1. CAN ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS BE USED IN FORWARD-LOOKING STUDIES? O. Da Costa, R. Cachia, R. Compañó Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies Joint Research Centre / European Commission E-41092 SEVILLA Second International FTA Seville Seminar September 2006

2. Overview  Online Social Networks (OSN):  A new social phenomenon  A new communication tool  OSN for detecting changing social patterns  OSN Communities on Foresight  Assets & Limitation A graph showing typical network of friends in Orkut compiled by Orkut2dot

3. What are online social networks (OSN)?  OSN is a group that primarily interacts via the internet.  As online communities, they are self-organised electronic networks organised around a shared interest or purpose [Rheingold, 1993].  Significant socio-technical change has resulted from the proliferation of OSNs. Networking by chain effect: « friends » connect with « friends-of-friends » who connect with « friends-of- friends-of-friends » Figure by J. Layton

4. Communitieso f interest Tools for Network communication Networking « Friends » OSNs: Characteristics Member’s Profile Example: Orkut

5. Orkut: An OSN Case Study  Philosophy:  Organically growing network of trusted “friends“  Membership by invitation-only  Features - members can:  introduce profiles (photo, hobbies, academic data, etc.)  join discussions or create their own  “rank” and write testimonials about others  Exponential Growth: Jan 2004 created Feb 2004: 100 000 July 2004: 1.000.000 Apr 2005: 5.000.000 Jan 2006: 12.000.000 Sep 2006: 29.000.000

6. OSN: Members Age Structure  Are they a representative selection of group who will be the “shakers and movers” in 20 years from now?  Do OSN reveal novel patterns amongst youngsters that may persist in a wider social scale?  Can we detect already: future change in social patterns or future visions (networked society)? Orkut Feb 2006 Member are mostly young people in the18-25 age bracket with quite a gender balance.

7. OSN: A reflection of new social patterns?  Contacting, communicating and keeping in touch  Novel spaces for communicating and interaction  Difficulties in making yourself heard due to information overload  Changing Relations  Roles of media?  Collective collaboration  Networking across geographical locations  Influencing power?

8. How to detect signals of change?  Systematic screening networks needed. Possible selection criteria  Size of networks  Level of activity  Area of activity  Data-mining of relational databases

9. OSN: Assets  Relatively high motivation for voluntary Contribution  Anticipated Reciprocity, Increased Reputation, Sense of efficacy, Communication* and Mutual trust)  Cost  Relatively low with respect to alternative communication tools  Flexibility  New communities can be created any time  No geographical bounders * The Economies of Online Cooperation: Gifts and Public Goods in Cyberspace, 1999, Peter Kollock

10. OSN: Some Limitations  Automatic screening procedure difficult:  Large networks  Data may be incoherent, contradictory, incomplete or non- codified  Role of coordinator is limited  Intrinsic time delay (people to not respond immediately) and an "open-ended character".  Profiles may not always be reliable  Privacy concerns  Spamming and bugging might influence results  Geographical bias (66.3% of Orkut members from Brasil)

11. Join our OSN Foresight Community ! “Foresight & Future Studies”, Orkut, www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=143886 Disclaimer: the authors have no relation or interest in the social network application selected for this undertaking.

12. Other online tools with potential for Foresight

13. Growth of Online Social Networks  Orkut  MySpace  Flickr  YouTube

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15. Conclusion  OSN  New social phenomenon  Powerful large-scale communication tool  Currently being researched for marketing, investigation in social sciences and other  Objective of this presentation  Initiate debate about the potential of OSN in forward-looking studies  Further work required  In-depth investigation of limits, advantages and drawbacks  A tested research framework, which could be used as an analytical tool to conduct forward-looking studies  Various research methodologies and complementary approaches should be taken into consideration  Too early for assessing their potential, but prospects appear promising