rates $ per pound of gain DDG valued for its protein, energy, phosphorus, and intestinal health benefits

11 USDA U.S. Swine Industry

12 Pro Exporter

13 Exports

14 U.S. DDG Production and Exports

15 Export Table Country2009 YR2010 YR Jan/Mar 2010 Jan/Mar 2011 % Change Net Change World Total5,650,9648,998,0461,872,7922,019,8768147,084 China542,4242,528,697335,311323,414-4-11,897 Mexico1,458,4351,644,641439,485506,0241566,539 Canada819,7431,021,185254,205218,721-14-35,484 South Korea269,854506,475157,24770,797-55-86,450 Vietnam250,638431,133110,845118,10877,263 Turkey377,707395,22014,16027,2299213,069 Thailand297,545291,36453,53580,3315026,796 Ireland100,623275,06884,57766,726-21-17,851 Indonesia200,741252,08052,50550,309-42,196 Japan221,800217,53659,00157,949-2-1,052 In Metric Tons

16 FOB US GULF & CORN PRICES US Grains Council

17 China 2010 Imports up 466% from 2009 2011 Imports currently down 4% Anti-Dumping Lawsuit against U.S. producers At current pace China will import 50% less than 2010

18 Mexico 2010 Imports up 11% Current 2011 imports up 18% High priced corn and freight advantage Lack of gulf demand led to increase export numbers Sorghum planting down 5%

19 Canada Consistently top 3 importer of DDG Imported 819,743 tons 2009 2010 imported 1,021,085 tons –Up 24% from 2009

20 Exports Cont. South Korea –2010 Imports up 187% –Hoof and Mouth Disease 2011 imports down 55% Turkey –2010 imports up 5% –2011 up 92% –High growth potential GMO issues

21 Product Transparency Know what you are buying Weekly nutrient profile testing Get more out of your purchase

22 Product Transparency

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25 Anticipated Specifications of Great Falls DDGS 36% to 42% protein 4% to 6% fat More Complete Amino Acid Profile Better handling Characteristics than corn DDGS

26 Ethanol

27 Copyright 2011 DTN/The Progressive Farmer (A Telvent Brand). Reprinted by Permission

28 Ethanol Production Margins

29 Thank You www.ddgs.umn.edu


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