1. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 1

2. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 2 Objectives °Predict the Response of a Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons °Develop Response Models for use as Targeting Aids Facility Vulnerability Analysis Program Started in 1995 Primary Sponsor DTRA Other Current Sponsors: DIA NRC

3. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 3 Facility Kill Probability Facility Core Melt Probability Facility Downtime Estimates Facility Model Editor Event/Fault Tree Editor Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code VISAC Integrates the Following Functions in one Code Provides: Facility Damage/Consequence Contour Maps VERY FAST “what if”Analysis for Various Accident/Incident Scenarios

4. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 4 VISAC – Truck Bomb

5. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 5 Aerial Attack

6. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 6 Terrorist Attacks Against American Targets Using Car-Bomb Technology

7. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 7 Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code for Facility Vulnerability Analysis

8. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 8 User Describes Attack (Incidents)  Defined Accident – specific systems fail  Component Damage – individual components fail with specified probabilities  Region Damage – all components in an area fail  Quick Blast – place any size charge, weapon, truck bomb, etc. inside or outside of a building using TNT, C4,, etc.  Multiple incidents can be specified with any combination or timing

9. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 9 Facility Models – Basic and Detailed  Geometry  Based on BRL-CAD format  Facilities consist of buildings made of concrete walls  Critical components inside or outside buildings  Logic  Critical components grouped together into fault trees for each system  Event trees group together the systems and evaluate consequences  Multiple aspects can be examined at once (facility kill, core damage, fire, etc)

10. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 10 Current Facilities – Basic Models

11. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 11 Current Facilities – Detailed Models

12. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 12 Midsize Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

13. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 13 Reprocessing Plant MBLM Code Aerosol Release Resulting Temperatures and Pressures

14. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 14 Russian Designed Power Reactor

15. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 15 A Detailed Facility

16. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 16 VISAC Output  Consequence probabilities for each event tree  Failure probabilities for each fault tree system  Facility downtime estimate  Release information (for HPAC)  Lists of walls broken and hole size estimates An Example  3500 lbs TNT truck bomb outside of control room  97.7% probability of a large early release  Facility would be unable to operate for 4 months

17. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 17 Graphical Presentation of VISAC Output

18. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 18 Grids of Blast Points – Threat Contours  Each library facility has 3 pre-calculated grids  User can search grids for specific outcomes  User can generate new grids for his own plants  Grid points can be used as incidents (attack points)  VISAC has automated grid creation for new plants

19. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 19 Three Ways To Use VISAC  View library facilities and their pre-calculated grids of blast points  use viewers to explore the geometry and logic  search grids for specific outcomes  Run “what-if” scenarios using different attacks on the library facilities  accidents, component damage, bomb blasts  find release probabilities, facility kill & downtime  Create a new facility based on the library model and add new buildings  model any aspect of facility operation  calculate grids of blast points  use just like a library facility

20. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 20 Bob Morris Oak Ridge National Laboratory P.O. Box 2008 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6363 Phone: 865-576-5878 Fax: 865-574-9619 MorrisRH@ORNL.gov Facility Vulnerability Program

21. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 21 BACK UP Slides

22. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 22 Model Fidelity Effect on Facility Vulnerability Results Building Level vs. Component Level Models Building Level Component Level

23. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 23

24. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 24 PWR Transient Event Tree

25. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 25 PWR LOCA Event Tree

26. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 26 PWR LOOP Event Tree

27. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 27 PWR LPLA Event Tree

28. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 28 Fault Trees for Calculating Core Melt Probabilities

29. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 29

30. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 30