2. Advanced Economics Week #5 Spring 2012

3. Advanced Economics 4/23/12 http://mrmilewski.com OBJECTIVE: Examine the business cycle. I. Journal#14pt.A -Watch the following: -IMF's Lagarde: Global Economy Sees 'Dark Clouds on the Horizon'IMF's Lagarde: Global Economy Sees 'Dark Clouds on the Horizon' II. Journal#14pt.B -notes on business cycles Notice: Parent Teacher Conference Thursday April 26 th Notice: Chapter#10&13 Test Friday April 27 th Notice: 29 Days until the Senior’s Last Day!

4. The Business Cycle Business cycle - the rise and fall of GDP over time. GDP – Gross Domestic Product GDP= C+I+G+(X-M) C – consumer I – business G – government X – exports M - imports

5. Phases of the Business Cycle Ch#14 sec#1 p.376

6. The Recession Phase of the Business Cyc le There are two phases of the business cycle Recession – when real GDP declines for two quarters in a row (6 months) A recession begins following a peak Peak – the point where GDP stops going up A recession ends at a trough Trough – the turnaround point where GDP stops going down.

7. The Expansion Phase of the Business Cycle Expansion – period of recovery from a recession. Expansion begins at the trough of the business cycle. Expansion ends when the business cycle reaches a new peak. Since WWII, the average recession lasted 11 months. The average expansion lasted 43 months. The expansion that began in March 1991 & almost ended in March 2001 is the longest in history. (1 st and 3 rd quarters of 2001 GDP dropped)

8. http://www.willisms.com/archives/stronggdpgrowth.gif

9. The End of the Depression Massive government spending during World War II added a huge stimulant to the economy for most of the early 1940s. Recession returned in 1945, but it did not last. As soon as the war was over, consumers went on a buying binge that stimulated expansion again. Since 1965, there has been a recurring pattern of recessions and expansions. After 1980, however, recessions occurred less frequently. The expansion that began in 1991 was the longest expansion in United States history. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SXPdlLy0TpI/AAAAAAAAPP4/YFm4rhv0rSU/s400/090118-nd-unemployment.jpg

10. Why Business Cycles? No one theory seems to explain past business cycles, or serves as a way to predict future ones. Changes in capital expenditures are one cause of business cycles. When the economy is expanding, businesses expect future sales to be high, so they invest heavily in capital goods. After a while, businesses may decide they have expanded enough and they begin to pull back on their capital investments. http://granitegrok.com/pix/US_GDP_Growth.jpg

11. Inventory Adjustments & Innovation Inventory adjustments, or changes in the level of business inventories, are a second possible cause of business cycles Some businesses cut back on inventories at the first sign of an economic slowdown and then build them back up again at the first sign of an upturn When a business innovates, it often gains an edge on its competitors because its costs go down or its sales go up The imitating companies must invest heavily to do this, and an investment boom follows http://images.businessweek.com/mz/07/13/0713_30busout.gif

12. Monetary Policy A fourth possible cause of business cycles is the credit and loan policies of the Federal Reserve System. When “easy money” policies are in effect, interest rates are low and loans are easy to get. Eventually the increased demand for loans causes interest rates to rise, which in turn discourages new borrowers. As borrowing and spending slow down, the level of economic activity declines.

13. Advanced Economics 4/24/12 http://mrmilewski.com OBJECTIVE: Examine the business cycle. I. Journal#15pt.A -Watch the following: -Social Security Slated to Run Dry in 2033, Trustees WarnSocial Security Slated to Run Dry in 2033, Trustees Warn II. Journal#15pt.B -notes on types of unemployment Notice: Parent Teacher Conference Thursday April 26 th Notice: Chapter#10&13 Test Friday April 27 th Notice: 28 Days until the Senior’s Last Day!

14. Frictional Unemployment Unemployment caused by workers in between jobs for any reason. This type of unemployment is a minor problem because these people are short term unemployed. Examples: New people entering the labor force People who left their old jobs to find new jobs P. 384

15. Structural Unemployment Unemployment that occurs when a job becomes obsolete or the demand for that job falls. Serious type of unemployment Examples: When people stopped buying buggies and started buying cars When employers become leaner and meaner P.385

16. Cyclical Unemployment Unemployment directly related to swings in the business cycle. Serious, but end when business cycle returns to expansion. Examples: Automotive industry during the last recession Home building during the last recession P.386

17. Seasonal Unemployment Unemployment resulting from changes in weather conditions on certain products Difference between seasonal and cyclical is the period of measurement Cyclical occurs over several quarters or years. Seasonal takes place every year regardless of the health of the economy. Examples: Concrete laborers in northern U.S. cities Farm laborers P. 386

18. Technological Unemployment Unemployment caused when workers with less skill, talent, or education are replaced by machines or other equipment that does their jobs. P.386

19. Advanced Economics 4/25/12 http://mrmilewski.com OBJECTIVE: Examine various concepts in Microeconomics. I. Administrative Stuff -attendance II. Journal#16 -notes on film: -Standard Deviants-Macroeconomics Notice: Parent Teacher Conference Tomorrow Notice: Chapter#10&13 Test Friday April 27 th Notice: 27 Days until the Senior’s Last Day!

20. Advanced Economics 4/26/12 http://mrmilewski.com OBJECTIVE: Review for Chapter#10&13 Test. I. Administrative Stuff -attendance II. Review for Chapter#10&13 Test -test over 10.4, 13.2, 13.3,&13.4: Notice: Parent Teacher Conference Today 12:30- 3PM Notice: Chapter#10&13 Test Tomorrow April 27 th Notice: 26 Days until the Senior’s Last Day!

21. Schedule Thursday 4/26/12 1st hour 7:41 – 8:15 am 2nd hour 8:20 – 8:54 am 3rd hour 8:59 – 9:33 am 4th hour 9:38 – 10:12 am 5th hour 10:17 – 10:51 am

22. Advanced Economics 4/27/12 http://mrmilewski.com OBJECTIVE: Demonstrate mastery of Chapter#10&13. I. Administrative Stuff -attendance II. Chapter#10&13 Test -test over 10.4, 13.2, 13.3,&13.4: III. Textbook Collection Notice: 25 Days until the Senior’s Last Day!