1. Historic Political Tools The Role of Violence, Coups and Revolutions

2. History doesn’t stay in the past ◦ Elite groups endure; hard to displace; possible ◦ Applies to governing instruments too ◦ Tools used to take and use power Interested in violence, coups and revolutions ◦ Think of bad, old movies set in LA

3. Violence Coercive force Especially associated with authoritarian rule ◦ Unaccountable to public ◦ Unrestrained by law Characterizes much of LA’s history

4. Coup Coup d'état = golpe de estado Military force used to change govt Five models ◦ Historic ◦ Personal  Could turn into personal dictatorships ◦ Institutional

5. ◦ Bureaucratic Authoritarian:  Institutional and transformational ◦ Emerging: Ecuador, 2000; Honduras, 2009  Military takes power but hands over to civilians immediately ◦ Reform coup  Brazil-1889; Venezuela-1945, 1957, 1992; Peru-1968 ◦ Counter-coup  Coup against coupsters

6. What recent model suggests ◦ Civil elites pass buck to soldiers  Soldiers break impasse among civvies ◦ Civil unrest still worries soldiers  But mil-gov not practical now  hand-back Remember about military as elite ◦ Some places more than others

7. Last question: Why mil-gov not useful? ◦ When: post-Bureaucratic Authoritarian ◦ Why: Extreme levels of violence + poor economic management  Even in Chile; disastrous in Argentina  Arg mil stayed on sidelines in 2001-2 collapse ◦ People are poisoned! Post-Cold War: Utility declines

8. Revolutions Broadest: Armed overthrow of government; so includes golpes Narrower: Armed overthrow of govt that produces long term changes ◦ New elite or new forces join elite ◦ New policies ◦ New groups admitted to citizenship ◦ Examples: English Revo, 1689; American Revo, 1775-83; LA independence

9. Narrowest: Social Revolution: Armed overthrow of govt that brings long-term changes to govt and produces major social changes ◦ Hierarchy of power and prestige ◦ Examples: France, 1789; Mexico, 1910; Russia, 1917; China, 1949, Cuba, 1959 Preferred usage in PoliSci and SocSci

10. Peaceful revolutions? Possible ◦ Successful: Post- Communist Eastern/Central Europe ◦ Failed: Guatemala, 1944-54; Chile, 1970-73 ◦ Early days yet: Venezuela, 1998 Look at Mexico, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua

11. Mexico, 1910 What happened ◦ Porfirio Díaz, Francisco Madero, Pancho Villa, Emiliano Zapata, etc. ◦ Nationalist & reformist  Constitution of 1917 ◦ Ten violent years + 10 more before stability ◦ 1929: PNR  PRM  PRI

12. Outcomes ◦ More national control of economy ◦ Rise of a Mexican middle class  Sometimes called last bourgeois revolution ◦ Significant economic development, 1930s-70s ◦ Has stuck, though much changed Many in PoliSci say it isn’t a social revo ◦ Peasants and workers still excluded ◦ Cf. France, 1789

13. Bolivia, 1952-1964 What happened ◦ MNR, COB, Victor Paz Estenssoro, los indigenas – the Indian majority ◦ Nationalize mines; end semi-feudal servitude for indigenous; land reform ◦ Nationalist revolution ◦ But armed peasants and workers

14. Soon encountered economic dificulties Divisions within the MNR A move to the right under pressure from Washington By 1964 falls to a golpe militar Had aspects of a social revolution Couldn’t consolidate political side

15. Cuba, 1959- Last Spanish colony ◦ Then US neo-colony ◦ Little democracy; much dictatorship Important: Guerrilla insurgency ◦ Guerrilla – military strategy ◦ Guerrilla – political strategy First guerrilla insurgency to take power in LA

16. Lots of imitators over next 30 years Cuba special: very brief insurgency: 3 yrs ◦ Nicaragua: 18 yrs; China: 22 yrs Cuba special 2: New Socialist Man ◦ Pursued from ‘59 to Fidel’s illness, 2006 ◦ Culture/values > economics: Marxist? Now changing under Raúl: Chinese or Vietnamese model: communist capitalism

17. Nicaragua, 1979-1990 Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional, FSLN ◦ Guerrilla: 1961-79 ◦ Fought Somozas ◦ Split in ‘77 among three “tendencies” ◦ Reunited  form 9-man National Directorate ◦ Won with multi-class alliance; many radical Christians

18. Governing Junta, 1979-84 Elections, mainly clean, 1984: FSLN wins ◦ Daniel Ortega president; power shifts from 9 to him ◦ Counterinsurgent war, 1981-90 Elections, ‘90, FSLN loses big; goes into opposition

19. Sandinistas important for two reasons Multi-class alliance brings victory; not just peasants and workers Accept electoral loss; not a vanguard party with a dictatorship of the proletariat

20. Revolutions in retrospect Mexico’s stuck best, then Cuba’s; Nica and Bolivia bring up the rear All sought to remake society Mexico had most luck, then Cuba Had to be political revolutions, too

21. Violence in retrospect Any government can use violence Authoritarian, non-democratic, govts most prone to do so. Why? ◦ Unaccountable and opaque ◦ Won’t leave power if they don’t want to Problem in LA (elsewhere, too) ◦ Long non-democratic history makes force still look like the best answer.