1. Global Cotton Market Outlook Zeki SahinBCI Istanbul – 13.10.14

2. Topics: Paul Reinhart AG Supply / Demand situation Technical analysis Outlook

3. About us: Reinhart is a leading worldwide cotton merchant founded in 1788 Headquarter in Winterthur / Switzerland Family owned company (7th Generation) Annual turnover about 500’000ts (lint) Involved in sustainably produced cotton (BCI, CMIA, Fair Trade, Organic) / 4–5 % of turnover

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18. US Dollar Index, daily, 1 year back 18

19. 19 Cotton futures most active month continuation, monthly, 30 years back

20. 20 Cotton futures most active month continuation, weekly, 5 years back

21. 21 Cotton futures most active month continuation, daily, 1 year back

22. Market Outlook season 2014/15: China: watch the government policy, imports will be reduced, less quotas available, support price for farmers remains high, competitiveness of mills remains challenging. Producers do not like current prices and seek for governmental support (China, India (MSP), USA (USDA Loan program), Greece (EU subsidy), Brazil and others). Prices are close to production cost. Record ending world stocks, see Supply and Demand table. Speculators are slightly short. They can change position fast (they prefer the long side). Exterior factors: - health of global economy?, - stronger US Dollar, - end of zero interest policy? - Commodity prices under pressure, - war in Syria, Irak. Mainly negative…

23. Cotton Prices for 2014/15 Expect more pressure on prices in general Expect a narrow range of price fluctuation Expect an increase in global cotton consumption Harvesting and ginning accelerates in the coming weeks, which will increase availability Support program of governments for farmers may take off temporary supply of raw material Hand to mouth buying for mills will continue Watch planting intentions in spring 2015 BCI cotton will increase market share…

24. THANK YOU! http://www.reinhart.com