1. Fourth Joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys EU-wide business survey in the financial service sector Brussels, 12th October 2009

2. Extension of business surveys to the financial service sector Importance of financial services sector for the development of the overall economy EU-wide monthly survey among managers 10 European countries covered Main Objectives Provide useful information enabling to evaluate the development of the value-added and expectations of operators Pilot phase: period of evaluation, between April 2006 and March 2007 Main Phase: April 2007 – March 2011 Context & Objectives

3. Survey Design & Methodology

4. A robust and homogeneous methodology across countries  Guarantee representative results for the euro area and the EU as a whole  Repeat the survey in the same way each month  Obtain sufficient samples of completed interviews  detailed analysis  Ensure comparability of results over time Population  Senior managers in sectors 65, 66,67 (NACE)  Countries: DE, ES, FR, LUX, IT, NL, UK, PL, HU and CZ Sampling  Recruitment of a panel of respondents: (initial panel, approx. 2,400 people)  Telephone recruitment  Source: business directory, updated regularly  good approximation of the Universe  Objective: 300-600 completed interviews each month during the whole year Key Methodological Components

5. Questionnaire Content Standard questionnaire  Repeated every month  Topics: overall business situation, demand for services and employment Quarterly questions  Asked in April, July, October, November  Topics: operating income/expenses, profitability, capital expenditure, fees charged for the services and competitive position Scale questions : increase / remain unchanged / decrease Questionnaire translated into national languages Respondent can choose the language of the questionnaire

6. CATI-Web technology Panel: telephone recruitment Survey process STEP 1 E-mail invitation + link to online questionnaire STEP 2 Reminder Questionnaire completion STEP 3 STEP 4

7. Sample sizes and response rate A response rate of 24% on average (min: 17% and max: 29%) is encouraging and in line with expectations

8. Non-response  From the moment of the recruitment and the actual invitation, people may have change their minds  Some people may not have time to access the questionnaire during the fieldwork period  Concerns about confidentiality and publication of the results  In some cases, invitation e-mails are blocked by the company’s firewall  Operators not motivated to respond to several waves  Crisis:  Increasing mobility of operators  Reluctance to give out information about company Reasons Measures  Letter signed by DG ECFIN explaining the scope of the survey  Regular contacts by phone or e-mail, in order to:  Some people were sent in advance the questionnaire in Word format, in order to:  Reassure them about the content of questions  Get agreement of their hierarchy  Prospect of having access to the survey results  Ask referral to panellist who wants to drop off

9. Results: monthly questions

10. Overall business situation

11. Demand for the company’s services

12. Expectations in terms of demand for company’s services

13. Employment in the financial service sector

14. Expectations in terms of employment

15. Conclusions Coherence/stability of the survey results:  Signs of quality of the sampling design  The questionnaire do not seem to pose any problem of misinterpretation/misunderstanding Sensitive indicator Encouraging response rate in line with expectations For the next waves: continue the close monitoring of the fieldwork and anticipate any problem that might cause a decrease in response rate (e.g. lower motivation of respondents due to the participation to several survey waves)

16. Thank you for your kind attention IPSOS Belgium Head Office: Kroonlaan 159-164 1050 Brussels – Belgium Operation Office: Waterloo Business Park Drève Richelle 161, bât. J 1410 Waterloo Phone 32-2-642.47.11 Fax 32-2-648.34.08 E-mail info@ipsos.be