Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byArron Cannon Modified over 9 years ago
1
1 Dell Inc. - still a growth company? Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005
2
2 Outline Company Facts Portfolio Position Business Strategy – key tenets Segmentation by product & geographical Industry – current developments Stock Facts Valuation Recommendation
3
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 3 History 1984Michael Dell founds Dell Computer Corporation simple concept: selling computer systems directly to customers 1987International expansion -> opening of subsidary in UK 1988IPO (3.5m shares at $8,50 each) 1989Company introduces first notebook computer 1990Opened manufacturing center in Limerick, Irland -> serve European, Middle Eastern and African Markets 1993Joins ranks of the top-5 computer system makers worldwide 1997Dell introduces its first workstation systems 1998Dell introduces its PowerVault storage products 2000Company sales via Internet reach $50 million per day 2001For the first time, Dell ranks No. 1 in global market share 2003Dell enters consumer electronics
4
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 4 Company Facts Headquarter: Round Rock, Texas Chairman of the Board: Michael Dell CEO, President: Kevin B. Rollins Revenues last four quarters: $54,182m Net Income last four quarters: $3,565m Broad range of products & services –Enterprise systems (servers, storage, workstations, networking products) –Client systems (notebook, desktop computer systems) –Printing and imaging systems, software and peripherals and global services Employees: 63,700 Financial Year End: January
5
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 5 Portfolio Position Bought 500 shares at 41.75 on 12/10/99 Cost of position: $20,875.00 Closing price 11/30/05: $30.151 Value of position: $15,075.50 Change: -$5,799.50 (-27.78%) Reviewed on December 2002 and November 2004 (Hold) % of Portfolio: 5.31% Jack Henry and Macrovision are also in the Technology Sector
6
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 6 Business Strategy – key tenets (I) Direct relationship is the most efficent way to the customer Dell‘s „direct business model“ eliminates wholesale and retail dealers No expenditures associated with the retail channel constant flow of information about customers’ plans and requirements enable Dell to continually refine its product offerings Custom-built products and custom-tailored services Build-to-order manufacturing process Turn over inventory every 4 days on average and reduce inventory levels Rapidly introduce the latest relevant technology Rapidly pass on component cost savings directly to customers
7
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 7 Business Strategy – key tenets (II) Low-cost leader Efficient supply chain management and manufacturing organization Concentration on standards-based technologies Direct business model Pass those savings to its customers A single point of accountability for its customers Offers an array of services Standards-based technologies deliver the best value to customers Provide customers with flexibility and choice Benefit of extensive research and development
8
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 8 Sales & Marketing Channels of Distribution Sales representatives Telephone-based sales Online sales through www.dell.com Marketing programs for specific customer groups Large business & institutional customers Field sales force, account teams (system engineers and consultants) Small-to-medium business & consumers Advertising on television, Internet, print media and by mailing publications Dell Direct Stores: view Dell products in person and purchase with assistance Goverment, healthcare and education market Specific sales and marketing programs
9
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 9 Manufacturing, Materials Supply & R&D Manufacturing Build-to-order manufacturing process Process consists of assembly, software installation, functional testing and quality control Locations: US(3), Brazil, Ireland, Malaysia, China Materials Supply Large number of suppliers BUT Intel Corporation as a sole source supplier of processors and Microsoft sole source supplier for various operating systems and application software products R&D Very low expenses: $464m for fiscal 2005 (0.94% of Revenue) HP (4.3%), IBM (5.9%), Sun (16.3%) Company uses partners (e.g. Intel, Microsoft, EMC, Lexmark) to develop technology
10
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 10 Segmentation by product & services categories Beginning Q1-FY06 supplemental revenue reporting by product & services Q3-FY 06 (total revenue: $13.9 billion) Desktop PC‘s still most important, but decreasing
11
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 11 Segmentation by product & services categories Beginning Q1-FY06 supplemental revenue reporting by product & services Q3-FY 06 (total revenue: $13.9 billion) Desktop PC‘s still most important, but decreasing
12
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 12 Geographical Segmentation
13
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 13 Geographical Segmentation
14
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 14 Dell‘s Market Share PC‘s* Based upon IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker
15
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 15 Industry – current developments (source: report Mintel cooperation) Demand for Mobility First time in April 2005 laptop sales surpassed desktop sales Increasing broadbrand penetration Consumer use their computer more and more for multimedia activities Declining Prices Increasing number of units shipped, but declining overall revenues Average computer prices fell nearly 35% between 2000 and 2005 Prices have continued to fall, especially laptop prices Low Cost – defining aspect of competition Most important advertising in newspapers circulars Chinese imports continue to grow leading computer equipment importer to the U.S. From $11.9 billion (2002) to 29.5 billion (2004) +147.9% Lenovo, a chinese company, bought IBM‘s PC division in early 2005 Municipal wireless infrastructure drives notebook sales 100+ cities implementing wireless infrastructure 1000+/- cities working on plans for wireless Internet networks
16
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 16 Industry – US Home Computer market forecast
17
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 17 Share Buyback YTD have repurchased 138 million shares More than 3x the stock options Dell expect to grant for the full year Plan to spend at least $1.7 billion in Q4 Will continue in the future, because Dell has a high Free Cash Flow, but very few investment opportunities OR Dell will start to pay dividends
18
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 18 SWOT – a overview Leading market position Notable clientele (large companies, state goverments) Superior business model Strong operating performance Cash Cow No traditional pension plans Partnership with Microsoft (creating single tool managing hardware and software) Leading market position Notable clientele (large companies, state goverments) Superior business model Strong operating performance Cash Cow No traditional pension plans Partnership with Microsoft (creating single tool managing hardware and software) Single source suppliers Low R&D spending Poor customer service Problems in China Single source suppliers Low R&D spending Poor customer service Problems in China INDUSTRY Growth in the digital color printer maket Sale of IBM‘s PC Business to Lenovo (Europe/US) Trend to more modular, standard products and clusters of less expensive machines (server&storage) COMPANY Printer Replacement business Expansion of product portfolio (consumer electronics) International Expansion Entering new markets through partnership INDUSTRY Decreasing PC prices Desktops revenues will decrease heaviley until 2010 Porter‘s five forces: - High Industry Rivalry - High Bargaining Power of Buyer New CEO at HP -> cost reducing Sale of IBM‘s PC Business to Lenovo (Asia) Asian „No-Name“ producer Increasing component prices S OT W
19
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 19 Competitors
20
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 20 Share price: $30.15 (52-Week range $28.62-$42.57) Market cap: $72.29B Trailing P/E: 23.32 Forward P/E (fye 28-Jan-07) :16.94 Dell has never paid a dividend Sector: Technology Industry: Personal Computers % held by Insiders: 9.85% % held by Institutions: 65.5% Ticker: DELL Stock Facts Source: Yahoo!Finance 11/30/05
21
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 21 Stock Performance last 5 years
22
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 22 Stock Performance last 2 years vs Competitors Vs: Hewlett Packard, IBM, Gateway
23
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 23 Valuation - Beta
24
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 24 Valuation – 3 Scenarios Verification of Forecast and Assumptions of Segments by: Calculating ratios Computing Implied Growth rates of Geographical segments Reviewing sales development
25
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 25 Valuation – sensitivity analysis (normal)
26
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 26 RECOMMENDATION - Considerations Source: Yahoo!Finance 11/30/05 HOLD largest geographical segment (American Business Units) growing and operating margin increases Growth opportunities outside the US Still superior business strategy Expansion to higher margin products (printer replacement, storage&servers, business customer…) Share buyback Almost no debt After the decrease in the stock price, lower growth rates are partially contained in the price SELL Other geographical segments only flat or negative Operating income growth Problems in China, UK… Increasing rivalry by Asian companies pricewar desktops and mobility products, which are almost two thirds of the revenue no further investment opportunities No long term-guidance of the company historic high double digit growth rates are improbable
27
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 27 RECOMMENDATION - SELL SELL the entire position of Dell shares (500) DCF only slightly above actual share price High level of uncertainty about Dell futures –Diversification of product portfolio and further expansion outside the US CAN be successful, but it MUST be successful to maintain high growth rates –No guidance of the company for next year Still a growing company, but the high growth rates of the past are improbable If we follow our investment approach, there are better companies to own
28
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 28 Question & Comments
29
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 29 Desktop Products Desktop Computers Optiplex line: corporate, institutional and small business customers Dimension line: small businesses and home users Desktop Workstation Precision Line: professional users demand exceptional performance Cash-cow/ mature business (especially in the US) No. 1 Desktops Worldwide market share: 18,7% (Q2-CY05) Q2 Growth-Rate: 2% Unit Growth-Rate: 17%
30
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 30 Notebook Computers (majority of revenues in this segment) Latitude line: addresses business & organizational needs Inspiron line: small-medium sized businesses, individuals No. 1 worldwide: Market share: 18,5% (Q2-CY05) Mobile Workstation Precision Line: professional users demand exceptional performance MP3-Player (DJ’s) & PDA (Axims) MP3-Player Notebooks selling much faster than desktops Mobility Q2 Growth-Rate: 20% Unit Growth-Rate: 47%
31
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 31 Software & Peripherals Dell Branded Printers, monitors, plasma and LCD television, projectors Third party Printers, software, digital camera and other products Printing & Imaging Systems Dell started selling Printers in 2003 Majority of Printers are based on Lexmark Technology Extremly aggresive prics for printers build market share in the higher-margin toner replacement business (2/3 of HP‘s operating profit) All printers feature Dell Ink/Toner management system software Unit growth Year-over-year second quarter: 77% (No. 2 in the US) Digital Home Entertainment Market Diversification of Dell traditional markets Sucess important for growth Q2 Growth-Rate: 35%
32
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 32 Servers & Networking Servers (majority of revenues in this segment) PowerEdge line: industry standard servers (x86 architecture) No. 2 worldwide: Market share: 27.8% (Q2-CY05) Networking Products PowerConnect switches Competitive prices to create additional sales of storage products Higher margin enhanced services Q2 Growth-Rate: 9% Unit Growth-Rate: 25%
33
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 33 Enhanced Services Managed Services IT management services Professional Services Help business utilize emerging technology Deployment Services Configure and deploy Dell systems and products into IT environment Support Services Varietey of customized services and support programs e.g. warranty upgrades and services Training and Certification Services Online training programs and IT certification Q2 Growth-Rate: 41%
34
Stefan Eisner December 1, 2005 34 Storage Strategic allicance with EMC Dell/EMC storage products 2001 5-year alliance; 2003 extended for additional 2 years Own line Dell PowerVault Products External storage, tape backup products, network attached storage, fibre channel array, storage area networks and rack solutions Q2 Growth-Rate: 26%
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.