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Grain Market Update / Strategy West Midlands Group 7 March 2014 Ryan Duane Farmanco www.farmanco.com.au
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FARMANCO Disclaimer Farmanco Marketing Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 341189 of Primary Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 338360). Don McTaggart (No. 298483), Ryan Duane (No. 407412), and Mae Connelly (No. 315016) are Authorised Representatives of Primary Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 338360). General Advice Disclaimer The information and opinions within this document are of a general nature only and do not take into account the particular needs or individual circumstances of investors. The Material does not constitute any investment recommendation or advice nor does it constitute legal or taxation advice. Primary Financial Services Pty Ltd (ABN 37 136 347 610) (The Licensee) does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or otherwise of the information and opinions contained herein and to the maximum extent permissible by law, accepts no liability in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damages suffered as a result of reliance on such information or opinions. The Licensee does not endorse any third parties that may have provided information included in the Material.
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FARMANCO Agenda Market update WA Harvest Summary Strategy Questions
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FARMANCO Market Update
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FARMANCO WA Harvest
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FARMANCO WA Harvest
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FARMANCO WA Harvest
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FARMANCO Shipping capacity in WA PortProduction (mmt)Annual Capacity (mmt) ALBANY 3.62.4 (150%) ESPERANCE 2.72.0 (135%) GERALDTON 2.02.4 (83%) KWINANA** 7.55.4 (100%)
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FARMANCO WA Harvest
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FARMANCO Basis
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FARMANCO Strategy 1.Are prices profitable 2.Are prices “good” or “bad”? 3.Market outlook 4.How much time do you have? 5.Products that fit
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FARMANCO Wheat Chart
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FARMANCO Wheat Frequency Table
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FARMANCO Feed Barley chart
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FARMANCO Feed Barley Frequency
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FARMANCO Canola chart
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FARMANCO Canola Frequency
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FARMANCO Products “ Good” prices -Happy to risk prices going higher later to lock in profitable price now -CASH or SWAPS “Bad” prices -Happy to risk downside for hope of upside later -POOLS -WAREHOUSE (or no sales) -OPTIONS / SWAPS (eg basis)
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FARMANCO Strategy Forward SalesHarvest SalesPost-Harvest Sales Take production risk if prices profitable enough to justify Sell if prices profitable or historically high Or for cash flow… Hold grain if -Market view bullish longer term -Harvest prices historically low
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FARMANCO Thank You Questions? Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter www.farmanco.com.au
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FARMANCO Wheat S & D Australia
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FARMANCO 13/14 ALB Basis
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FARMANCO 12/13 ALB Basis
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FARMANCO 11/12 ALB Basis
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FARMANCO 10/11 ALB Basis
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FARMANCO 09/10 ALB Basis
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FARMANCO POOL Performance SeasonHarvest Cash ($/t FIS) MarketFinal Pool Result ($/t FIS) 2009/10$225 Rallied $100/t over life of pools in 2010 $225 2010/11$350 Prices fell significantly $320 2011/12$240 Rallied significantly over 2012 $240
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