2. 2014 OUTLOOK Ray Grabanski Progressive Ag Fargo, ND Trading futures and options involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3. North Dakota Marketing Year Average Price Year Spring Wheat SoyeansCorn 1971-20061.30 - 4.712.87 - 7.371.00 - 3.16 20077.459.634.06 20087.199.713.74 20094.909.263.18 20106.7810.905.01 20118.1711.905.81 20128.1914.006.46

4. 2013 – IN REVIEW Jan-13Dec-13Change Chi Wht H7.78006.0500-22.2% Chi Wht N7.94006.1700-22.3% KC Wht H8.31006.4000-23.0% KC Wht N8.2700 6.4300-22.2% Mpls Wht H8.6500 6.3500-26.6% Mpls Wht U8.95006.6600-25.6%

5. 2013 – IN REVIEW Jan-13Dec-13Change Corn H6.98004.2200-39.5% Corn Z5.86004.5000-23.2% Soybean H14.190013.1200-7.5% Soybean X13.030011.3500-12.9% Soybean Oil H49.1638.82-21.0% Soybean Meal H420.60437.704.1%

6. 2013 – IN REVIEW Jan-13Dec-13Change Live Cattle G129.900134.5003.5% Feeder Cattle F151.400166.70010.1% Lean Hog G85.72085.420-0.3%

7. 2013 – IN REVIEW Jan-13Dec-13Change GOLD G1677.101201.90-28.3% Silver H30.3819.34-36.3% Copper G3.643.44-5.5% Platinum F1538.701371.10-10.9% Palladium H717.40702.65-2.1%

8. 2013 – IN REVIEW Jan-13Dec-13Change Crude Oil G91.7998.427.2% RBOB G2.812.79-0.9% Heating Oil G3.053.081.1% Ethanol G2.191.91-12.7% Natural Gas G3.374.2325.6%

9. 2013 – IN REVIEW Jan-13Dec-13Change Dow Jones H13070.0016494.0026.2% S&P 500 H1422.501841.1029.4% Nasdaq H2652.003584.0035.1% Dollar79.8880.320.6% CRB Index313.37277.68-11.4%

10. Stocks Breakout to New Highs

11. 10 year Monthly DJIA

12. CORN

13. Corn’s Issues Bigger than expected crop (158.8 bu) Demand Exports started poor/cancellation/improving Ethanol pace slowing EPA changing RFS 1.6 Million less Soft Red Acres

15. Corn Exports To Date SalesShipmentsUSDA 2012.5380.312.731 20131.32 60.0/week 1.8/3.12 BB 0.574 26.1/week 783/1.357 1.6 22 weeks into corn’s marketing year, 30 weeks to go Sales need to average 9.3/Shipments 34.2

16. Corn Category 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Supply Beginning Stocks1,6731,7081,1289898211,481 Production13,09212,44712,36010,78013,92513,871 Imports8 28291623515 Total Supply14,77414,18213,51711,93214,78115,367 Use Food, Seed, Ind.1,3701,4071,4281,3961,4001,425 Ethanol4,5915,0195,0004,6485,0004,600 Feed and Residual5,1254,7954,5574,3355,3005,000 Exports1,9801,8341,5437311,6001,750 Total Use13,06613,05512,52811,11113,30012,775 Ending Stocks1,7081,1289898211,4812,592 Stocks/Use Ratio13.18.67.97.411.120.3 5 Year Average 11.2 Planted Acres86.488.291.997.295.492.5 Harvested Acres79.581.484.087.487.785.1 Yield Per Acre (Bu.)164.7152.8147.2123.4158.8163.0 Average Price3.555.186.226.894.503.35

17. USDA 2014 L-R Projections n 93.5 million acres, 86.1 hvstd. n 165.6 bu/acre yield n 14.26 billion bu crop n Ethanol 4.9 billion bu. n 2.6 billion carryout ($3.65) n But reduce 400 mb since Nov. (2.2 B)

18. USDA 10 yr. projections n 2014-2018: $3.30-$3.65 n 2019-2024: $3.75-$4.20 n B/E now is $4.14 n Target Price is now $3.70

19. Monthly corn: Consolidation?

20. Weekly Chart: Bottoming???

21. Mar 14 Corn: $4.45 sell July

22. Dec 14 Corn: $4.65/$5.35?

28. SAM Weather

32. SOYBEAN

33. Soybean Issues South America: Brazil: huge acres, 5 to 8% increase, early harvest good, getting hot south Argentina: hot dry conditions/improving US demand impressively strong Crush demand very strong meal demand main reason Exports very strong but China has huge

34. Soybean Exports To Date SalesShipmentsUSDA 20121.251.011.32 20131.58 71.8/week 2.15/3.73 BB 1.16 52.7/week 1.58/2.74 BB 1.51 22 weeks into corn’s marketing year, 30 weeks to go Sales are over expectations/Shipments need 11.7

35. Soybean Export Destinations

36. Soybeans Category09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Supply Beginning Stocks138151215169141150 Production3,3593,3293,0943,0343,2893,484 Imports151416363015 Total Supply3,5123,4953,3253,2393,4593,649 Use Crush1,7521,6481,7031,6891,7001,750 Exports1,4991,5011,3651,3201,5101,550 Seed and Feed908790898790 Residual2043-211225 Total Use3,3613,2803,1553,0993,3093,415 Ending Stocks151215169141150234 Stocks/Use Ratio4.56.65.44.5 6.9 5 Year Average 5.2 Planted Acres77.577.475.077.276.579.5 Harvested Acres76.476.673.876.275.978.3 Yield Per Acre (Bu.)44.043.541.939.843.344.5 Average Price9.5911.3012.5014.4012.7010.35

37. USDA Baseline 2014 no’s n 78 million acres n 45.2 bu/acre yield n 3.480 billion bu crop n 203 million bu carryout ($9.75) But reduced 20 mb after Nov. (183)

38. USDA 10 yr. projections n 2014-2021: $8.85 to $9.75 n 2022-2024: $9.95 - $10.15 n Target price is $8.40

39. Soybean Monthly: Downside Risk?

40. Weekly: Consolidation???

41. Mar 14 Sbns: inverted, sell

42. Nov 14 Sbns: $11.65/$12.35

45. Check Out Our Website www.progressiveag.com Daily Comments: User name: daily Password: heart Weekly Comments: User name: weekly Password: superbowl randy@progressiveag.com rwww.progressiveag.com

46. WHEAT

47. Wheat’s Issues - US US Winter Wheat going into dormancy at very good condition Exports started strong, slowing due to strong dollar Winter Wheat crop high quality Spring Wheat average quality, discounts Oct/Nov/Dec Crop Production Report BEARISH, not expected

48. Wheat’s Issues - US US Winter Wheat Crop Condition Rating KS: 63% G/E58%35% OK: 77% G/E63%36% TX: 32% G/E 38/35/37%19% CO: 55% G/E 18 States: 62% G/E Last Year: 33% G/E

49. Winter Wheat Acres Down State20072008200920102011201220132014 KS10.409.609.308.608.809.409.508.80-7% TX6.205.806.405.405.305.706.20 0% OK5.905.605.705.205.105.405.605.30-5% MT2.242.602.552.002.252.302.002.5025% CO2.502.152.602.402.302.352.302.9026% IL1.001.200.850.350.800.660.880.74-15% IN0.420.580.470.300.430.350.470.43-9% NE2.051.751.701.501.521.381.471.502% OH0.821.121.010.800.880.500.690.63-9% Total45.0146.3143.3137.1040.6541.2043.1041.90-3%

50. WW Acres

51. Wheat Exports To Date SalesShipmentsUSDA 20120.7720.5991.007 20130.981 28.0/week 476 MB/1.46 0.811 23.2/week 394 MB/1.21 1.175 35 weeks into marketing year, 17 weeks to go Sales need average 11.4/Shipments 21.4

52. Wheat Category 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Supply Beginning Stocks657976862743718558 Production2,2182,2071,9992,2662,1302,366 Imports11997112123170120 Total Supply2,9933,2792,9743,1313,0183,044 Use Food919926941945960950 Seed697176737475 Feed and Residual150132162388250275 Exports8791,2891,0511,0071,1751,200 Total Use2,0182,4172,2312,4142,4592,500 Ending Stocks Total Ending Stocks976862743718558544 Stocks/Use Ratio48.435.733.329.722.721.8 10 Year Average 28.5 Planted Acres59.253.654.455.756.257.5 Harvested Acres49.947.645.748.945.252.0 Yield Per Acre (Bu.)44.546.343.746.347.245.5 Average Price4.875.707.247.776.806.50

53. 2014 USDA Baseline no’s n 57 million acres, 48.5 hvstd. n 45.8 bu/acre n 2.220 billion bu production n 642 million bu carryout ($4.90) Only 7 mb reduction since Nov. (635)

54. USDA 10 yr. projections n 2014-2020: $4.30 - $4.90 n 2021-2024: $4.90-$5.35 n Target Price is $5.50 in new farm bill

55. Mar Mpls: $6.95/$7.35 sell

56. Sept 14 Mpls: $7.00/$7.35